·----···· --- - - ·-···--- ····· ----·· --· No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-1-3-5-1-1 MEMORANDUM - · • 0 p SECRET· THE WHITE HOUSE - tt I WASHINGTON TOP SECRET-SENSITIVE CONTAINS CODEWORD August 22 1977 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI SUBJECT Information Items Assessment of South African - Intentions to Test a Nuclear Device An assessment by working-level representatives of Intelligence Community agencies of the non-technical · factors bear-ing on a South African decision to test a nuclear weapon has concluded --The South African government plans to proceed through the various stages of a nuclear weapons program including the eventual• testing of a weapon --There are no discernible overriding pressures on South African leaders to rush to test a weapon in the i1 111lediate future ·vorster might be persuaded to delay a test for a short time if · there were indications that a major turnaround in U S policy tQward South Africa was possible or if he judged that a test could undermine sensitive ongoing negotiations e g on Namibia --Nonetheless there are no foreseeable circumstances that would lead to a termination of South_Africa's long-standing program to develop a nuclea·r weapon and no foreseeable credible threat from ·the West which would be sufficient to deter the South Africans from carrying out a test once they had made up their mind to do so The assessment points out that because of uncertainties regarding the state of South Africa•s · test readiness and the availability of south African-processed fissionable material for a test the foregoing conclusion are necessarily based on certain assumptions about South Africa's nuclear program In particular it was assumed that the South Africans without specific additional foreign assistance or consent could conduct a nuclear test within a matter of weeks and that they could continue nuclear weapons dev lopment thereaft r wi hout foreign assistance DOE and DOS review s ' ' NLC review for NSC equities TO co ttd ET tJn OhiAr tinn rn nAr l u ifir tinn nOR OA Q · tJI C- 1- -fi-1-1