No Objection To Declassification 2009 06 15 NLC-1-3-5-14-7 MEMORANDUM • • TOP SECRET -ttl THE WHITE HOUSE - WASHINGTON TOP SECRET-SENSITIVE CONTAINS CODEWORD August 25 1977 DOE review completed MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT NLC Review Completed FROM ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI Information Items SUBJECT Berlin Press Coverage of Mayor Stobbe's Visit with You U S Mission Berlin reports that with only one minor exception all of West Berlin's dailies on Tuesday gave front page headlines to Mayor Stobb 's meeting with you Major coverage was given to your --acceptance of the invitation to visit Berlin --reassurances of U S support for Berlin and --statement indicating that Stobbe has a direct line to the White House in time of crisis Yesterday's press followed up with lengthy editorials recounting in favorable terms the highlights of Stobbe 1 s talks in Washington The mission notes that the extensive press coverage of Stobbe's meeting with you capped three days of extensive and positive reporting on his trip and it appears that the visit has had all the positive psychological and political impact that was intended ON-FILE NSC RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS State Speculates on Future South African Nuclear Pr • State speculates that South Africa will cancel or ' Yne its plans for a nuclear explosion -- but probably not its nuclear weapons program South Africa may well feel it is well served for the present by a position in which it is only suspected of having nuclear weapons Despite the South African assurances State believes the Kalahari installation was intended as an underground nuclear test site and that South Africa has had an active nuclear weapons program It is possible that the South Africans have not yet actually developed a testable device thus enabling them to claim that they do not have nuclear explosives But it seems unlikely that the South Africans would have pro6eeded this far in preparing a test facility without having such a device ready or nearly ready The following are some possibilities which might explain the South African assurances · DIA re-review completed Tnp s· FCR FT _ t _ 1 DIA and DOS review s completed __ _ No Objection To Declassification 2009 06 15 NLC-1-3-5-14-7 No Objection Tzeclassification 2009 06 15 N LC-1-3 14-7 TOP SECRET-SENSITIVE CONTAINS CODEWORD I 0p sEC RET -2- --The South Africans may have decided to bow to international pressure cancel their impending test and drop future nuclear weapon developmental_efforts However State feels it unlikely that international pressures -- especially the preliminary type applied so far -- would force abandonment of South Africa's nuclear weapons_ program --The South Africans fully intend to test as soon as they are ready not only for military reasons but to bolster internal morale and show the world that South Africa is a power to be reckoned with The assurances would then be delaying tactics to keep critics at bay until a test --Pretoria will not make a decision on a future test until it has a better sense of how strongly the U S and its allies feel about the matter It may have concluded that the publicized discovery of the test site will meanwhile have nearly as much favorable political and military impact as an actual test Any existing or future devices can be secretly stockpiled and it ill be difficult for South Africa's friends -- or enemies -- to be certain whether or not South Africa is a nuclear power At the same time the recent South African assurances could not be proven false State believes this to be the most likely poss· ibili ty • - PLO an Resolution 242 The PLO appears to be making progress toward formulating a form of acceptance of Resolution 242 which meets the criteria the u s has su ested ave persuaded Arafat to ma ea statemen tat accept Israel's right to exist Embassy Beirut reports that in return for Arafat's statement the PLO wants the U S to agree privately that it will make a public statement later which would say that the u s believes --the PLO represents the Palestinian people --the Palestinian people should live independently in their homeland and TOP SFCRET No Objection To Declassification 2009 06 15 NLC-1-3-5-14-7 25X1 No Objection T eclassification 2009 06 15 NLC-1-3 4-7 TO p SECRET - TOP SECRET-SENSITIVE CONTAINS CODEWORD -3- --the PLO should participate in any negotiations of a settlement which involve their fate and interests Ambassador Parker commented that Arafat will have great difficulty getting his rank and file to accept this formulation If Arafat pursues the issue hard State believes he could get the PLO leadership to accept at the cost of strengthening the rejectionists South African Feeler on Intelligence Exchange The military intelligence director of the South African defense forces Brigadier Van der Westhuizen has proposed to the U S defense attache that Washington provide comprehensive data on Angola's order of battle The South Africans argue that with this information they could accurately evaluate the threat to Namibia and establish a basis for scaling down their forces there Westhuizen said the foreign affairs ministry had not been consulted on this proposal a statement State is inclined to doubt The Department comments that the South Africans probably realize this proposal is a non-starter but took the opportunity to stress again their fears of Cuban and Soviet intentions in southern Africa Moscow Continues Comment on South Africa's Nuclear Potential Moscow radio in a domestic broadcast in Russian yesterday continued to support the Soviet contention that South Africa is seeking a nuclear capability The obvious secret assistance of the western powers in the development of South Africa's nuclear research and nuclear industry has been going on for some three decades What is more this cooperation is an integral part of the efforts of the NATO powers to create an immense military machine in South Africa •••• the racists and their imperialist patrons have made southern Africa one of the world's hotspots TOP SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2009 06 15 NLC-1-3-5-14-7