- Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 j· TES GOVERNMENT Memorandum TO Executive Director FROM Richard Lehman u ' _ _ -plMIV • - SUBJECT 1 _ You may want to raise with the DCI a My attempt Paras S0-S7 to write around the President's role b The propriety of discussing CIA-DIA differences in a paper to go outside CIA Paras 2 s 6• 23 c The further surfacing of the Checklist involved in any wider dissemination of this paper 2 I think it would be desirable to ask the Deputies for further comments Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 n ---- - - - - - Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 I 6 2 d I 15 November 1962 MEMORANDUM FOR Executive Director SUBJECT New Draft of Cuban Study 14 - J Y _ 1 Attached hereto h Copy-- NO J ' of a revised draft of the memorandum CIA Handling of the Soviet Build-up in Cuba Please return any --e-arl-ier undat6-4 draft w dch -you-new----ho 1 d - 2 In addition to correction of minor inaccuracies and some editorial work the following major revisions have been made a Expanded comments on SNIE 85•3 Paras 27-29 b Fuller treatment of the role of Opa Locka etc Paras 40-49 c Clarification of circumstances and purpose of DD I's requirement for NPIC corroboration Para 44 d Rewrite of Para 45 of the old draft to reflect existence of a later ban on publication Paras 50-57 e Statement that the San Cristobal site not collection of ELINT had first priority on 14 August mission Paras 63•64 6 2 d RICHARD LEHMAN -- ____ I Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2Q 3 05 9 C03121004 Tl_______7 _ _ -l 6 2 d 14 November 1962 MEMORANDUM FOR Director of Central Intelligence SUBJECT CIA Handling of the Soviet Build-up in Cuba 1 July - 16 October 1962 A The Background 1 The USSR's decision to develop Cuba as a military base must have been made by the spring of 1962 and preparations within the USSR must have been under ·way from that time on There also must have been planning activities in Cuba particularly reconnaissance and survey work The only indication of these operations which has so far been found is a single intercepted personal message on 11 April to a Russian in Cuba who had previously been at the Kapustin Yar missile test range This fragment was not judged solid or important enough to warrant inclusion by itself in current intelligence publications 2 Thus until the first evidence of the deployment began to come in late in July Washington had no warning of the USSR's intention Intelligence officers dealing with Cuba were focussing during July on the direction SovietCuban relations would take following Soviet acquiescence in Castro's assertion of his leadership of Cuban Communism in the Escalante affair This attitude was reflected in reporting on the visit of Raul Castro to Moscow early in the month The President's Intelligence Checklist which will normally be used in this memorandum as the record of CIA reporting to the President Secretaries of State and Defense General Taylor and McGeorge Bundy reported on 4 July that Raul was probably seeking more Soviet military aid and specifically more advanced equipment such as the MIG-21s and surface-to-air missiles which the USSR is already providing to Indonesia Egypt and Jraq The Checklist of 19 July t however noted that Raul had 'Ielt Koscow without the usual publicity and communiqu and surmised that this was a pretty good sign that the visit was unproductive The Central Intelligence Bulletin whenever coordination permitted carried material generally similar to the content of the Checklist 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d T 3 The Intelligence Community view of the Cuban problem in this period was crystallized in NIE 85-2-62 The Situation and Prosscts in Cuba passed by USJB on l August 1962 as the inte igence foundation for MONGOOSE This estimate stated that a By force of circumstances the USSR is becoming ever more deeply committed to preserve and strengthen the Castro regime The USSR however has avoided any formal commitment to _protect and defend the regime in all contingencies b We believe it unlikely that the Bloc will prov de Cuba with the capability to undertake major independent military operations overseas We also believe it unlikely that the Bloc will station in Cuba Bloc combat units of any description at least for the period of this estimate c The Soviets ••• would almost certainly never intend to hazard their own safety for Cuba's sake but have sought to create the impression that Cuba was under the protection of their missile power d We believe that the Bloc will continue to limit its military assistance to Cuba to defensive weapons Such a policy would not preclude the provision of more advanced jet fighters surface-toair missiles and modern radars or even the pr ovision of a token number of IL-28 jet light bombers ••• u - 2T 6 2 d ------------ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d B The Soviet Operation Begins 4 During the last two weeks of July Soviet ships carrying equipment and personnel for the build-up made their first voyages to Cuban ports the first arriving in the period 26-29 July Knowledge of some of these movements reached CIA through routine intelligence coverage of Soviet shipping before the ships reached Cuba No particular significance is normally attached to such voyages Howev er evidence gradually accumulated that the behavior pattern of these ships was similar to that of Soviet ships carrying arms to other countries that even greater security measures than usual were in effect that a number of the ships were coming from Baltic rather than Black Sea ports that some of these were passenger ships and finally that there was a general movement of Bloc shipping toward Cuba on an unprecedented scale 5 Apparent y the fiwst recognition of unusual activity in any intelligence publication was a note in a daily re ie of economic intelli ence for CIA internal use 3 3 h 2 nvo ve ________ _ - m e nt_t -o--_ _ ___ _ _ ease some are c•rr in 3 3 h 2 6 2 d 6 CIA was also in disagreement with DIA over interpretation of intelligence on the movement of shipping to Cuba throughout the month of August The resulting difficulties in coordination of tbe Central Intelligence Bulletin held up publication from 3 Xugust to 9 August of the first item on the Cuban build-up in that publication As late as 29 August DIA in its own daily Intelligence Summary said that The high volume of shipping probably reflects planned increases in trade between the USSR and Cuba ••• There were further difficulties resulting fl om CIA-DIA he interpretation of photography _ _ - _ _ Soviet ships the reL c- or s- --o w - s- - ·- t- -1---w -ca-s - I if ere • Ion 3 3 h 2 -J- Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 ____ ___ ___ __ right Finally it should be noted that there is a long history of CIA efforts to obtain better photography I nd faster service in returning these pictures to Washington 6 2 d 3 3 h 2 7 The Checklist reported the accumulating information ful l y to the President On 4 August it s ated that Eleven Soviet ships are on their way to Havana and we strongly suspect they are carrying arms Such a delivery would not be far short of the total amount of arms delivered in the first half of 1962 On 9 August it said Soviet shipments· to Cuba have been arriving on an unprecedented scale since mid-July Some 32 vessels are involved at least half of these we believe to be carrying arms Five passenger ships with a total capacity of about 3 000 persons have already arrived Some of the personnel are said to be Soviet technicians and we have no reason to doubt this We do not believe there are any combat troops ·among them 8 The DCI on 8 A gust briefed the Republican Policy Committee emphasizing tbe arrival of Soviet military equipment and technicians Two days later at a MONGOOSE meeting be again stressed the importance of this intelligence and raised questions as to what purpose was behind the sudden movement of men and materiel He said that the United States must face the possibility of the USSR locating MRS Ms in Cuba as a step that it could justify because of US missile bases in places like Italy and ' furkey 9 Soviet operations in August involved primarily the establishment of surface-to-air missile and coast defense missile positions By the middle of August CIA was receiving a large volume of agent and refugee reporting which while understandably garbled and fragmentary enabled analysts to pinpoint areas of construction and identify some ot the equipment coming in On 18 August the Checklist reported There are grounds for thinking that the large influx of Soviet military equipment and technicians into Cuba lately could be connected with the beginning of construction of surfaceto-air missile sites What we know so far is that the shipments have included quantities of electronic transportation and construction equipment some of it similar to Soviet equipment which showed up in Indonesia for the building of SAM installations and that many of the arriving Soviets are construction personnel There were further Checklist items along the same line on 23 and 28 August -4- 6 2 d Approved for B-elease 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 T _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ c 6 2 d The July Overfl tght Progra 10 On 10 July General Taylor motivated primarily by the extensive use of aerial reconnaissance in following Chinese Communist military activities in Fukien had asked the DCI for a comprehensive review of aerial photography activities The end-product of this exercise was a series of memoranda dated approximately 16 July from the DD I to the DCI The one on Cuba recommended that U-2 flights over Cuba be continued at their current level of two a month It cited inter alia in justification that earlier missions over Cuba had provfaed conclusive evidence that recurring ·reports of submarines and missile bases in Cuba have been false and that our most important need is for any evidence of the deployment of SA-2 missiles and or MIG-21s in Cuba This proposal was approved by tha Special Group on 19 July and later by the President 11 The first of the two Cuban U-2 missions authorized for August was flown on 5 August probably just too soon to detect significant reflections of the Soviet equipment entering the island at that time The second mission was originally scheduled for 8 August but cancelled because of weather The next day the Special Group gave the DCI discretion to fly the second August mission whenever the immediate situation with regard to Soviet materiel justified it COMOR reaffirmed its requirement for the second mission on 13 August The mission was again scheduled for the period beginning on the 19th held up for 9 days by weather and eventually flown on 29 August See Para 19 -5- 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 I ________ 6 2 d ___J 20 The 29 August mission had confirmed the establishment of a missile defense of Western Cuba The first mission for September of the two which had been authorized as a routine matter by the Special Group on 19 July see para 10 was flown on schedule on 5 September and revealed similar defenses in Las Villas Province In retrospect it can be seen that the two groups of SA-2 sites surrounded the areas in which MR BM and IRBK site construction was planned Photography of these areas in the 29 August and 5 September missions however gave no recognizable evidence that any such construction was then under way although re-examination showed a few vehicles and some construction material at Guanajay Site l on 29 August In fact there was probably no ballistic missile equipment in Cuba at the ' time see discussion in paras 36-39 • 21 Kore detailed readout of the 29 August mission had by about 6 September led CIA analysts to suspect the presence of another kind of missile site--possibly surface-to-surface-at Banes on ·the northeastern coast General Carter so informed the President and the Secretaries of State ·and Defense on 6 September No equivalent of such a weapon had been identified in the USSR in earlier U-2 photography Lacking such background further information and study were necessary to determine the characteristics and range of the missiles Programs for both were set in motion 22 COMO at the request of the Secretary of State on 9 September reviewed the vehicles available for reconnaissance of Banes The next day General Carter in a memorandum to the Secretary of Defense requested necessary actions including Special Group approval to provide for the employment when directed by higher authority of tactical-type reconnaissance against the cruise-missile site at Banes At the Special Group meeting of 14 September a JCS representative briefed on capabilities for low-level coverage of certain targets in Cuba however the Secretary of Defense was recorded as not wanting _the operation considered further until results of further U-2 reconnaissance of these targets were available i e General Carter's proposal had been overtaken by the decision on U-2 coverage taken on 10 September see paras 24-25 Meanwhile further analysis of the 5 September photography had resulted in a CIA study dated 14 September which concluded definitively that the Banes site was intended for a short-range coastal defense missile A fully checked-out item appeared in the Central Intelligence Bulletin of 18 September -10- c________ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 ____ J 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 _____________ mp flECPUI __ D 6 2 d Promulgation of NSAM J81 and the Response 12 On 21 August the DCI attended a meeting in Secretary Rusk's office at which were also present Secretary McNamara Under Secretary Johnson the Attorney General Generals Taylor and Lemni tzer and McGeorge Bundy He told this group that in-• formation available since 10 August indicated the extent of Soviet aid was much greater than previously thought and that this probably included highly-sophisticated electronic installations or missile sites probably ground-to-air The DCI again raised the possibility that the Soviets would locate MRBMs in Cuba and there developed a discussion of possible US courses of action in case they did so It was agreed that the DCI would fully brief the President the next day which he did and that Rusk McNamara Gilpatric Taylor Bundy and the DCI would discuss the situation with the President on 23 August 13 At the meeting of the 23rd a number of actions were decided upon to deal with what was agreed to be a critical problem for the United States These actions were formalized in NSAM 181 In addition the President asked for a continuing analysis of the number and types of Bloc personnel and equipment in Cuba Thus by 23 August CIA had alerted the highest levels of the government to a rapidly unfolding Soviet military development in Cuba including the probable establish-ment of surface-to-air missile sites and the danger of sur'facoto-surface missiles Furthermore the President had taken action on the intelligence received There was at this time no evidence of any sort that surface-to-surface weapons were being installed--in fact the MRBM units had scarcely started en route from the CJSSR--but the possibility had been discussed by the President and his advisors 14 The paragraphs of NSAM 181 applicable to CIA dealt with a release of information b MONGOOSE and c An analysis which should be prepared of the probable military political and psychological impact of the establishment in Cuba of either surface-to-air missiles or surface-to-surface missil s which could reach the US The first two subjects are outside the scope of this memorandum the third exists as a memorandum dated 31 August prepared largely by McGeorge Bundy and the DD I This paper which had the benefit of preliminary results of tho 29 August U-2 mission concluded that the introduction of surface-to-air missiles was the most probable present Soviet mis-• sile activity and that such missiles would be a serious threat to aerial reconnaissance but not to determined US attack It stated that surface-to-surface missiles with nuclear warheads would constitute a very significant military -6- Tl Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d threat to the continental US '' The memorandum concluded that introduction of any missiles will have a substantial political and psychological impact while surface-to-surface missiles would create a condition of great· alarm 15 In a memorandum of 27 August General carter reported to Mr Bundy what actions CIA was taking in response to HSAM 181 He named the officers responsible tor the three items mentioned above and listed the following additional measures a Task Force W was to look into the possibility of removing restrictions on mounting clandestine operations out of Guantanamo b The Board of National Estimates was to establish a procedure to ensure continuing analysis of the numbers and types of Communist Bloc personnel entering Cuba quantity and types of Bloc equipment and its probable use and all construc-tion particularly missile sites c The Board was also to assess the physical and psychological dangers to the US and Latin America of missile installations in Cuba The two Board actions which were later synthesized in the paper which eventually appeared on 19 September as SNIE 85-3 had already been set in motion by the DD I in a memo to the AD NE of 24 August d CIA was to begin immediately publishing a daily paper on Cuba including current intelligence estimative assessments and coverage of the press to be distributed to the President Bundy McNamara Gilpatric Lemnitzer Rusk Taylor and Robert Kennedy This paper the Cuban Highlights memoran-dum was issued by CIA beginning 27 August using a philosophy and format similar to the Checklist A few additional officials were later added to its distribution It was discontinued on 19 September because General Carter and the DD I concluded tbat sufficient emphasis was by then being given to Cuban reporting in regular intelligence publications e CIA would arrange intelligence collection overflights as frequently as the situation demands The results of this action make up the central theme of this paper f Task Force for MONGOOSE B Plus w was to prepare a plan f operations 16 The minutes of USIB show that at its next meeting 29 August Mr Bilsman requested an SNIE on the military buildup in Cuba to be submitted to USIB at its next regular meeting -7- 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 T 6 2 d _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ -J Presumably Mr Bilsman was also acting in response to NSAM 181 In any case the paper he requested and the Board memorandum already requested by the DD I were combined Successive drafts of such a paper prepared by the ORE staff were quickly overtaken by the photography which became available after 29 August At the USIB meeting of 7 September further attempts to write it were deferred until the new information could be digested 'lhis estimate SNIE 85-3-62 was in fact passed by USIB on 19 September Its substance will be discussed later See Paras 26-29 17 Also at the 29 August USIB meeting two other pertinent subjects were discussed First General Carter and · Cline raised the question of more rapid delivery I I 3 3 h 2 - - - - of Navy photography of outbound Soviet s hips see para 6 Second General Carter informed the Board that he had two days earlier asked General Lemnitzer about the possibility of low-level photography using RF-101 or F8U aircraft and that Lemnitzer had replied that something could be dug up The conversation with Lemnitzer was the result of an instructi n telephoned from out of town by the DCI who was concerned over the long delay of the 29 August mission by weather The DCI depa ted Washington on leave on 23 August went first to the West Coast left the country on 30 August for the Riviera and returned to Washington on 23 September On 30 August Lemnitz•tr told the Special Group of this discussion with General Carter The Group agreed to take cognizance of the matter and reopen it when specific targets and information needs could be identifittd -8- - - - - -- - - Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 T E 6 2 d L __ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ Bard Intelligence on the Build-Up Defensive Phase 18 Uuring the last week in August CIA continued to follow the progress of the Soviet build-up using shipping information coD111Unications intelligence and agent and refugee sources The Checklist of 29 August reported that There is no sign of a let-up in the movement of Soviet equip111ent and personnel into Cuba By latest count there have during the past six weeks been some 80 voyages to Cuban ports by Bloc vessels and 20-35 by ships under CoDU11Unist charter We note that deliveries of industrial equipment foodstuffs and other nonmilitary items are being made largely on chartered Western ships probably because so many Soviet ships are involved in hauling military gear 19 The first hard evidence on what the Soviets were up to in Cuba was provided by photography of the 29 August mission The President was told in the Checklist of 31 August that Preliminary information ·trom the 30 iic7 August U-2 mission shows at least seven SA-2 sites on the western half of the island Manning of this many sites would require some 1500-2000 Bloc troops We are able to report on the basis of what is known so far that construction of the sites appears to be fairly advanced and that there are canvas-covered missiles in the vicinity of some sites The existence of additional sites can probably be assumed The same source reveals seven or eight Soviet missile-equipped torpedo boats and an undetermined number of Soviet tanks The Cubans have had Soviet tanks for some time but this is our first indication that they now have boats of this type They appear to be KOJ4All-class- converted PT-boats mounting two surface-to-surface missiles with an estimated range of 35 nautical miles After further analysis this information appeared in the Central Intelli ence Bulletin of 6 September On the 4th and 5th Genera Carter riefed a number of congressional leaders including the Senate Foreiin Relations and Armed Services Committees In a White House statement also of 4 September the President publicly confirmed the presence of SA-2s and KOMAR-class boats -9- TL Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d I -------------l T 23 One additional item was picked up by the 5 September mission the presence of an assembled MIG- 21 at Sant a Clara airfield along with several others I This 3 3 h 2 was not reported by CIA in the Checklist but was reported in the Cen ral lbllletlli of 8 September Actua l l -- these l G-211 _ - --- - r-- -- - --r---r--- - C' - r- - - a- - -_j 3 3 h 2 had arrived in Cuba about 1 p e er a oar a ov e s p which had been photographed en route but the photographs were not received in Washington for several weeks Upon the arrival of these and photographs of other ships carrying IIIG-21L Ian item was published in the Central Intelli- 3 3 h 2 gence Bulletin of 27 September--with DIA withholding concurrence see para 6 --that between 22 and 30 MJG-21s had been delivered to Cuba This informatioR was also reported in the Checklist of 27 September Jnte111unce -11- 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d F The New Overflight Program 24 The results of the 29 August and 5 September miasions in particular the confirmation of SA-2 sites led to a full review of the overflight program for · Cuba This took place ln the White Bouse on 10 September Among those present were Mr • Rusk Mr • Robert Kennedy llr lfcGeorge Bundy General Carter and Oeneral Lansdale The decisions of this m eting are crucial to the record and some discussion of the atmosphere in wh t ch they were taken is required There were three major factors a On 30 August a SAC U-2 had overflown Sakhalin Island The U$SR had protested on 4 September the US had acknowledged the overflight and the incident has received majo'r play in the world press Tbis had been followed on 8 September by the loss ot Mission GRC-127 over Communist China accompanied by even greater publicity As a result most of the participants were--to varying degrees--reluetant to chance another U-2 incident at this time • This meant that they were naturally he• 1taDt to authorize any flights Qver areas where SA-2s' might be operational b Second there is no record that the MR BM problem was discussed The bard int lligence gathered so far on the Soviet build-up the Banes problem was still up in the air was not such as to produce a sense of alarm or a feeling that urgent action was re uired The establishment of SA-2s and other advanced defensive systems had· been foreseen in the NIE of 1 August and their probable arrival had been fully r ported during the intervening period· Hence confirmation came not as a shock but as a problem to be dealt with deliberately It may even have served to reJax the sense of urgency generated by tbe President's decisions of 23 August the known usually being less alarming than the unknown The participants therefore felt that the next step was to provide systematic coverage of the rest of Cuba from which the full story of what the USSR had put into the island could be developed They felt no immediate need tor re-coverage of the areas covered by the two previous missions c Finally the participants were operating in the atmosphere of the time The Cubans had been claiming that U S invasion was imminent The Soviet d_iplomatic and propaganda apparatus was attempting to focus atiention -12- 6 2 d L--- - - - - - - -- -_J Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 T ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ ___ 6 2 d on Berlin and hinting at a confrontation late in the year thus creating the impressio that a Berlin crisi--s would not come until after the US election In fact the USSR in its statement of the following day 11 September on Cuba stated this explicitly There were vague hints of Khrushchev's intent to attend the UNGA in New York Khrushchev appears now to have been throwing up a diplomatic smoke-screen behind which to carry out the deployment of strategic forces into Cuba but those present at the meeting of 10 September did not have the benefit o this hindsight l'urthermore they must all have been acutely aware that Cuba was potentially the campaign issue tbat could most seriously damage the Administration_ in the election campaign then beginning 25 At the meeting the Secretary of State objected to f the CIA proposal for two extended overflights covering the Jf ' rema_inder of the ·i sland not covered in the 29 August and 5 6 _' f r't September missions He insisted instead that coverage of J ' A the rest of CUba should be designed so that peripheral flights1r over· international waters would not be combined with over flights of CUban territory To meet his wishes the program was divided into four flights two overflights and two peripheral One overflight was to be over the Isle of Pines and the otber over the part of Cuba east of 77° West to cove Guantanamo and Banes 0ne ·peripheral flight was to cover the north coast of eastern Cuba the other the south coast The overflights would be quick in-and-out operations while all four were to be designed for maximWD safety There is apparently no written record that a decision was made not to fly over known SA-2 sites but in obtaining approval tor the tracks it was necessary to provide assurance that they id not do so Later the DCI negotiated with the Department of State permission to extend the Isle of Pines mission over tbe Bay of Pigs area of CUba proper The President' approved this program authorizing three flights in September in addition to the one remaining of the normal September allocation Special Group action of 19 July Thus the record shows that the President authorized everything the Special Group requested -13- -----------' Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d T ____ __ _ __ G ___ SNIE 85-3-62 26 The lack of urgency expressed in these decisions was also reflected in the deliberations over and the content of SNIE 85-3-62 The Military Build-up in Cuba passed by USIB on 19 September This estimate which was generated by the issuance of HSAM 181 must be viewed as a symptom of the state of mind in the Intelligence Community and in Washington generally dur ing · the first half of September There were no dissents and no major disagreements in preparation of the final draft Its key findings are as follows a ''We believe that the USSR values its position in Cuba primarily for the political advantages to be derived from it and consequently that the main purpose of the military buildup in Cuba is to strengthen the Communist regime there against what the Cubans and the Soviets conceive to be a danger that the US may attempt by one means or another to overthrow it The Soviets evidently hope to deter any such attempt by enhanc-• ing Castro's defensive capabilities and by threatening Soviet military retaliation At the same time they evidently recognize that the development of an offensive military base in Cuba might provoke US military intervention and thus defeat their present purpose n b The Soviets themselves are probably still uncertain about their future military program for Cuba Indeed they probably intend to test US and Latin American reactions as they go along c As the build-up continues the USSR may be tempted to establish in Cuba other weapons represented to be defensive in purpose but of a more 'offensive' character e g light bombers submarines and additional types of short-range surface-tosurf ace missiles ••• d ••However they are well aware that the question of offensive as opposed to defensive weapons in Cuba has become a major political issue e The establishment on Cuban soil of Soviet nuclear striking forces which would be used against the US would be in•• compatible with Soviet policy as we presently estimate it It would indicate a far greater willingness to increase the level of risk in US-Soviet relations than the USSR has displayed thus far •• • Bowever Soviet military planners have almost certainly considered the contribution which Cuban bases might make to th 3 - 14- L Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d - soviet strategic posture and in that connection the feasibility and utility of deploying nuclear delivery ystems to Cuba Therefore this contingency must be examined carefully even though it would run counter to current Soviet policy f Soviet planners might see some utility in deploying MRBMs and IRBMs to Cuba in order to supplement the limited number of ICBMs now believed to be operational in the USSR and to reach targets beyond the range of submarine-launched missiles g The establishment on Cuban soil of a significant strike capability with such weapons would represent a sharp departure from Soviet practice since such weapons have so far not been installed even in Satellite territory ••• The soviets might think that the political effect of defying the US by stationing Soviet nuclear striking power in so menacing a position would be worth a good deal if they could get away with it However1 they would almost certainly estimate that this could not be done without provoking a dangerous US reaction _ h • Although the Soviets may see some military advantages in Cuba as a strategic strike base the risks would be great and the political implications would run counter to the kind of policy they are actually pursuing in Latin America They do not propose to win the region for communism by mili tar·y conquest They count instead on a process of political action 27 In commenting on these statements it must first be recognized that the judgment·on the degree of risk which the USSR was willing to accept was gravely in error It should also be recognized that the community was virtually unanimous· in s_upport of this judgment deployment of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons outside the USSR was without precedent Further while the first ballistic missiles had probably arrived in Cuba in the period 7-15 September 1 see para 37 the first reports from ground observers who had seen them had not arrived in Washington by 19 September there was no evidence available that 14RBMi i were on the way What the estimate failed to do however was to give adequate weight to the pace at which Soviet operations were moving and to the great probability that the new installations were manned by Soviet personnel The community was still thinking in terms of the rather deliber a tely-paced Soviet military aid pro-• grams for the UAR Iraq and Indonesia and indeed for Cuba in the 1960-62 period when there was already good evidence that the Cuban program had departed from this pattern 28 Moreover the Indonesian program too had broken the pattern only a month before 1 when the USSR showed itself willing to accept a substantially increased degree of risk for the -15- T_I-------Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d sake of a political gain something less than vital to Soviet interests The original contracts for Indonesia had been roughly similar to those for the UAR and Iraq They included 14 SA-2 sites 12 KOMARs 26 TU-16s 12 equipped with air-tosurface missiles and 12 submarines all to be manned by Indonesians and to be delivered at a pace consonant with the required training of personnel However as the crisis over West New Guinea approached its climax of August Soviet eagerness to embroil the Indonesians in open warfare with the Dutch led them to accelerate delivery schedules and to permit the use of Soviet personnel to operate some of the weapons being provided Six submarines manned by Soviet crews actually conducted war patrols under nominal Indonesian command Thus by mid-August the USSR had shown itself willing to take some risk of military engagement with an ally of the United States albeit the degree of risk involved was far less than in the Cuban venture 29 For the record there is no evidence that the existence of SNIE 85-3 had any inhibiting influence on later decisions It was not for instance cited· to support an argument against continuing overflights Nor did it affect eurren-t intelligence reporting this is conducted independently of the estimative process and provides a check on the continuing validity of standing estimates -16- I ____ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 T I___________ 6 2 d ' -ir' H Views of the DCI 30 The only available record of dissent from the judgments ma e in Washington during the first half of September both estimative and operational is that of the DCI himself who although vacationing on the Riviera was kept informed by CIA cable On 7 September he cabled General Carter urging frequent repeat reconnaissance missions and stating th•t 0 my hunch is we might face prospect of Soviet short-range surface-to-surface missiles of portable types in Cuba which could command important targets in Southeast US and possibly Caribbean areas On 10 September the DC I again cabled Difficult for me to rationalize extensive costly defenses being established in Cuba ••• appears to me quite possible measures now being taken are for purpose of ensuring secrecy of some offensive capability such as MRBMB to be installed by Soviets after present phase completed and country secured from overflights Suggest Board of Rational Estimates study motives •••• The Board's response is in effect contained in SNIE 85-3 31 On 13 September and again on 16 September the DCI repeated these premonitions Jn the latter cable he added Do not wish to be overly alarming this matter but believe CIA and conununity must keep Government informed of danger of a surprise and also that detection of preparatory steps possibly beyond our capability once Cuba defense system operative Finally on 20 September the OCI expressed reservations on the £Onclusions of SNIE 85-3 which had been cabled to him saying as an alternative I can see that an offensive Soviet base in Cuba will provide Soviets with most important and effective trading position in connection with all other critical areas and hence they might take unexpected risks in order to establish such a position These views were provided to the DD I and the Board of Rational Estimates 32 As a result of the DCI's pressure there was a renewed examination of other methods of reconnaissance of Cuba Jt should be noted here that this discussion was in terms of what might be necessary after the establishment of a complete SA-2 defense had made use of the U-2 impossible with the implicit thought that only at this point would the Soviets risk the introduction of such weapons as MR BM On 19 September at USIB General Carter stated his desire to use RF-J Ols over Cuba He also said he thought use of the FIREFLY drone over Cuba could be justified to the Special -17- L________ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 --------------l 6 2 d Group adding that we cannot put a stop to collection in Cuba otherwise the President would never know when the point ot decision was reached The Special Group at its next meeting approved consideration of the use of FIREFLY • d COKOR forwarded to USIB on 27 September a program for its use No FIREELY missions have yet been attempted 33 Another attempt during this period to get additional coverage was the progra111J11ing of KEYHOLE Mission 9045 29 September - 2 October to photograph Cuba The results were unsatistactory largely because of cloud cover -18- 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d T _______ _____J I CJA Reporting during September 34 The progressive uncovering of the Soviet program in Cuba was reported in detail by CIA current intelligence Pertinent samples from the Checklist are a The number of confirmed SAM sites remains at 12 but the likelihood that others are under ·construction grows with the latest evidence pointing to the Isle of Pines as one of the additional locations 14 September 3 3 h 2 c We have spotted two more Sov i et passenger vessels en route to Cuba Their arrival will raise our estimate of technicians on the scene to about 4 200 We are beginning to see some tenuous evidence foreshadowing the appearance of SAM sites in Camaguey Province 18 September 3 3 h 2 e Evidence is still coming in on Moscow's canvass of its military forces for volunteers to serve in Cuba This activity is puzzling we have never seen anything like it before The move may be purely administrative to replace personnel who had been suddenly ordered there witb others prepared to stay for some time On the other hand it could mean another sizable increment to Soviet personnel in Cuba or a belief in Moscow that its people are likely to be engaged in combat We are trying to get a better answer 21 September -19- Tr-- _______ __J Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d - - - - - - - -- - - - ' t Our running account of the number of Soviet dry-cargo vessels making the voyage to Cuba since midJuly is now over 100 About 85 of these probably were carrying military hardware The Cuban Foreign Office on Tuesday ordered Western orrespondent• to put in for new credentials by today telling them that all of Cuba beyond Havana's city limits is out of bounds except by special permission 27 September 35 During this period General Carter at the President' 11 instructions briefed General Eisenhower on the Cuban situation on 10 September On 12 September he briefed the Bou•• Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees Although out of time sequence it should also be noted here because the information presented was essentially more of the same that the DCI again briefed General Eisenhower on 3 October and Congressman Cannon on 9 October -20- 6 2 d --------- Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d J L------- - - - - - - - ' The Soviet Offensive Deployment 36 At this · point it is necessary to retrace a few steps in time and discuss what was actually going on in Cuba Examination of information now available makes it possible to outline with a fair degree of confidence a · time-table of the Soviet program which is generally consistent from site to site This begins with the construction of SAM defenses first in the west around San Cristobal and Guanajay then in ce tral Cuba around Sagua la Grande and Remedios finally in th rest of the island Next in each case comes the eviction of local inhabitants at each site road improvement and the establishment of restricted construction areas Finally comes the arrival of equipment at each site according to what appears a carefully prepared schedule Apparently no recognizable missile equipment was moved to the MRBM sites and no major construction was begun at the IRBM sites until at least two weeks after the last U-2 overflight of the area and until the US had publicly acknowledged the presence of SA-2 sites in Cuba 7 The first large pieces of equipment for the MRBK sites near San Cristobal were probably shipped from the USSR on the ship Omsk which arrived at Mariel on 7 or 8 September A second shipment followed on the Poltava which arrived on 15 September This equipment was moved £0 San Cristobal Y truck at night with the first convoys probably arriving at the sites about 17 September That is 17 September is the earlie t date at which photography might have detected the first MRBM equipment at San Cristobal 38 Construction equipment and material for the Guanajay fixed IRBM sites began to arrive at Mariel about mid-August minor activity of an indefinite type was noted there in the 29 August photography and major construction had probably begun by 15 September The fact that shipments to Guanajay started before those to San Cristobal reflects the longer lead-time required for construction of a fixed site It is not possi le to say how soon after · 15 September the activity might · have been recognizable from the air as an IRBM site 39 The sites in Las Villas Province were established on a slightly later but similar time scale Equipment for the Sagua La Grande IIRBM sites was probably landed at Casilda on the south coast The most likely ship to have carried the large items is the Kimovsk 1 which docked -21- T _I-------------' Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 ___ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ __ 6 2 d there on 22 September This equipment must have moved to the site durinc the last week of Septembe·r and was probably detectable from photography after 1 October The Remedios IRBM site construction was parallel to tbe Guanajay schedule but also about two weeks behind Photography of 5 September was negative but road improvement began shortly thereafter and a flow of construction material from t e port of- Isa-be la on the north coast began The estimated date for the beginning of ·major construction 1s about 1 October Again the date at which the site acquired a recognizable photographic signature is not determinable -22- ------------' Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d K ---------- The Targeting of San Crist 40 Although the sites themselves were closed to ground observation the movement of equipment to them from the ports was in fact seen by CIA agents and by a number of individuals who later fled to the US The agents reported this information as soon as they were able but in most cases had to depend on secret writing for communication Hence there was a lag of several days at least before their information became available Refugee reports were delayed considerably longer for other and uncontrollable reasons--the time of the individual's decision to leave Cuba his discovery of means for doing so and his delivery to an interrogation center Many of the reports so received dealt with unidentifiable construction activity Many of them because of the time-lags noted above did not arrive in Washington until after 14 October and some are still coming in '- 41 Nevertheless by about 1 October the San Cristobal area had been pinpointed as a suspect MR BM site and photographic confirmation had been requested This represents a considerable technical •ach ievement To understand why it is again necessary to back-track in time Since the moment of Castro's triumphal march into Havana the Intelligence Community had been flooded with reports of Soviet weapons shipments and missile installations in Cuba There were several hundred such reports claiming the presence of everything from small arms to ICBMs before August 1960 i e before the USSR had supplied Cuba with any weapons at all More specifically CIA's files contain 211 intelligence reports this does not include press itj_ms on missile and missile-associated activity in Cuba before ·1 Jan 1962 All of these were either totally false or misinterpretations by the observer of other kinds of activity Cl _ anal_ys t s had naturally come to view all such reports with a high degree of suspicion 42 On 15 February 1962 an tnterage ncy interrogation center was established by CIA at Opa Locka near Miami to handle Cuban r3fugees nd i · · telligence collected3 3 h 2 e es a s men o pa ca n reports of missile activity· received in Washington When the efensive phase of the Soviet buildup began the volume of Opa Locka reporting rose very rapidly and provided good information on the types of equipment coming in on the use of Soviet personnel and on thesecurity precautions imposed by the Soviets on this operation Such reports were the basis for the Checklist item cited in para 9 -23- TL Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 J 6 2 d 43 For the better part of two years CIA had been checking information obtained from refugee defector and agent sources with NPIC whenever it was apparent that the information was of a kind that could be verified or negated by aerial reconnaissance In May 1962 NPIC began publishing a series of formal listings Photographic Evaluation of Information on CUba in which these reports were evaluated in the light of photogra- phic -coverage In the 7 issues of this publication between 31 May and 5 OCtober NPIC examined 138 raw reports referred to it for comment Of this total only three cited missile activity which could not be linked directly to the SA-2 and cruise missile deployments • NPIC's evidence negated those three 44 Whe the first indications of build-up began to come in in August these procedures were further tightened CIA current intelligence was ordered orally by the DD I's office on about 14 August not to publish any information on the construction of missile bases in Cuba until they had been checked out with NPIC This instruction was in the field of intelligence technique rather than of policy it had no relation to later restrictions see para 50 Between 14 AuguSt and midOctober this office sent NPIC 13 memoranda asking for a check on 25 separate reports containing information which was thought to raise the possibility of Soviet offensive weapons in Cuba A great many more such reports were checked with NPIC informally by telephone In all cases NPIC either lacked the necessary coverage or made a negative finding 45 On 20 August the COMOR Targeting Working G1·oup chaired and staffed largely by CIA set up the first comprehensive card file system for Cuban targets An example of its procedures is the handling of targets in the Sagua La Grande area Based on refugee reporting the COMOR Targeting Working Group on 27 August pinpointed four farms in this area as suspect missile sites Readout of the 29 August coverage showed an SA-2 site near Sagua La Grande which apparently was the basis for the reported activity there and the target card was changed to show a confirmed SA-2 site It should be noted that knowledge that this site was in the area could have led analysts to misinterpret any subsequent reports of MRBM activity as part of the SAM development but in fact no such reports were received 46 By September the volume of agent and refugee reporting had become very large indeed During the month 8 2 reports on internal activities in Cuba were disseminated exclusive of telegraphic dissemination The CIA clandestine collectors report that their output represented only the small publishable fraction of the raw material collected A substantial -24- R E T _ _ _ _ __ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d proportion of these dealt with the deployment of defensive missiles and related activities Knowledge on the part of the analysts that such a deployment was in fact going on plus the normal difficulties encountered by untrained observers in telling an offensive missile from a defensive one tended to throw a sort of smoke-screen around the Soviet offensive deployment when it finally began The CIA analytic'apparatus however recognized nd correlated the first authentic reports of MR BM equipment ever to be received in Washington and took action upon them It targeted the San Cristobal area not as another location where alleged missile activity should be negated by photography but as a suspect SS-4 site 47 This process took about three weeks from the date when the first observation was made on the ground in Cuba to the preparation of the target card The two reports from Opa Locka which triggered it were a An observation in Bavana on 12 September of a convoy carryt·ng long canvas-covered objects which the source identified under interrogation as resembling SS-4s This report which was disseminated by CIA on 21 September contained sufficient accurate detail to alert intelligence analysts b An observation on 17 September of a convoy moving toward the San Cristobal area This information received on 27 September dovetailed in many respects with the earlier report 48 The arrival of the second report led CIA analysts to a tentative conclusion that the two observers had in fact seen the same convoy and that there was a possibility of the SS-4 i dentification being genuine A day or so earlier a target card on San Cristobal had been prepared on the basis of a vague report of Russians building a rocket base Now this card was removed and with the two reports cited above and other less specific information on activity in this area which was beginning to trickle in a new card was prepared between 1 and 3 October which was in effect a priority requirement for photographic coverage This card was used in the targeting of the 14 October flight see para 63 It read as follows Collateral reports indicate the existence of a restricted area in Pinar del Rio Province which is suspected of including an SSM site under construction particularly SS-4 Shyster The area is bounded by a line connecting the following four town Consolacion del Norte 8332K 2244W San Diego del Los Banos 8325N 2235W San Cristobal 8301N 2243W and Las Pozos 8317N 2250W Requirement Search the area delineated for possible surface missile construction with particular attention to SS-4 Shyster -25- _ _ _ _ _ __ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 E T_ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ ___ 6 2 d 49 Ar ther report too general to be used in the process described s ·J ve is nevertheless of interest as the first good information d1str 1 buted on the Soviet offensive build-u'Q On 20 Se mber CIA disse• inated an agent report that 3 3 h 2 I L J said on 9 September 0 we bave 71-ml le range guide d mi ssiles both surface-to-surface and surface-to-air and we have a radar system which eovers sector by_ sector all of the cuban air space and beyond as far as Florida There are also many mobile ramps for intermediate range rockets ' ' -26- L Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d T ____ _ _ _ _ _ __ ____ L Limitations on Publications 50 At some point probably just after 27 September an item on the subject of possible strategic weapons in Cuba might have been written for CIA current intelligence publications It could not be written because there was an injunction not to do so By the time that hard information began to come in early in September the USIB principals had become acutely conscious of the distinction publicly made by the President between offensive and defensive weapons in CUba Aware that they were dealing with an explosive political issue and aware also that leakage of intelligence on offensive weapons true or false would seriously limit the President's freedom of action in dealing with what might become a major international crisis they had evolved a system for limiting dissemination of such information Analysis would continue and senior policy officials would be briefed but no material would appear in formal intelligence publications without the approval of the USIB principals These instructions were first issued orally and l ater on 11 October formalized by USIB in the ''PSALII system 3 3 h 2 The key passages in USIB's order were Such - -n -o rm a- o n --- o r intelligence will be disseminated outside each USIB intelligence component only to specific individuals on an EYES ONLY basis who by virtue of their responsibilities as advisers to the President have a need to know and There is no intent hereby however to inh bit the essential analytic process I 51 It should also be noted that the order no to publish anything on missile sites without NPIC corroboration Para 44 had never been rescinded The effect this would have had on reporting in late September and October if the other ban had not been in effect is difficult to determine 52 These restrictions did not apply to the Checklist but the Checklist writers drew for their Cuban information largely on the Cuban Daily Summary a compendium of reporting on Cuba published by CIA Since the Summary was affected by the restrictions this practice imposed by the sheer volume of raw material coming in on CUba had the effect of cutting the Checklist off from information on offensive weapons 53 Moreover nei tber the Checklist group nor any other current intelligence officers- lcnew that the possibility that a Soviet strategic missile base might be established in Cuba had been raised by the DCI and seriously discussed by the President and his advisors more than a month earlier See Para 13 In other words the thrust of NSAM 181 had been so watered down by -27- TL --- Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 · _ _ _ _ _ __ 6 2 d ___ time and bureaucratic process that it reached the working level only in the form of SNIB 85-3 which held that establishment of such a base was most improbable See however para 29 54 It is difficult to say whether information from ground sources would have been published had there not been a blanket injunction against it The analysts too were sensitive to the potential political impact of the reports they were receiving this would not have influenced them against publication but would have made thf i · 1 want to be doubly sure especially on a subject with a history reaching back to our Man in Havana In addi tic n rigid co···1 partmenta tion was maintained between the COMOR- -Special Gro 1 organization responsible for collection and the intelligence mponents responsible for analys s Few if any CIA analysts tr rking on the CUban problem even had IDEALIST clearances As u result they did not know that no overflights of Pinar del Rio and Las Villas were included in the September program or that this program was seriously delayed They had no way of knowing that the photographic verification they had requested would not be soon forthcoming and th y might well have delayed publication from day to day in hopes of rece'iving 1 t 55 Nevertheless it can be established that if the injunction against publication had not existed there would have been some reflection of the refugee reports in the Cuban Daily Summary which is not highly selective In retrospect it seems quite p 5ssible--but by no means certain--that they would then have been picked up in the Checklist but it is extremely doubtful if they would have survived the coordination process for the Central Intelligence Bulletin Thus at the most the President might have learned that there was suspicious activity around San Cristobal slightly more than a week before he apparently did 56 In sum the CIA analysts believed they had done their duty by targeting the San Cristobal area for photographic cove l a ge but no word of their concern over activity in this area had appeared in an intelligence publication It appears highly probabl that the Special Group first heard of this concern at its meeting on 9 October when see para 63 it ordered a U-2 mission which covered the area 57 The gap of 7-10 days between the key analytic correlation of reports and the Special Group meeting can probably be attributed to the cumbersome processes of the administrative structure supporting the Special Group This machinery was designed to provide elaborate justifications and back-up paper work before each decision was made procedures reaching back into the early history of U-2 operations over the USSR They were intended for the control of deliberate strategic reconnaissance of the USSR and not for a fast-moving situation such as that in Cuba which was rapidly becoming tactical In fact after readout of the 14 October mission they were jettisoned -28 _ ___ _ _1 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 M _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___J 6 2 d Pro1resa of the September Overflight Program 58 While the MRBX and IRBX deployment continued and · the first good ground report• began to filter out ot Cuba the tour-flight reconnaissance program approved on 10 September was being pushed forward Unfortunately this program was seriously delayed by bad weather Not until 26 September could the first successful mission be flown over Banes and Guantanamo A mission was flown on 17 September but its targets were completely cloud-covere4 On 27 and 28 September the weather was bad again but on the 29th the Isle of Pines - Bay of Pies mission was succeasfully flown The weather again turned bad until 3 October when the south coast peripheral mission was accomplished The next day the north coast peripheral mission aborted but was successfully completed on 7 October 59 Thus completion of the September program took 26 days from 12 September--the earliest date on which ·missions approved on the 10th could have been- flown--through 7 Oc tober On 20 of these days weather was bad over the areas not yet overflown the criterion tor launch was a forecast of less · than 25 percent cloud ·cover On four days successful missions were flown On one day a mission was launc¥d but aborted and one day was used to alert a mission which was launched the following day Availability of aircraft was not a limiting factor 60 These miaaions accomplished their purpose i e they- established almost ·completely the location of SA-2 sites on the island They did not--and since they were destgned to avoid SAM-defended areas could not--detect the ballistic missile deployments then under way The combined eft ct f the Special Group decision of 10 September and ihe weather conditions of the period fol owing was to delay consideration of what r connaissan e activities should next be undertaken over Cuba until early October -29- 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 M L _I_ _ _ _ _____Jl The Special Group Decision o t 6 2 d 9 October 61 By late September the delays in accompli bing the four-flight program coupled with a mass of evidence that the Soviet build-up continuing had generated a greatly i reased sense of urgency in Washington It should a1ain be noted hmvever that high-level consideration of the possibility that IIRBX8 might be deployed to Cuba had always been in terms of Soviet action after the SA 2 defense was fully operational There is no documentary evidence of action directed toward the overflight of SAIi-defended areas until the Special Group Augmented meetin of 4 October At this meeting the DCI pointed out that U-2 fli hts were now before the last two mission• of the 10 8eptellber program restricted by the presence of SAM aites to the southeastern quadrant of Cuba According to the minutes of this meeting it was questioned fi'y the DCJ7 whether thi• waa a reasonable restriction at this time particularly since tbe SAIis were almost certainly not operational The Group then ordered the NRO to prepare an overall program for reconuaiasance of Cuba for presentation at the Group's meeting of 9 October w • 82 On 8 October COIIOR provided to the__no a memorandum entitled Intelligence Justif Lcation and lequirementa for Overfli1ht of Cuba for use in this presentation Para Al of this paper stated that there L• now a pressing and continuing need for up-to-date inte1111ence on the progress of the Soviet arma build-up in Cuba The very ·hi1heat level• of the government are dependent upon th la intelli1ence to assist in making policy decia lons Of immediate and vital concern to the nation Para Al coppnent ln1 on the absence of coverage of western Cuba • inoe 29 Aucu • t included the atatement that Ground ob • ervera have in several recent instances reported sightings of what they believe to be Soviet IIRBlls in Cuba These reports must be confirmed or denied by photo coverage Attached to the memorandum were a number of target lists on which the area previously tarpted around San Cristobal appear• tocether with reconmendation• for attack of particular target • by satellite U-2 obliqu FIREFLY or FBU-lP BF-101 photocraphy USIB considering thi• paper on 6 October reco111111ended to the Special Group full cover a s• of two of these li• ta which did not •pec lf lcally include Ian Cristobal but which by its nature would have covered that area and the other balli• tic mi•aile aitea as well -306 2 d - - - - - - -- - - - - - - ' Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 ' Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d 63 At the Special Group meeting on 9 October MRO's first recommendation was A U-2 probe over the suspect IIRBII site as soon as weather permits This referred to the area targeted by COIIOR near San Cristobal see Para 48 • The operation which was to be supported by ELINT collection aircraft off the coast also was designed to pass over one of the SA-2 sites which was thought to be most nearly operational Thus the secondary objective was to d termine the status of SA-2 defenses 1n order to measure the risk involved in getting complete U-2 coverage of Cuba• as rapidly as possible NRO's second recommendation was therefore conditional If there is no SA-2 reaction to the initial U-2 sortie maximum coverage of the western end of the island by multiple U-2s · simultaneously as soon as weather permits There were also certain other recommendations for low level oblique and FIREFLY missions 64 The Group gave first priority to the San Cristobal mission and recommended to the President that be approve it The President gave his approval--presumably learning of the San Cristobal reports at this time--and the mission was immediately mounted It was delayed by weather however from 10 through 12 October On that date operational control was transferred to SAC There is no reason to believe that the transfer in any way delayed launching the m1ss1on which SAC flew on 14 October The pilot did not fly the prescribed track but took a course at an angle to it Fortunately the planned and actual paths crossed over Ban Cristobal and tbe primary mission was accomplished 65 After this mission had been approved but before it bad been flown CIA received on 10 October Havy photogr·a phs taken two weeks earlier of the Soviet ship Jtastmov off Cuba These photographs showed clearly identifiable Ilr28 crates which later showed up in U-2 photography of 17 October--along with a number of others which must have come in on unphotographed ships--at San Julian airfield in the western tip of the island The information appeared in the Checklist of 11 October ·66 During this interim period the DCI briefed the CIA Subcommittee of House Appropriations on 10 October on the build-up including the IL-28 He also commented on IIRBMs essentially along the lines of his cables from Nice para 30 adding that there were many experts who did not believe the Soviets would make such a move but that he differed with them Be told the Subcommittee that he had authority for an overflight in the next day or so General -31- T __I___________ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d T'---------- -------_J Carter said much the same thing to Senator Saltonstall the following day 11 October In reply ·to Saltonstall's question about Senator Keating's charges of known MRBM sites in Cuba General Carter said that there were refugee reports but no hard evidence and that CIA hoped to photograph the areas in the next day or so General Carter also briefed Senator Stennis on 15 October before the photography of the previous day was available again along the same lines -326 2 d Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 • Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d O - - - - -- - Notification of the President 67 By tbis time photocraphy from the 14 October mission _had arrived in Washington and readout had· begun The Director NPIC contacted the DD I in the early evening of the 15th to inform him that a possible IIRBM site bad been identified in the San Cristobal area The DD I notified General Carter the DCI being out of town General Carter told him he would notify General Taylor and General Carroll of DIA at dinner and llcGeorge Bundy if he was present As -the readout progressed during the evening the information became firmer and the DD I decided not to wait until morning to notify White House and State Department officials About 2200 he passed the information to Mr Bundy and Mr Bilsman who notified the Secretary of State The following morning 16 October General Carter and the DD I briefed Bundy in detail and General Carter at 1100 briefed the President -33- I ------------ Approved for Release 2023 05 19 C03121004 6 2 d w # I « lo ' ' ' t fst 7oct ### @' @ ' r ·- T SECRET ·• - ' _- • ' r _ hn a • I G r I t s 2 _ ____ 62 l h 1 1 h 0 - - - - - - -- - - - c1 This document contains a lion affecting the national security of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws US Code Title 18 Sections 793 794 and 798 The law prohibits its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an unauthorized person as well as its use in any manner prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States or tor the benefit of any foreign government to the detriment of the United States % · % % % 62 L - - - - -- - - -- --- J I '-2_ -I i_« - _ - 0 3 95£1 go 111_0Q 4 ' PPJO_ye_d toi R l a e