MEMORANDUl o Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 NLC-128-9-14-10-4ET '-'1-V I l THE WHITE HOUSE SECRET WASHINGTON _ April 21 1978 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI SUBJECT NSC Weekly Report #55 1 ---• Opinion A Contractual or Fle'Xible For eig•n Policy One thought has been gnawing at me recently that might be worth a minute or two of your reflection As I think about our foreign policy I am struck by the degree to which it can be rightly called a contractual foreign policy i e the major thrust of it is on negotiating agreements or devising formulas It is reminiscent of legal negotiations and it does not adequately take into account the need to manipulate and influence political processes We have thus put a lot of effort into negotiating new proliferation restraints in negotiating new agreements with the Soviets in negotiating new verbal formulas for dealing with the Middle Eastern problem in negotiating and then ratifying the Panama Canal Treaties etc etc Yet foreign policy though involving the foregoing also involves the need to influence attitudes and to shape political I 1 • fevents This requires a combination of additional steps none _'e of which we have yet truly employed In some cases what is needed is a demonstration of force to establish credibility and determination and even to infuse fear in some cases it 1 r requires saying publicly one thing and quietly negotiating -7 · I something else in many cases what is needed is prolonged and sustafned exchange of political views so that even our enemies share or at least understand our perspectives Often it does not require solvin'l problems but striking the right posture and sometimes letting problems fester until they are ripe for action 7 Examples of the foregoing would include quiet efforts to maniJ ulate African leaders to obtain desired results willingness to back some friendly country very strongly so that it in turn is prepared to use its force on our behalf for example I think there is a good chance that by tangibly a SECRET SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 N LC-128-9-14-10-4 bt vf-St 1 SECRET 7 - 7 t 1 backing Morocco with arms we could get Hassan to use his troops for us the way Castro is using his on behalf of the Soviets readiness to use black propaganda to stimulate difficulties for our opponents for example by encouraging national sentiments among the non-Russian Soviet peoples or b_y using deception to divide the Soviets and Cubans on African policy I will be devel some ideas for at this stage I simply wanted to point namely that our foreign policy has to operate on many levels and use many tools The world is just too complicated and turbulent to be handled effectively by negotiating contracts while neglecting the need also to manipulate to influence and to compel f l '1 but • c Asian Neglect I have received recently a letter from a colleague who summarized for me some criticisms of our Asian policy which are shared by a number of Asian specialists In summary form his key points are these Pacific Asia has been accorded too low priority ' The Korean troop withdrawal has been unsettling the timing was precipitate Our naval posture is inadequate to deal with the growing Soviet presence U S weakness vis-a-vis Moscow justifiably causes China to view us as a less attractive partner -- We have not pursued our bilateral relations with China with sufficient vigor -- Our emphasis on normalizing relations with Vietnam makes little sense compared to the need to strengthen our ties with ASEAN countries -- Our human rights policy has been poorly implemented particularly its emphasis on punitive measures against the violators rather than providing incentives to those with improving records We have failed to use the China card against the ·soviets region SECRET Our weakened relations with Japan concern the entire SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 Nlb D4Kt T SECRET -- In the absence of confidence in U S policy in Asia normalization becomes more difficult for our assurances to Taiwan of our continued commitment to its tranquility become less credible We will be correcting some of these shortcomings shortly the meeting with Fukuda and the Economic Summit ought to improve the economic relationship with Japan and infuse new political vitality into the Alliance the adjustment of combat troop withdrawals from Korea should be welcomed by the Koreans the Vice President's trip to the ASEAN countries will properly place higher emphasis on collaboration with our friends than on our earlier and in my judgment premature efforts to normalize relations with Vietnam we hope to activate step by step our relationship with China In your comments to the press you might consider placing more emphasis on Japan Korea and China 2 Facts Egyptian Diplomatic Strategy Ambassador Ghorbal has just returned from Egypt where he consulted extensively with the Foreign Minister and his top aides as well as briefly with Sadat He has summarized current Egyptian thinking as follows -- The arms package should clear Congress before the United States puts forward its own proposals Secretary Vance had mentioned mid-May and this strikes the Egyptians as being too soon -- as already indicated to you such a tactical delay is in my view justified -- Egypt will be prepared to develop its own ideas on the West Bank Gaza but will explicitly state that Jordan and the Palestinians should assume primary responsibility for negotiations concerning the West Bank It is understood that the initial Egyptian position will be tougher than the eventual U S compromise proposal -- The Egyptians understand the need for closer coordination and they see the key element in our strategy as being the submission of a U S proposal which will ask both sides to make concessions and which Egypt will be able to accept While the general line of Egyptian thinking seems to be in accord with our own views there is reason for concern over the difficulty of fully coordinating our moves Unfortunately Sayyid Marei will not be coming to Washington until June 19 SECRET SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 N LC-128-9-14-10-4 SECRET SECRET Israeli Playback We are beginning to hear some of our own words played back to us by the Israelis For example the Israelis now say correctly that we do not call for full withdrawal until 242 and that we can envisage long-term security arrangements which would permit Israeli military installations beyond Israel's political borders We will need to be careful not to have our views interpreted as support for substantial border changes and Israeli military outposts After all if the Israelis are allowed to keep military positions in the west Bank the need for major border changes on security grounds is reduced The more significant the Israeli mil¢ary presence in the West Bank the less the justification for major border changes Impressions of Salisbury Tom Thornton of my staff traveled with Secretary Vance on the African leg of his current trip Tom's discussions in Salisbury left him with these impressions -- Militarily the insurgency has not slackened and the government has been unsuccessful in bringing the guerrillas back Indeed it seems afraid to try The key to the credibility of the government is dismantling the protected villages and releasing detainees Politically Muzorewa controls at the least the cities The desire for peace is pervasive so the internal settlement cannot be written off -- Neither side seems very confident than the political basis for compromise is present If the present stalemate holds for a while the prospects for an all parties conference increases 3 Alert Electronic Surveillance Bill The Senate version was passed on vote of 95 to 1 on Thursday afternoon Meanwhile the House Intelligence Committee has put off finishing up its markup until at least Monday The Committee reportedly is split down the middle on the desirability of allowing warrants especially when no U S citizens are involved It is also believed that if the Supreme Court were in the Humphrey case to confirm your power to authorize electronic surveillance for foreign intelligence purposes it would SECRET SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 N LC-128-9 4 j o- i J '--' -'-'I _ SECRET 1 5 seriously erode support for the bill in the House Thus by winning the Humphrey case we could help defeat the Administration's sponsored electronic surveillance legislation JCS Opposition to CTB The Chairman JCS Dave Jones has sent a memo to Harold Brown stating that they oppose a complete ban on nuclear testing because of stockpile reliability problems They also oppose the concept of a CTB of potLentially limited duration -- one that would have a review conference after five years or so at which time the parties could opt out for less than supreme national interest reasons e g the stockpile problem had not been solved • Copies of this memo are floating around the bureaucracy already The likelihood of it leaking to the press is a virtual certainty This of course can have a very adverse impact on our CTB efforts You may want to speak to Harold about it 4 National Security Affairs Calendar see Tab A SECRET l ___ 'i SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 N LC-128-9-14-- _ 10-4i NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS CALEND R '- I- '-' I' ET Ongoing Ambassador Young serves as President of the UN Security Council for April Somalia President Siad in China Week of April 24-29 April 24 Meeting of Warsaw Pact Foreign Ministers in Sofia UN General Assembly Session on Namibia in New York Ambassador Young heads us delegation Secretary Blumenthal attends 11th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Vienna April 25 PRC on US USSR Conventional Arms Transfer Talks April 26 sec on Petroleum Supply Vulnerability Assessment sec on NATO Summit and Special Session on Disarmament Israeli Foreign Minister Dayan visits US for talks in Washington April 27 Private US visit of Malawi President Dr H Kamazu Banda April 28 Secretary Blumenthal attends IMF Interim Committee meetings in Mexico City Looking Ahead April 30-May 7 Prime Minister Begin in US for private visit in connection with Israel's 30th anniversary celebration Late April-Early May Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko visits Rome SECRET sA 11 No Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 N-LC S-9-14-10- '- t'i- ' ·1 2 May l FRG Finance Minister Matthoefer in Washington to consult with Secretary Blumenthal and members of the Joint Economic Committee May 2-10 Vice President Mondale visits the Philippines Thailand Indonesia Australia and New Zealand May 2-3 Japanese Minister Fukuda visits Washington May 4 Secretary Vance begins two-day visit to Mexico visit will mark the anniversary of the establishment of the US Mexico Consultative Mechanism in May 1977 May 4-6 Brezhnev to visit Bonn May 15 Mexican President Lopez Portillo will begin a visit to the Soviet Union and Bulgaria US USSR Anti-Satellite Arms Control Talks tentative May 16 Dominican Republic holds presidential elections May 17-18 Zambia's President Kenneth Kaunda makes state visit to Washington May 18-19 Secretary Brown to attend Defense Planning Committee meeting in Brussels May 20-June 5 US visit of Gambian President Sir Dawda Kairaha Jawara in capacity as President pro tern of CILSS Interstate Committee for the Struggle against Drought in the Sahel To be in Washington and other points for discussion with AID and private organizations concerning aid to the Sahel SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2008 05 30 N LC-128-9-14-10-4 bt vKt 1 May 22-26 Queen Elizabeth will make a state visit to the FRG May 23-June 28 Ambassador Young heads US delegation to UN General Assembly Special Session on Disarmament May 30-31 NATO Summit May 31-June 7 Private visit by Senegalese President Leopold Senghor to meet with you Late May-Early June FRG Chancellor Schmidt to attend North-South summit in Jamaica June 8 President Sir Seretse Khama of Botswana in US to accept honorary degree from Harvard University •• - 3 SECRET