-BECRET ■ BeRET’ THE WHITE HOUSE THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON WASHINGTON December December 31 31 1993 1993 DECLA SIFiED DECLASSIFIED fER 13526 TER E D E 0 13526 'J 0 Xo lp- o 31 · o 3‘A- 1 INFORMATION INFORMATION tt KBVA MEMORANDUM MEMORANDUM FOR FOR THE THE PRESIDENT PRESIDENT FROM ANTHONY FROM ANTHONY LAK LAKt1J SUBJECT SUBJECT I I c 1g ljl'5 1 P2P Your Visit Visit to to Moscow Moscow Your SETTING SETTING You You will will visit visit Moscow Moscow for for your your third third meeting meeting and and second second summit with Boris Yeltsin in nine months summit with Boris Yeltsin in nine months Like Like all all U S U S Russian and Soviet summits before it even in the post-Cold Russian and Soviet summits before it even in the post-Cold War War era era the the stakes stakes are are high high You You and and Yeltsin Yeltsin will will grapple grapple with some tough issues that have brought new challenges with some tough issues that have brought new challenges to to our just in our relationship relationship just in the the last last few few months months Yeltsin Yeltsin is is arguably arguably your your most most important important foreign foreign counterpart counterpart and and support for reform in Russia remains at support for reform in Russia remains at the the top top of of your your foreign policy priorities priorities -progress foreign policy -- and and an an area area of of great great progress --- in in your your first first year year in in office office This previous meetings This visit visit will will differ differ from from your your previous meetings with with Yeltsin in Vancouver and Tokyo in one important Yeltsin in Vancouver and Tokyo in one important respect--it respect--it comes comes at at aa crossroads crossroads in in our our relationship relationship with with Russia Russia and and at at aa critical turning point in Russia's own democratic critical turning point in Russia's own democratic experiment experiment In In Vancouver Vancouver you you and and Yeltsin Yeltsin succeeded succeeded in in establishing establishing distinct economic security and political pillars for distinct economic security and political pillars for aa new new era of partnership with Russia You mobilized $4 5 billion era of partnership with Russia You mobilized $4 5 billion in in support support of of Russia NIS Russia NIS reform reform and and took took the the lead lead in in garnering international support for those reforms garnering international support for those reforms with with the the G-7 G-7 IMF IMF and and World World Bank Bank You You gave gave unflinching unflinching political political support support and and legitimacy legitimacy to to Yeltsin Yeltsin during during the the March March April April and October constitutional crises as well as and October constitutional crises as well as in in the the aftermath aftermath of of the the December December elections elections You You fashioned fashioned with with Yeltsin a new era of cooperation in foreign Yeltsin a new era of cooperation in foreign policy policy and and in in improving improving our our security security and and military-to-military military-to-military ties ties The The results positive moves results have have been been generally generally positive moves toward toward partnership as in the recent Gore-Chernomyrdin partnership as in the recent Gore-Chernomyrdin agreement agreement to to build together an international Space Station build together an international Space Station But partnership and positive direction But this this new new partnership and the the positive direction of of our our relations with Russia are under fresh scrutiny Critics relations with Russia are under fresh scrutiny Critics in in the press and bet too the press and elsewhere elsewhere charge charge that that we we bet too heavily heavily on on Yeltsin point to Yeltsin and and reform reform They They point to aggressive aggressive Russian Russian gECRElf SECRETDeclassify Declassify on on OADR OADR cc cc Vice President President Vice Chief Chief of of Staff Staff SEC ET •seeRET • 2 behavior behavior toward toward its its neighbors neighbors and and to to the the electoral electoral success success of Zhirinovskiy and the communists to support of Zhirinovskiy and the communists to support their their thesis thesis that that the the Russians Russians will will now now revert revert to to aa more more traditional traditional authoritarian authoritarian and and aggressive aggressive posture posture at at home home and and abroad abroad Specifically many believe Yeltsin may have to Specifically many believe Yeltsin may have to slow slow the the economic reforms in the wake wake of maintain economic reforms in the of the the elections elections and and maintain the nationalists by by pursuing pursuing aa tougher policy in the edge edge on on the the nationalists tougher policy in the Baltics Moldova and with Ukraine -as well as the Baltics Moldova and with Ukraine --as well as at at the the Security Security Council Council While While there there are are some some who who believe believe this this to to be be inevitable inevitable that that is not the way we read Yeltsin or his current is not the way we read Yeltsin or his current situation situation We We think think we we can can continue continue close close cooperation cooperation with with Russia Russia to to advance advance our our many many national national --- and and global global --- interests interests at at stake But this will not be an easy task stake But this will not be an easy task It It requires requires persistence considerable persistence considerable diplomatic diplomatic skill skill and and creativity creativity Your top priority in Moscow will thus be to reaffirm with Your top priority in Moscow will thus be to reaffirm with Yeltsin the Vancouver framework for a close U S -Russia Yeltsin the Vancouver framework for a close U S -Russia partnership partnership built built on on aa Russian Russian commitment commitment to to democratic democratic political and market reform political and market reform Yeltsin Yeltsin will will greet greet you you in in Moscow Moscow as as aa man man dedicated dedicated to to reform but burdened by Russia's many problems reform but burdened by Russia's many problems at at the the start start of of its its third third year year of of independence independence He He and and the the reform movement he leads have just emerged from reform movement he leads have just emerged from aa bitter bitter and and turbulent turbulent two-year two-year power power struggle struggle with with the the dying institutions of the old Soviet Union past dying institutions of the old Soviet Union The The past two two years years have have seen seen several several major major constitutional constitutional crises the April referendum crises the April referendum and and the the tragic tragic events events of of October that nearly cost Yeltsin and reformers October that nearly cost Yeltsin and reformers their their political political lives lives Against Against this this backdrop backdrop it it is is aa huge huge achievement that they are still standing at all achievement that they are still standing at all It It is is extraordinary that they were simultaneously able to extraordinary that they were simultaneously able to put put in in place place the the essential essential building building blocks blocks of of aa fledgling fledgling democracy and a Russian-style market economy democracy and a Russian-style market economy The phase of The reform reform victory victory in in the the first first distinct distinct phase of this this century's second Russian revolution does not mean century's second Russian revolution does not mean that that the the struggle struggle for for power power in in Russia Russia is is over over While While the the recent recent elections elections produced produced aa new new post-Soviet post-Soviet constitution constitution and and aa new new parliament the only thing assured is that Russian parliament the only thing assured is that Russian politics politics will will remain remain badly badly fractured fractured with with no no clear clear majority majority view view to to guide the future In the aftermath of the elections guide the future In the aftermath of the elections Yeltsin Yeltsin faces faces stark stark choices choices Russian Russian political political and and social social debate is deeply divided over the pace and direction debate is deeply divided over the pace and direction of of economic economic reform reform the the role role and and rights rights of of Russia Russia in in the the Near Near Abroad with Eastern Abroad and and relations relations with Eastern Europe Europe the the U S U S and and the the rest rest of of the the West West There There is is substantial substantial ambivalence ambivalence in in Russia about how fast to integrate with the Russia about how fast to integrate with the West West in in economics economics and and politics politics Yeltsin Yeltsin enters enters this this new new era era with with several several advantages advantages Despite the difficult past two years Despite the difficult past two years he he remains remains the the country's most visible and popular political country's most visible and popular political leader leader While While the the new new Parliament Parliament will will be be in in theory theory an an alternative alternative source source of of power power to to him him it it will will likely likely be be fractured fractured and and unfocussed unfocussed £ECREY SECRET SECRE •OECREf- 3 for not sufficiently the start to for some some time time and and not sufficiently strong strong at at the start to challenge the basic direction of his policies The new challenge the basic direction of his policies The new constitution provides Yeltsin powers in constitution also also provides Yeltsin with with strong strong powers in foreign policy that give him a measure of freedom foreign policy that give him a measure of freedom in in dealing dealing with with us us and and the the rest rest of of the the world world But But there there can can be be no no doubt that the elections have raised questions at home about doubt that the elections have raised questions at home about his domestic policies that will have have to his domestic and and foreign foreign policies that he he will to answer answer soon soon These These issues issues combined combined with with continuing continuing concerns about the state of Yeltsin's health concerns about the state of Yeltsin's health will will make make 1994 1994 aa pivotal year for his country and for our relations pivotal year for his country and for our relations with with it it II II CORE GOALS CORE GOALS o Reaffirm Reaffirm with with Yeltsin Yeltsin the the foundations foundations of of the the U S U S Russian partnership you designed in Vancouver Russian partnership you designed in Vancouver o Emphasize Emphasize privately privately to to him him and and publicly publicly in in Moscow Moscow continuing strong American support for economic continuing strong American support for economic reform reform and and the the development development of of aa democratic democratic political political system system o Reach Reach out out to to aa broader broader group group of of Russian Russian leaders leaders to to demonstrate our interest in Russia beyond Boris demonstrate our interest in Russia beyond Boris Yeltsin Yeltsin o Seek Seek Yeltsin's Yeltsin's agreement agreement to to continue continue the the historic historic process of integrating Russia economically process of integrating Russia economically and and politically politically with with the the West West o Pursue Pursue specific specific agreements agreements on on four four core core issues issues in in the the relationship 1 new U S ideas to support Russia's relationship 1 new U S ideas to support Russia's economic World Bank IMF economic reforms reforms through through more more intensive intensive World Bank IMF and G-7 assistance 2 Russia's agreement and G-7 assistance 2 Russia's agreement to to help help build build aa new new security security environment environment in in Europe Europe through through the the Partnership Partnership for for Peace Peace 3 3 Russian Russian reaffirmation reaffirmation of of its its intention to be a good neighbor and specific progress intention to be a good neighbor and specific progress in withdrawals to in Baltic Baltic troop troop withdrawals to prove prove it it and and 4 4 conclusion of a historic agreement with Moscow conclusion of a historic agreement with Moscow and and Kiev Kiev to remove all nuclear weapons from Ukraine to remove all nuclear weapons from Ukraine III ACHIEVING THESE GOALS III ACHIEVING THESE GOALS Schedule Schedule You You will will have have aa full full two-day two-day schedule schedule in in Moscow Moscow to to pursue pursue our objectives for the Summit The heart of your our objectives for the Summit The heart of your visit visit will will be four with Yeltsin be four substantive substantive sessions sessions with Yeltsin and and other other Russian Russian government kick-off one-on-one with government leaders leaders aa kick-off one-on-one session session with Yeltsin in the Kremlin to discuss how to keep our Yeltsin in the Kremlin to discuss how to keep our partnership partnership on on track track an an expanded expanded meeting meeting on on economic economic issues issues highlighted by discussion highlighted by discussion of of how how we we can can provide provide the the most most effective reforms and effective international international assistance assistance for for Russian Russian reforms and aa review of our bilateral efforts a working dinner at a dacha review of our bilateral efforts a working dinner at a dacha outside outside Moscow Moscow on on foreign foreign policy policy problems problems especially especially Russian behavior in the Near Abroad Russian behavior in the Near Abroad and and an an expanded expanded meeting on security issues where you will meeting on security issues where you will if if necessary necessary or or SECRET- SECRE -CECRgiF 4 possible possible nail nail down down the the nuclear nuclear discuss nonproliferation discuss nonproliferation issues issues deal with Ukraine Ukraine and and deal with and arms control and arms control In the possibility possibility exists that In addition addition to to these these meetings meetings the exists that you and Yeltsin could meet with Ukrainian President Kravchuk you and Yeltsin could meet with Ukrainian President Kravchuk during agreement to to remove remove during your your visit visit to to conclude conclude aa historic historic agreement all the nuclear weapons from Ukrainian soil all the nuclear weapons from Ukrainian soil You to You will will also also participate participate in in several several events events designed designed to demonstrate our respect for the Russian people and our demonstrate our respect for the Russian people and our interest a broader group of of reformers reformers and and interest in in reaching reaching out out to to a broader group opposition figures Your brief meeting with the the Patriarch Patriarch opposition figures Your brief meeting with of Aleksiy II II will will send a of the the Russian Russian Orthodox Orthodox Church Church Aleksiy send a positive message to the millions of people who are reviving positive message to the millions of people who are reviving Russia's will visit Russia's spiritual spiritual life life You You will visit aa Russian Russian factory factory to meet workers and give symbolic support to privatization to meet workers and give symbolic support to privatization Your leaders and and reception reception Your meeting meeting with with new new Parliamentary Parliamentary leaders with a diverse group of political leaders from throughout with a diverse group of political leaders from throughout Russia who misperceive misperceive our policy Russia will will answer answer those those critics critics who our policy as a Yeltsin-only embrace In fact your schedule has been as a Yeltsin-only embrace In fact your schedule has been carefully arranged so that it does not appear to be an carefully arranged so that it does not appear to be an exclusive One of of the the most most important important exclusive embrace embrace of of Yeltsin Yeltsin One events will be your speech to the Russian people events will be your speech to the Russian people and and aa follow-up question and answer session with young Russians at follow-up question and answer session with young Russians at the Ostankino television studio the Ostankino television studio SUBSTANCE SUBSTANCE As As usual usual the the agenda agenda for for the the summit summit is is full full involving involving aa number of important security economic political number of important security economic and and political issues be to issues Your Your first first substantive substantive objective objective will will be to use the initial one-on-one to focus Yeltsin on the use the initial one-on-one to focus Yeltsin on the imperative the imperative of of reaffirming reaffirming the the foundations foundations of of the relationship and moving forward together on these relationship and moving forward together on these core core issues you that issues We We have have designed designed an an approach approach for for you that poses poses this this question question directly directly and and asks asks for for his his agreement agreement that we will work hard to make progress across the that we will work hard to make progress across the board This is an important meeting that will set the board This is an important meeting that will set the substantive tone for the entire visit substantive tone for the entire visit Economic Economic issues issues will will dominate dominate the the first first morning morning especially given the criticism in Russia that the the especially given the criticism in Russia that reform drive has left average Russians worse off than reform drive has left average Russians worse off than when the USSR collapsed two years ago You will want when the USSR collapsed two years ago You will want to reform in to draw draw Yeltsin Yeltsin out out on on his his plans plans for for reform in 1994 1994 and and determine if he plans any deviation from the course determine if he plans any deviation from the course he he began is twofold twofold that that he he should began in in 1992 1992 Your Your message message is should continue based on on a a commitment commitment continue aa strong strong reform reform effort effort based to privatization macro-economic stabilization to privatization macro-economic stabilization and and fighting we understand understand the the need need for fighting inflation inflation and and that that we for him to provide greater targeted social investments him to provide greater targeted social investments for for Russians with the the G-7 G-7 in in the the Russians If If we we have have made made progress progress with week preceding your arrival you will be able to float week preceding your arrival you will be able to float with western with him him several several ideas ideas for for more more effective effective western assistance to support this effort You will need to to assistance to support this effort You will need make clear our inability to design or fully fund make clear our inability to design or fully fund SECRE SECRE 3EC-ftE¥ 5 targetted targetted social social investments investments --- that that is is clearly clearly Russia's job But we want to help him Russia's job But we want to help him do do so so You You will will also want to review the effectiveness of U S also want to review the effectiveness of U S assistance assistance efforts efforts in in 1993 1993 and and focus focus Yeltsin Yeltsin on on aa more more ambitious effort to promote greater private trade ambitious effort to promote greater private trade and and investment investment Your Your working working dinner dinner on on the the first first evening evening will will focus focus on on two two of the other core four issues Partnership for Peace and of the other core four issues Partnership for Peace and Russian Russian foreign foreign policy policy in in the the Near Near Abroad Abroad We We are are working working to insure that Yeltsin says yes to the Partnership to insure that Yeltsin says yes to the Partnership for for Peace Peace proposal proposal that that you you will will bring bring from from the the NATO NATO meeting meeting in in Brussels Brussels It It is is important important that that he he understand understand this this is is critical critical to to the the long-term long-term mission mission to to integrate integrate aa modern modern Russia into the West It is also critical Russia into the West It is also critical that that he he understand understand that that Russia Russia must must also also be be true true to to important important international norms in foreign policy in order international norms in foreign policy in order to to maintain maintain good relations with the U S and other countries good relations with the U S and other countries You You will will need to let Yeltsin know squarely that a continuation need to let Yeltsin know squarely that a continuation of of aggressive Near Abroad aggressive Russian Russian behavior behavior in in the the Near Abroad risks risks undercutting the core of his support in undercutting the core of his support in the the West West You You can can urge him to take specific steps to make sure this does urge him to take specific steps to make sure this does not not happen happen such such as as agreement agreement with with Estonia Estonia and and Latvia Latvia on on aa withdrawal of Russian troops in early 1994 withdrawal of Russian troops in early 1994 Finally Finally the the most most important important of of the the core core four four issues issues will will be be the centerpiece of your meeting on security issues our the centerpiece of your meeting on security issues our attempt Ukraine to attempt to to work work with with Russia Russia and and Ukraine to conclude conclude an an agreement that would lead to the withdrawal agreement that would lead to the withdrawal and and dismantlement dismantlement of of all all of of the the strategic strategic nuclear nuclear weapons weapons in in Ukraine A successful resolution of this negotiation Ukraine A successful resolution of this negotiation would would be be the the crowning crowning achievement achievement of of the the summit summit aa victory victory for for your nonproliferation policy and would provide your nonproliferation policy and would provide aa strong strong public public symbol symbol of of Russia's Russia's willingness willingness to to work work fairly fairly with with its most important neighbor its most important neighbor •SECRET