CO 6 68 97 21 FIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06689721 Date 09 09 2021 ••' HI ·· 'S1 r RELEASE IN FULL DECLASSIFIED $ $CM ' January 12 1994 MEMORANDUM TO FROM SUBJECT Tony Lake strobe Talbott Kozyrev•s European Security Plan i You recently conveyed President Clinton's interest in Kozyrev•s new ideas on European security and our analysis of them In·a German newspaper over the weekend Kozyrev laid out a five-step approach which he called the Partnership for a united Europe that calls for pla ing NATO the WEU and the CIS under the coordinating authority of the NACC and the CSCE It also would include a system of bilateral security guarantees international funding· for Russian peacekeeping efforts and incentives to limit nuclear proliferation Kozyrev also used the occasion to reiterate Moscow's opposition to adding the Visegrad 4 to NATO arguing that such a move would encourage Russian nationalists to see it as an attack from the West Essentially what Kozyrev is trying to do with his plan is dilute the primacy of NATO to which Russia does not belong create a ew governing structure that includes the 52-member CSCE and NACC in which Russia prominently does belong a d thereby underscore the moral and political equality of CIS and NATO The result would be cumbersome in the extreme -- and probably self-paralyzing Either that or it would recreate blocs under a vague and ineffectual umbrella Kozyrev• s plan is clearly designed to give Russia a bigger piece of the action in European peacekeeping and to create a mantle of international legitimacy plus Western funding for CIS peacekeeping but it would also severely hamstring NATO's ability to act On P4P Kozyrev is generally supportive of Russian · membership if only to ensure that the East Europeans do not get ahead of Russia in security arrangements with NATO In what Moscow would see as a perfect world Kozyrev -- and indeed many of Russia's foreign policy elite -- would much prefer for Russia to be the architect and engineer along with the U S of a completely new European security order It sticks in their craw that NATO appears poised to dictate the terms of the new order and Russia has no choice but to accept a late invitation to a table that has been pre-set by Washington for 45_years At bottom even our most Declassification Authority Geoffrey W Chapman Senior Reviewer A GIS IPS 9 29 2020 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06689721 Date 09 09 2021 c O6 6 8 9 7 2 lFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06689721 Date 09 09 2021 11 SEeRB'f - 2 - enlightened colleagues in Russia have not fully adjusted to the loss of their status as a supposedly co-equal superpower This sense of following rather than leading in the building of a new security order has led to other instances of unhelpful behavior by Kozyrev recently Quite simply and bluntly Kozyrev has become part of the problem rather than part of the solution Toby Gati recently circulated a rather alarming report on her private talk with Kozyrev last month in Moscow I had a 1-on-1 lunch with him at the same time in which he sounded some of the same themes albeit in more muted tones Basically Kozyrev seems to have concluded that both his own personal political interests and Russia's require from him a tougher more nationalistic line The new Kozyrev is likely to push policies policies that will evoke a stern response from us and that will certainly make it harder for us to carry out our strategy of fostering Russia's integration into the west This is'a puzzling disturbing development During the long difficult period that the Soviet Union and the Soviet system were expiring Kozyrev was not just a constructive force but quite a heroic one He championed the USSR's then Russia's aspiration to be a modern civilized state He risked a lot and suffered a lot during that period I for one don't understand what has caused him to shift positions in such a basic way but I can guess It is certainly connected with the backlash against reform and the West that were so evident in the Dec 12 elections and will no doubt be evident in the new Parliament It also has to do with Kozyrev•s decision to run for the Duma from a constituency -- Murmansk -that has a large military population It's a consummate irony that Kozyrev and Zhirinovsky would be the big winners in that district Zhironovskiy has publicly threatened to hang Kozyrev in front of the Foreign Ministry And it also stems from his feeling of continuing vulnerability to the conservatives who will never trust or forgive him no matter how hardline his positions In any event beyond the psychodrama that is playing out here there are very real and quite disturbing implications for policy since Kozyrev still has a lot of influence on Yeltsin When the Vice President was in Moscow we saw a vivid example of how Kozyrev can obstruct desirable developments SE0RE'f · UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06689721 Date 09 09 2021 CO 6 6 8 9 7 2 llFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06689721 Date 09 09 2021 S CRE'f - 3 - and spin Yeltsin in the wrong direction Kozyrev tried his best to block my suggestion of taking Mamedov to Kiev for what turned out to be a key trilateral meeting fortunately Chernomyrdin overruled him on the spot and he then got to Yeltsin just before the VP came to the Kremlin Kozyrev got Yeltsin to open the meeting with a blast -- in front of the TV cameras -- at the Ukrainians for the perfidy and at the Americans for their naivete that word again It was hardly a helpful prelude to the Kiev expedition We've got some reason to believe that Kozyrev has not been helpful this week as we've moved to closure on the trilateral deal Anyway there are severe limits on what we can do about all this but Chris will try to use his meeting with Kozyrev tomorrow to sound some soothing themes and try to reassure him on our plans for Europe Among Chris' points will be o The underlying premise of·our policy-toward Russia· remains firm we think the overall trends are favorable reform will prevail and that is a·credit to President Yeltsin and the key members of his team Kozyrev prominently included o We hope it i apparent how resolQte we are in our determination to work with Russia _toward-its -full integration into the community of democratic nations a· -- one dramatic piece of· -evidence · ·President- clinton•s Partnership for Peace proposal Which - --in' the face •· of considerable pressure ·in another'direction -- opens the door wide to Russia and -preserves the principle of inclusiveness -- --·· - - --- - ··· - -- Another example In his·- meeting--with--President-·-- · -- · Yeltsin President Clinton is right now laying out _ some proposals that we are making to the G-7 in order to make the international financial institutions more responsive to the social dimension of Russian reform o So we're on course Andrei but the seas are rough and they could get rougher We are particularly concerned about the danger that forces mistrustful of the U S and the West in your political environment are on the rise --and that those mistrustful of Russia are on the rise in ours S ECRE' P UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06689721 Date 09 09 2021 CO 6 6 8 9 7 21 IFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06689721 Date 09 09 2021 ssm r - 4 - o We've got a troublesome interaction developing -indeed a potential vicious cycle During the Cold War you and I both saw examples of how hardliners in the us and USSR played off of each other -- That was unhelpful when our countries were on opposite sides of a great geopolitical and ideological struggle it would be downright tragic if it were to happen again now that we're essentially on the same side o We've got to work together to deprive both these groups of ammunition -· --- - 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