MARSHALL ISLANDS FILE TRACKING DOCUMENT Record Number File Name TITLE ' 1cr1-1D lJ L 13 JY C lj- 200 DocumentNumber ID DATE Z-ho 51 Previous Locatirn OM AUTHOR Aj fl1 Addditional Information 0C 49 r 1 _ ·- V 1 r 1111 Ltr14 _ ' an -3c1 f s olLIA J I NII t FS t 4 e a 0 ---#-- '#_-_-___c- P-- R 1 -0_ _ _IS'i_·_C _tt S _T J_ --'------OrJ fi4 lLixlt k l'J i C TIOn·S i Unclassified OrMlbox - - - CyMlbox _ _ __ Kijiner Requests Answered 1 7 8 9 10 5 6 M ' fl U Wor1d-Wide Contamination JECT 1 F LIBBY During the RAND SiTllSliI NJ i conferences of June 1953 and January 1954 __ Jl --I discussed with you the possibility that 75 to 85% of the total residual activity or surface burst weapo o s would be deposited im rnediatel downwind within 200 to 300 miles downwind 6 to 18 hours after bomb detonation The events of 1 March 1954 CASTLE-BRlVO Shot have proved the existence of large concentrations of residual activity downwind For this reason I have taken the trouble of' analyzing in detail the percentage downwind fallout from CASTLE-BRAVO ghot in the first 24 hours See inclosed ARDC report C4-23676 for details 2 I believe that this tact has a distinct bearing on_ the validity of SUNSHINE assumptions of the Stronti1111 90 burden imposed by explosions ot nuclear weapons In Table I I have listed all or the known explosio o s or atollic weapons to date Then I have assuaed that tor tower shots 15 to 50KT f'ro11 300 rt towers 10 te 'JO' ef the residual activit is scavenged eut ia several hours b7 the soil and hence is not available for world wide distribution Similarly I have assumed that f'or 25KT exploded f'rom a 100 n tower 50% of activity is -scaveaged out by the soil F'or surface ·shots it is assuaed that 80% is soil-scavenged out and theretore unavailable tor world wide c o n Proot ot these assWllptions are in the inclosed ARDC Report - Ln uie v bl cago Dat y expen aei °'a repor e 1 oy y·ou 1D me c1anua17 1954 co erence you showed that new born babies 1n the Chica o area have about 1 6 SUNSHINE U nii ot Sr90 or about 1 6tXXJ ot tolerance On the basi - · of' the original SUNSHINE estimate or ab even distribution of 25 000 Jt'l or debris to bring the world population up to tolerance 4JilT would give the N Chicago babies the observed deposition• Since-these experiments were con----- --- --_s 1 1 i in 1953 it is ass1111ed that Joe 4 or TN Joe Ij detonated in August - J - • • -- • - - • • • • • - - • 9 • N 3 · ··-• ·· · g1 u 8 If g 0 ___ J 11 J_ WI value b- _ Jis used it is still less than t he JJK 'ound by your i J p en - he c b s I s uld_be er 11 -t u t 14 by 0 d 1 t e r t'llf win · t _T bi rT ·- -·Even r i 8 i e • d i Jj t el end or 7- J eorus ma ' ind If this is true then we only had _· ·_ or even as --- available tor the Chicago babies And ye eir uptake l l J 53 ODJ 3' o or tne a-vauaDJ e atao•pherl C r aphep I 1 asL· -- ii w Sj 1fr by SUNSHINE estimates The conclusion is inevi ble that the SUNestiJDates are not conservative as popularly belie ved in many- quarters 1 _j the contrary SUNSHINE underestimated the Sr90 hazard Many people have · r ed that the SUNSHINE overestimates the Sr90 uptake by £actors of 10 ' Ci · eve a 30 The statement is also JDade that the Chicago baby uptake o_f'_ §r was a ot through the plaat-animal-ma a cycle but that the fission pro iuqts were picked up by the ao1mal cow rro11· fallout that ex S I directly f J 5nally c ➔ s- then» assed c n to the m o t h r 0£ t'ARTME 1s1 REVIEW-DATE r Of £ ' jfRG c41 s r ll '1 -l Z Jc 11 lflRM JljM10 1c1 uf t •Iiuar tSH C 6rJi • c4 ·630 ---l 7 • MrHORIT OC D M · 'A A · f 0 - l P- lfl -'I IIU '9 flMrfUtlJ tl J' I' · · · u i• i C lt t O IOt ul S lll D li ic '- 'lE' ih '-DATE COOXOINI TE WITH ·- i qrc j tJJTHOR '9 · j ASSIHC ATl0 1 CANCHtfiJ • - - 1f 1r1_ac C ASSIFIEO IIJfO BRAC £TlD i- 1- ·· - OTHfR SPfC fY ' ' IS ' __ - 1 6 J - --· --____-- - - • -- _ - - _ 1 f r' 2 k d P- l' i f · - A J ✓- Memo U World-Wide Contamination the Chicago babies It seems to me that regardless of the mode 0£ introduction of Sr90 into the human biological cycle 7 that fa et t h at the Chicago babies picked up l Y BINE unit f r om A available debris which may have been as low as - r even1 _ _ · 1 is qui ta significant It would be interesting U repea't the Chicago ba' '6y e xperimEtnt in 1955 If' the babies show an uptake of l 2 SUNSHINE unit or more in 1955 the original SUNSHINE estimate ot 25 000MT allowable may have to be lowered to 10 000 or 15 000MT Your attention is particu1arly invited to Figure ll ot the inclosed report 1 18M'f • 4 This document clas if'ied Rff 2Jb and 56 JliR 205-l I _11_ _ ' fht - N M LULEJ'IAH 1 Incl Table I - - Lt Colonel USAF Atomic Operations D Lvision -· ' ' '__ $ c_ t ' t - I- - 2 ----·---- --- - --- in accordanc e with paragraphs ·- - - ' --- ---------------- ·-- ·- -- TABLE I - ------ ---······- - TOTAL YIELD l IN KT T EST OPERATION Trim ty DATE Hiroshima Nagasaki Crossroads Aug Aug May Ranger Greenhouse Buster Joe 2 afid· 3 I• 1tt Jf1k Kin 45 i 45 l Jul 46 Sandstone Joe I Jugle Tua bl er Saapper 1 Fission Jul 45 j 1 II I 48 1 Sept 491 Jan May Nov Bov Hov 51 51 I 24 14 ------·- ·-----------YIELD YIELD AVAIL ABLE FOR AV AU ABLE FOR CHI- WOBLD CONTAMINATION ViIDE 10F CONTilINATION u s 12 12 15 50 20 40 400 40 40 300 150 72 20 72 72 51 II 51 2 Apr 52 lfay 52 55 55 57 45 10 l 2 1 7 105 20 51 ATION il 22 • CAGO ARFA CONTAMIN- 7 14 22 40 YIELD AVAIL ABLE FOR 25 10 0 5 ° s2J l flED @itd i m TOTAL THlUJ 1952 -- 1 Joe 4 CASTLE Bravo Romeo Koon Union Yankee Hectar GRUID TOTALS UP TO JUNE l 954 _ _ _ - nc CI Lil ·· _ · - Lt-· _· - nr - - 11 J UCLCICII-- - - t - _ - - - - -- --·- · --- -· --- · t- 3 1 - - - -