E2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFTED PAGE 01 MOSCOW ACTION INR OO 06630 01 0F 03 SMEC-00 EBIE-OO MCO-01 NSaE-00 ACB-00 DS-00 ErrR-ol LAB-01 t-00 M-00 Ac-01 DCP-01 NRRC-oo oPrc-ol PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 sP-00 TRSE-oo usrE-oo sA-01 DSCC-oo PRM-01 DRL-02 c-00 swcr-oo sNIS-00 FDIC-01 INL-01 DODE-OO TITED-OO vc-01 MOIf -04 NSCB-00 MOF-03 oMB-01 P-00 NISC-00 PMB-OO NFAT-OO sAs-00 o22w --410 F3 P 2006582 AR oo F B6 2007L82 rNFO rOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CrAE-oo DOEE-oo SRPP-oo H-01 TEDE-oo RELEASED IN PART PTQ3591 2OO724Z 38 AI EMBASSY OSCOI TO SECSTATE WAS TDC PRIORITY 9527 INFO MOSCOW POLITICAI COTLBCTIVE CIS COLLECTIVE rrNcIAs sBcTIoN 01 0F 03 MOSCOW 006630 SENSITIVE STATE FOR INR R RUC EUR NIS PO E O 12958 tl A TAGS PGOV RS UNCI ASSIFIED PAGE 02 SUB IECT MOSCOIT POLLSTERS ON 06630 01 0F 03 2007t82 PUIIN'S POPULARITY ELECTION SENSITI IE BUT UNCI ASSIFIED -- PI EASB TREAT ACCORDINGLY S 'M IARY 1 SBU ON I'iARCH 10 THE DCM HOSTED A LUNCH WITH PRO IINENT RUSSIA I POLLSTBRS TO DISCUSS THE NATURE OF THE RUSSIA I EI ECTORATE TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE MARCH 26 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AI L AGREED THAT PUTIN WOUI D LIKELY WIN IN THE FIRST ROUND AT D THAT VO IER TURNOIIT WOUI D NOT BE SO LOII AS TO NVALIDATE THB ELECTION DTSCUSSION OF THE RE ASONS FOR PUTIN'S POPT'I ARITY CENTERED ON P ITIN'S EIIERGETIC DEMEA IOR AIID FORCEFUL RBAqIION TO THE PROVOCATIONS IN D AGESTAI I A ID THE UNITED STATES DEPARTIUENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTIIORITY FRANKII PEREZ DATE CASE ID 05 SEP 2007 200 02380 UNCLASSIFIED scT-00 LTNCLASSIFIED TERRORIST BOMBINGS WHILE VOTBRS SEBM LESS CONCERNED wrTH THE QTESTION OF WHO pUtIN rS THEY SEEM CONTSNT IN THE KNOWI EDGE THAT RUSSIA WILI H AVE A PRESIDENT WHO WILL BE ENGAGED END ST'M ''ARY voTERS KNOW P IIIN WILL WIN BUT WILL THEY VOTE 2 SBU ON MARCH 10 THE DCM HOSTED A LUNCHEON DISCUSSION WITH RUSSIAN POLLSTERS TO DISCT'SS ISST'ES B6 UNCI ASSIFIED PAGE 03 MOSCOW 06630 01 0F 03 2007LAZ REST'LTS TNDICATE TI ADIMIR PUTIN WILL WIN TI E I 'ARCH 26 ELEqIION PROBABTY ON THE FIRST aALtOT DEpEltDINc ON HOW POLTTNG QI'ESTIONS ARE PHRASED AND WHETHER RESULTS ARE EROM ONtY LIKELY VOTERS OR ALt RESPOIIDENTS POLLS PREDICT PTITIN WILL RECEIVE BET9IEEN 46 AIID 60 PERCENT OF THE VOTE ZYUGAI OV BET9itsEN 18-20 PERCENT Al ilD YA ILINSKIY 4-8 PERCENT DESCRIBING HOIV STRONG PUTIN'S SUPPORT lED POLLS SHOWING THAT PUTIN IS IS DRAWING SUPPORT FR OM THE CONSTITUENCIES OF ALL PARTTES IN TI E EI ECTION POLLS SHO T 22 PE RCENT OF THOSB WIIO VOTED FOR THE COMMUNTST PARTY IN THE DI'I A EI ECTIONS WILL VOTE FOR PUTIN A ID 66 OVR VOTERS SY' PATHIZE WITH CAI DIDATE PUTIN ALSO NOSED THAT P IIIN' S SUPPORT IS CONSISTENTLY HIGH AI ONG AI L DEMOGRAPHIC GROT'PS WITH THE ONLY VART ETION BE VOTERS WHO ST'PPORT COMMT'NIST C3 IDIDATES I HO PREVIOUSLY EXPRESSBD DOUBT THAT PUTIN WOI'LD WIN IN THE FIRST ROU D -- SAID THAT IT WAS ''TOO BAD'' THAT THERE WOULD LTKELY BE ONLY ONE ROUND BECAUSE IT WOI'LD DEVALUE TIIE EI ECTORAI PROCESS DUI'TA 4 SBU SINCE MOST RUSSIA IS BELIEVE THAT PTITIN WILL wIN MORE TttAt 70 PERCENT rN MOST POLLS THE RP AI QUBSTION ON MOST MINDS GI IEN HIS STRONG POPUI ARITY UNCI ASSIFIBD PAGE 04 MOSCOW 06630 01 0F 03 2007L8z UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED RATING AltD THE SENSE OF INSVITABILITY IS T HETHER ENOUGII VOTERS WILL SHOW UP TO GTVE HIM A FIRST ROT'ND VICTORY AIYTONG THE POLLSTBRS THERE WAs GENERAL AGREET'GNT THAT 60 OR MORE PERCENT OF THE POPUI ATION THB ELECTION SATD HIS ORGA IT PERCENT OF RUSSIANS ARE GOING TO VOTE NOTED THAT SOME POLTS SHOW AS HIGH AS 85 PERCENT PROSPBqTI ZE luRNouT s sBu OBSERVED TI AT FOCUS PS AllD POLTS FOCUSING ON m y pEOpLE VOTE 56 PERCENT GA ZE A REASON THEy vrll t VOTE SOCrAt OBLTGATION ETC AS IS THE NORM IN RUSSTA A HIGHER PERCENTAGE IS E PECTED TO VOTE TN THE PRESIDENTIAI ELESTION THA I IN I AST DECEMBER'S D 'I IA BLECTION elt ONG YOUNG PEOPLB HOWEi ZER D THERE WILL TIKELY BE A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THOSE PROTESTING THE CHOICE OF CE DIDATES BY NOT VOTI IG AT AI t AI t AGREED THAT THERE WAS A DIFI'ERENCE IN THE MOTIVATION OF VOTERS BETWtsEN TI E 1996 PRESIDENTLAI EI ECTION A ID THE 2OOO ELECIION IN 1995 THERE WAS NO Sn pATHy FOR A ry CAIIDIDATB ESSENTLAITY PEOPLE VOTED AGAINST ZYUGANOV OR AGAINST y tTSrN rN 2000 VOTERS eRE GOIlrc TO VOTE FOR A CA TDIDATE -- THBRE IS SOME ENTHUSIASM FOR PUTIN GROT Q - lrltY PUTIN A - CHECHNYA UNCI ASSIFIED PAGE 05 MOSCOW 06630 01 0F 03 2007L8z I'NCI ASSTFIED Prp3s92 T'NCI ASSII'IED PAGE 01 MOSCOW 06630 02 0F 03 2007t82 ACTION IIIR-OO INFO NP OO AID-OO SRPP-OO DS-OO H-01 TEDE-0O LAB-01 M-00 AC-o1 DCp-01 oPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 sP-00 sRsE-oo usrB-oo DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRt-02 LOG-00 DOBE-OO swcl-00 2 __ CTAE-OO SMEC OO INI -01 DODE-OO NRRC-OO NSAE-oo NSCB-oo PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 oMB-01 BT'R-01 EBIE-OO LITED OO vc-01 L-00 MCO-01 MoI'Ivt-O4 MOF-03 sA-01 G-OO scT-00 sNrs-oo Nrsc-oo PMB-OO NFAT-OO sAS-00 FDIC-o1 ____410 FA 2oo724z 38 LINCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED P 2q06582 l4lAR 00 I1 AIr EMBASSY MOSCO I TO SECSTATE WASIIDC PRIORITY 952A INFO MOSCOW POLITICAI COLLECTI E CIS COLLECTI ZE ttNcr As sBcTIoN 02 0F 03 Moscow 006630 SENSITIVE STATE FOR rNR R RUC ErrR NrS PD E o L2958 N A TAGS PGOV RS T'NCIASSIFIED PAGE 02 SUBiIECT MOSCOW POLLSSER S ON 06630 02 0F 03 2007L82 PtIIrN'S POPULARITY ELBCTION 6 SBU MUCH OF THE LITNCHTIME DISCUSSION FOCTJSED ON THE NATURE OF THE ELECTORATE AI D PUTIN'S POPUI ARITY ARGUED THAT PUTIN' S POPTII ARITY WAS EXPIAINED ENTTRELY BY CHECHNYA HE SAID PUTIN 7AS THE RIG 3 MAII AT THE RIGHT TIME EXPLATNTNG TIIAT CIRCUMSTAI CES PIIT HIM IN A POSITION I HERE HE COT'LD DO THINGS TIIAT WOULD CRAATE A SSRONG IIIAGE oF HIM As A PERSON T HO WOULD ACT NOTED THAT FOR FI ZE I BEKS AFTER HIS APPOINTIIENT AS PRIME MINISTER PUTIN IT AD A JOB APPROVAI RATING OF AROI'ND TWO PERCENT IT WASIiI'T T'NIIL THE BOMBINGS IN MOSCOW AIID OTHER CITIES TIIAT PUTrN IIAD THB OPPORTUNITY TO SHO9I LF ADERSHIP NOTE PUTIN'S 'OB APPROVJII RATING IS CURRENTLY AROT'I D 74 PERCENT END NOTE 7 SBU ALTIIOUGII PUTIN'S POPUI ARITY SEEMED TO CATCH FIRE WITH HIS TOUGI COIIDUCT OF THE CHECHNYA CAMPAIGN NONE OF THESE POLTSTERS BETIEVED I IS RATINC WOULD SUFEER NOTICEABLY BEFORE IIIARCH 26 IF THE CHECHNYA OPBR ATIONS STARTED TO GO BADTY FOR RUSSTA THEY NOTED THAT WHITA SUPPORT FOR THE MITITARY OPERATION IN CHECHNYA WAS HIGH 60 OR MORE PERCENT IN MOST POLTS AIMOST THE SA IE PERCENTAGE BBLIE ZE TI1AT A PARTISAI WAR AND TERRORIST ACTS WILL cONTINttE COMMENT ACCORDING TO ONE POLL r ESS TItAlf 20 PERCENT OF RUSSIANS BELIEVE TIIE CHECHEN OPERATION WILL END IN A QUICK AIID COMPLETE VICTORY BY FEDER AI FORCES A D HALF DO NOT TI INK IT WILL END SOON RUSSTANS SIMPLY AY SKPECT THAT SUCH AN OPERATION WILL ITA TE IIIGI COSTS A ID THBREFORE TTIE T'NCI ASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 MOSCOW 06630 02 0p 03 2007L8z CONTINUATION OF THE CONI'tICT dAY NOT TT'RN IMMEDIATELY INTO DECREASED SUPPORT FOR THE OPERJATION OR FOR PTITIN END COMMENT 8 SBU AGREED TIIAT CHBCHNYA CONTRIBUTED TO PUTIN'S RATINGS B If ARGT'ED THAT SO WOUI D AI Y ACTION OR EVSNT TTTAT WOIII D HAVE SHOTIN PUTIN TO BE A I BADER AI L GENER ALLY AGRESD THAT IT WAS THE CIRCT'MSTA ICES -- THE AACT THAT PUTIN WAS TN A POSITION WHERE H8 IIAD OPPORTUNITTES TO ACT LTKE A LEADBR -- THAT ADE PUTIN THE RICHT A I AS OPPOSED TO A IYONE ELSE STMII ARLY THEY AGREED TTIAT THE VITALITY OF THE ACTING PRESIDENT WAS THE MOST IMPORTAIIT RF ASON FOR HIS POSITT E rL AcE SEETNG P xIIN ON TET EVISION SPF AI ING DAILY TAI I ING TOUGH ABOIIT I IIAT THE ADMINISTRATION lfoulD Do SUPPoRTING A STRONG ARM IIIAGE OF PUTIN AS SOMEONE ON GA IE RUSSLAI S A I PIN SHEIR WHOM THEY COT'LD HOPES e sBu CREDITED THB PROFESSIONATISM OF TI E PUBLIC REIATIONS EXPERTS OF PTITIN'S CAMPAIGN STAFF WITH CREATING EN IMAGE FOR P IrIN THEY HAVE SHOI N HIM AS A STRONG L ADER I HICH IS IIHAT RUSSIAI S WANT POLLS SHOW 65 PERCENT WAI T A STRONG PERSONALITY OF TTIE COI'NTRY ATL POLLSTERS AGREED WITH THB CON IENTIONAI WISDOM THAT VOTERS REAITY KNOW IBRY LITTLE ABOIII PUTIN BUT THEY INTERPRETED TITIS AS SIGNIFYTNG THAT '' II O PUTI I IS IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT QT'BSTION TO VOTERS RATHER THE POLTSTERS BELIEVE THAT THE VOTERS SEE IN HIM THEIR OWN HOPES A ID PREEBRENCES AS col'f ENfED E TJRTHER RUSSIAI S DO NOT WA T TO IOOK UNCI ASSIFIED I PAGE 04 MOSCOW 06630 02 0F 03 2007L82 BACK THEY WAIIT TO LOOK FORWARD -- THEY gtAllT TO SEE rN PUTIN HOPE FOR THS I'UrURE A I' IITURE GUIDED By A SI ONG IIA ID A ID IIHAT ABOIIT THE COMMUNISTS 10 sBU TrE ASKED IIIHETHER COMMUNTST VOTtsRS WILL sntpl y DrE oIII oR AITERNATMLY AS SOME At ArySTS HAVE SUGGESSED THAT AS RUSSTANS AGE AND GO ON PENSTONS THEY WILL TURN TO I EFTIST PARTIES THOSE COMMENTING AGREED TIIAT ECONOMIC INSECT'RITY WOTII D DRI ZE VOTERS TO IARD IaFTIST PARTIBS BUT NOT NECESSARTLY THE COMMUNTST UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PARrY ARGUED THAT AS SOON AS PEOPLB REACH PENSION AGE 55 WOMEN 60 MEN AI ID SEBt THE EFFECTS OF A sltAljt INcoME THEY WILL BEGIN TO WORRY ABOUT THEIR E'IUTURES EVEN THOUGH TN MOST CASES THEY IIILL RELY ON MORE TlIAI l THEIR PSNSIONS FOR RETIREMENT rNcOME 11 SBU ERGUED THAT PEOPLE WII L BEGIN TO BECOME CONCERNED EARLISR AS THE MIDDLE CLASS REjACH 35 Y ARS OR LL SO AllD BEGTN TO THEIR CHII DREN' S FUTURE OBSERVED THAT ECONOMTC ISST'ES ARE IERY voTERS AllD THAT THB CURRENT LOW TNFT ATTON AFrtsR lTtE ECONOMTC CRISIS HAS HELPED PtIIIN BUT THAT SUCH POPUI ARITY WOUI D BE HT'RT TF PRICES GO UP L2 IN DISCTJSSING PUTIN'S SBU ACTTONS AS ACTING UNCI ASSIFIED PAGE 05 MOSCOW 06630 02 0F 03 2007L82 I'NCIASSTFIED ITNCLASSIFTED PAGE 01 MOSCOIT ACTION r R-00 06530 03 0F 03 PTQ3593 2007L82 INFO IOG OO NP-OO AID-OO CIAE-OO SMEC-00 DOBB-oo SRPP-oo DS-00 8UR-01 EBIE-OO H-01 TEDE-OO I AB-01 L-OO MCO-01 M-00 Ac-01 DCP-01 NRRC-oo NSAE-OO oPIC-ol PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-O0 sP-00 rRsE-oo usrE-oo sA-o1 sNrs-00 DSCC-oo PRM-01 DRL-02 c-00 FDIC-01 swcr-oo DODE-OO vc-01 MOFM-04 NSCE-00 MOF-03 oMB-01 P-00 NISC-00 PMB-OO NFAT-OO sAs-00 o22w P 2006582 lrAR OO F INL-01 UTED-OO --41080s 2OO724Z 38 AIIIBMBASSY lqlOSCO I TO SBCSTASE WASTIDC PRIORITY 9529 INFO MOSCOW POLITIC AI COLLECTI IE CIS COLLECTIVE uNcras sEcTIoN 03 0F 03 Moscow 005630 SENSITI ZE STATE FOR INR R RUC EUR NIS PD E o 12958 H A I INCLASSIFIED scT-00 LINCLASSIFIED TAGS PGO V RS UNCI ASSIFIBD PAGE 02 SUB ECT MOSCOW 06630 03 0F 03 2007L82 POLLSTERS ON PTJITN'S POPULARITY ELECTION PRESIDENT ARGUED THAT PUTIN ITAD NOT TATCEN ANy SrEpS I 8 HAD NOT ADOPTED Ally CONCRBTE POLTCTES AI D THAT A I ANTI-CORRUPTION CAI PATGN WOUI D BE THB MOST BENEFICTAT STEP HB COI'I D TAICE DISAGREED ARGUING THAT PUTIN DID NOT HA ZE THE POWER TO TAIG A IY ACTIONS NOIT THAT PUTIN'S EFFORTS TO GAIN MORE CONTROL O IER THB RUSSI A I EEDERATTON'S SUBi'ECTS SHO IBD HE WANIIED TO STRENGTHEN CENTRJilL coNtRoL HolfEvER THOSE pUrIN MIGHT APPOINT OR PROMOSE FOR POSITIONS NOT ONLY NEEDBD pLItIN BUT PIITIN NEEDED THEM NOTE POLLING ABOUT THE CANDIDATE'S PI ATFORMS SHOI S THAT THE MA 'ORITY OF VOTERS BELIEVE THAT THE OST IMPORTNIT PARTS OF PUTIN'S ''PROGRAI U ARE ''VIqTORY IN CHECHNYA'' AIiID 'STRENGTHENING THE STATE '' FOM POLLS IN EEBRUARY SHOW THAT I HILE 49 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS DO NOT KNO I HOW THE ECONOt fg woulD DEVELOP ITNDBR ptrtrN 53 pE RcB flr THINK HE WrLL MA TAGE THE BCONO 6'T SUCCESSTIU LY EI D NOIE COMMENT SBU POLLS SEEM TO IIIDICATE THAT VOTERS SEE IN PUTIN A NEIiT PRESIDENT T HO AT LEAST APPE ARS TO TIA IE THE 1 ENERGY TO DEAL WrTH THEIR PROBLEMS I'NLIKE Y LTSIN WHO WAs CONSIDERED TOO IIL AND T eN DURING MTJCH OF HIS SECOND TERM VOTERS SEEM TO TTAVE NO MORE SPECIFIC HOPES FOR A PIXTIN ADMINISTR ATION TT1AII TO HAVE A PRESIDENT VIHO TS ENGAGED A TD WHO WAI TS TO IAICE RUSSTA UNCI ASSTFIED PAGE 03 MOSCOW 06630 03 0F 03 2007t82 AGAIN THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH POLLING DATA STRONG AIIALYSIS TIIAT ATTRTBUTE P ITIN'S POPUI ARITY TO HIS STRONG IIAGE AS EVIDENCED BY THE CHECIINYA OPER ATION A ID COLLINS UNCI ASSIFIED END OF DOCUI'GNT TINCLASSIFIED