4 R 300l55Z MAY 98 FMDIA WASHINGTON DC R292 4 ZMAY98 b 2 FM - efr SERIAL U 1IR b 2 COUNTRY U COLOMBIA GO SUBJ ITRin'DEAD MAN WALKING - RETIREMENT b 2 EXPECTED SOON FOR CONTROVERSIAL GENERAL U DOI U 980416 980519-980520 b 1 ¶JM MARY 4 FOLLOWING REVOCATION OF HIS U S TOURIST VISA AND THE DEACTIVATION OF THE ARMY'S INTELLIGENCE BRIGADE MANY OFFICERS EXPECT MAJOR GENERAL IVAN RAMIREZ TO BE RETIRED SOON AFTER A NEW PRESIDENT ASSUMES OFFICE IN EARLY AUGUST RAMIREZ IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A HEAVY LIABILITY FOR BOTH MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OFFICIALS TEXT 1 CONVERSATIONS AMONG MID- AND SENIOR LEVEL INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS FROM THE COLOMBIAN ARMY'S COLAR INTELLIGENCE DIRECTORATE DINTE OR E-2 INDICATE THAT DESPITE PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS OF SUPPORT THE COLAR'S INSPECTOR GENERAL MAJOR GENERAL IVAN RAMIREZ QUINTERO IS EXPECTED TO BE RETIRED FROM ACTIVE DUTY SOON AFTER A NEW PRESiDENT ASSUMES OFFICE iN EARLY AUGUST 1998 THE ALMOST SIMULTANEOUS PUBLICANNOUNCEMENTS OF TEE REVOCATION OF HIS U S TOURIST VISA AND DEACTIVATION OF THE COLAR'S 20TH INTELLIGENCE BRIGADE INDICATE THAT RAMIREZ HAS BECOME A HOT POTATO WHO IS RAPIDLY LOSING HIS INFLUENCE 2 - THE 20 MAY PUBLIC SHOW OF SUPPORT FOR MG RAMIREZ BY THE MILITARY'S ACTIVE DUTY LEADERSHIP DOES NOT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE TRUE FEELINGS MOST COLAR OFFICERS I-IAVE TOWARD HIM MANY OFFiCERS COMMENT THAT THE SHOW OF SUPPORT WAS DONE MORE FOR BASiC INSTITUTIONAL SOLIDARITY REASONS THAN FOR ANY DEEP CAMARADERIE FELT TOWARD RAMIREZ MORE TIIAN A FEW OFFICERS ARE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE RUMORS OF RAMIREZ'S ALLEGED LINKS ro PARAMILITARIES AND NARCOTRAFFICKERS DESPITE THE PUBLIC SHOW OF SOLIDARITY BY SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIALS MOST COLAR OFFICERS ARE SMART ENOUGH TO SEE THE IIAND WRITING ON THE WALL AND ARE DOING WHATEVER IS NECESSARY TO DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM RAMIIREZ MG RAM IREZ IS WIDELY PERCEIVED BY OTHER COLAR OFFiCERS TO BE DAMAGED GOODS AND THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT GUILT BY ASSOCIATION 3 - THE TWO RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS CONTINUED A SERIES OP EVENTS WHICH HAVE SEVERELY UNDERMINED RAMIREZ'S ONCE POWPRFUL STATURE WITHIN THE COLAR LONG VIEWED AS THE GODFATHER OF COLAR INTELLIGENCE HIS INFLUENCE WITHIN TEE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY WAS SERIOUSLY UNDERCUT IN LATE 1097 BY THE FORCED OUSTER OF SEVERAL OF HIS CLOSEST -9 t INTELLIGENCE OFFICER ALLIES TOPPING THE LIST OF FORCIBLY RETIRED INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS ARE TWO FORMER 20TH BRIGADE COMMANDERS COLONEL BERNARDO RUIZ SIINA AND LIEUTENANT COLONEL JOSE GUILLERMO RUBIO VARGAS ANOTHER RISING INTELLIGENCE OFFICER LIEUTENANT COLONEL CAN4lLO PULECIO TOVAR A FORMER 20TH BRIGADE EXECUTIVE OFFICER ONCE SLATED TO BECOME THE NEW E-2 WAS ALSO FORCED INTO UNEXPECTED RETIREMENT 4 -E -AS THE COLAR INSPECTOR GENERAL MG RAMIREZ IS OFTEN OUT VISITING UNITS IN THE FIELD AWAY FROM COLAR IIEADQUARTERs IN BOGOTA THIS HAS PREVENTED HIM FROM RECONSOLiDATING HIS POWER BASE AMONG A NEW BATCH OF 1N1ELLIGENCE OFFICERS--PRIMARILY LIEUTENANT COLONELS WHO WERE PROMOTED LAST DECEMBER HE STh'IPLY DOES NOT HAVE THE 11MB NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH THE TASK FURTHERMORE BOTH THE CURRENT E-2 AND THE COMMANDER OF THE NOW-DEFUNCT 20TH BRIGADE ARE NON-INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS THE E-2 COLONEL MARIO MONTOYA URIBE AND THE FORMER 20TH BRiGADE COMMANDER COLONEL PAUCELINO LATORRE GAMBOA ARE BOTH CAVALRY OFFICERS NEITHER IS BELIEVED TO OWE ANY ALLEGIANCE TO RAMIREZ--UNLIKE MOST INTELLIGENCE BRANCH oFFICERS RAMIREZ IS BELIEVED TO HAVE LI'ITLE INFLUENCE OVER EITHER OFFICER HE IS BELIEVED TO HAVE ALMOST NO INFLUENCE OVER COL MONTOYA BECAUSE OF THE E-2'S CLOSE WORKING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE COLAR COMMANDER GEN MARIO HUGO GALAN RODRIGUEZ SOME OFFICERS COMMENT THAT GIVEN HIS SUDDEN CHANGE IN CIRCUMSTANCES RAMIREZ PROBABLY FEELS LONELY AND OUT IN THE COLD ' b 1 INSTR U___________________________ PREP U b 2 ACQ U DISSEM U ___________________ WARNING U REPORT CLASSIFIED £ C P E T DRY FROM DI-IS SCG OCTOBER 1997