#' 1 I t lv1 _ Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 JS£ @ ft Iii fi' ' I I INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM ESTIMATE OF 1953 GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE SOVIET BLOC CIA RR IM-395 13 September 1954 WARNING THIS MATERIAL CONI'AINS INFORMATION AFFECTING TEE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED sr ATES WITHlli THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS TITLE 18 use SECB 793 AND 794 THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WID CH IN PJifY MANNER TO AN UNAUI1HORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports SFGRillf I ' Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 l Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T FOREWORD A study of grain acreage yields and production is most essential to an appraisal of the Soviet Bloc's capability to support its population under conditions of peace or war Although shifts in the grain production pattern within the Bloc from year to year are not of themselves valid positive indicators of intentions it is possible that the Bloc countries would not launch a major military campaign during a protracted drought or with an empty granary This memorandum deals with the production of grain in the Soviet Bloc as a whole and in each of its major components -- the USSR the European Satellites and Communist China It primarily highlights the current situation regarding acreage yields and production of breaa grains wheat and rye coarse grains barley oats and corn rice and several minor grains in 1953 and gives comparisons with pre-World War II and recent postwar years This memorandum does not analyze the relation of grain production to the economy of each country concerned but attention is drawn to certain of these relationships particularly population numbers in their broadest sense An analysis of the utilization of the production of each grain seed feed industrial use human consumption trade reserves and waste is being made in a separate report on the food balance of each Bloc country Although the emphasis of this memorandum is on production in 1953 some consideration has been given to long-term trends and the plans of the Bloc countries to increase grain production Crop production plans for Corrnnunist China are vague and do not seem to have the same degree of importance as they have in the USSR and the European Satellites Therefore instead of a section on Plans for China there is presented a section on Problems of Supply and Distribution The numerical data contained in this memorandum do not represent measured or weighed quantities -- they are at best estimates and sometimes approximations The estimated range of error in most cases is ± 5 percent • - iii - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T '· CONTENTS Summary I II A 1953 Grain Production B Significance • • • • • • • • The USSR A 1953 Grain Production •• The Soviet Bloc • l 2 J V C • Bread Grains Coarse Grains • • • • • • • • • Rice and Other Grains • • • • B Plans • • • • • • • c Significance ••• The European Satellites • A 1953 Grain Production •• 1 Bread Grains • • • • 2 Coarse Grains • • • • B Plans • • • • • c Significance Comrmmist China •• 3 III • A B c 1953 Grain Production • ••• Problems of Supply and Distribution •• Significance • • • • • • • • • • • • 0 • • • • ti • ti ••• •••• - V - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 • • 1 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 17 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E- r Appendixes Appendix A E tatistical Tables • 19 Appendix B Methodology 37 Appendix C fources and Evaluation of Bourc s 43 Tables Soviet Blee Estimated Acreage Yie ld d Production of Grain Prewar and 1950-53 • • • • I° 20 Soviet Bloc Per Capita Production of Gain Prewar and 1950-53 • • • • • • • • • 21 3 USSR Estimated Acreage Yield and Pro uction of Gra ln Prewar ani 1950-53 • • • • • • • • • • • • 22 4 USSR Estimated Acreage Yield and Pro uction of Gra in Selected Prewar Periods • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 23 5 USSR 1 2 Per Capita Production of Grain P ewar and 1950-53 · • • • • • • • · • 6 European Sltellites Estimated Acreage Yield and Produ tion of Grain 1935-39 Averag 1952 and Prelininary 1953 • • • • • • • • • • • 7 Albania of Grain 24 • • • stimated Acreage Yield and reduction 1935-39 Average 1952 and Pr liminary 1953 • 25 26 8 Bulgaria Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 Prelim nary 1953 and 1957 lan • • - vi S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 27 - ' Approved For Release 1999 09 21 ClA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Czechoslovakia Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 Preliminary 1953 and 1953 Plan 28 East Germany Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain l935-39 Average l952 Preliminary 1953 and 1955 Plan 29 Hunga cy Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain l935-39 Average 1952 Preliminary 1953 and 1956 Plan • 30 Poland Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 Preliminary 1953 and 1955 Plan • 31 Rumania Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 Preliminary 1953 and 1955 Plan 32 European Satellites Per Capita Production of Grain Prewar 1952 and 1953 • 33 Communist China Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain Prewar and 1950-53 34 Communist China Per Capita Production of Grain Prewar and 1950-53 35 Following Page Western USSR Spring Wheat Acreage - vii - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 10 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 CIA RR IM-395 ORR Project 21 142 S-E-C-R-E-T ESTIMATE OF 1953 GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE sovmr BLOC Sunnnary Considering the Soviet Bloc as a whole the 1953 total grain production estimated at 225 million metric tons was l ' million tons below production in 1952 and 24 million tons nearly 10 percent less than the production immediately before World War II The decline in production is more serious than the absolute figures indicate when they are considered in relation to the over-all increases in population that have taken place The European Satellites considered as a unit area had the largest decline in absolute tonnage more than 11 million tons and production per capita fell from 486 to 376 kilograms or 23 percent Per capita production in the USSR decreased 18 percent and in Conrrnunist China 4 percent For the Bloc as a whole bread grain production was only 5 percent below prewar production but coarse grain production was 19 percent lower than prewar production Per capita production of all grain fell from 325 to 303 kilograms in 1952 and to 286 kilograms in 1953 The USSR and Communist China have established high goals for grain production in their respective long-range economic plans but little has been accomplished in actually attaining them Grain production goals in Eastern Europe have been at about prewar levels and have generally not been achieved The USSR after admitting failure to achieve its agricultural goals has launched a program to extend grain production to new lands to idle land in presently cultivated areas and to lands The estimates and conclusions contained in this intelligence memorandum represent the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of 1 July 1954 The grain crops considered in·this memorandum are wheat rye oats 1 arley corn rice and the miscellaneous minor grains millet kaoliang buckwheat spelt and in the USSR pulses -lHHEThroughout this memorandum tonnages are given in metrlc tons S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T that have not proved to be well adapted to the production of perennial g rasse s Judging from past experien e in extending grain production into submarginal areas the Smriet program of seeding grain crops on virgin lands holds little Jlromife of increasing production by 18 million to 20 million tons ELS pl nned An appraisal of all factors including climate which s of paramount importance indicates that increase in production is more I ikely to be within the order of 6 er 7 million tons with a possi ility of reaching 9 million tons if clinatic conditions are unus lly favorable Some success can be expected from the much morei lim ted program to expand the production of grain on idle land and Rand formerly used to a considerable extent for grass crops but this program will have little effect on the total grain procluctir1 n situation in the USSR The USSR appears to be in serious difficulty with respect to the production of grain -- not only for food but also for nonfood use The new program is a desperate move which may lwith favorable weather stave off the time when the country will r Lo lo hger be self sufficient in grain production Unfavorable weather may ause crop pro iuction to fall short of the country's requirements intthe near future In that event imports -- largely from Bloc count ies -- will bi necessary to ma Lntain the present levels of consumption i I The situation in the European Satellites i also serious Unfavorable climatic conditions have been a majo¼ factor in re atricting production durin g the past few years Lower p' eduction has also resulted from su h other conditions as peasant resistance to collectiYization c mpulsory delivery of products to the State the low prices paid for those products and high taxes -- all of which have reduced individual incentives With normal we ther conditions and the successful p c-osecution of a program of rea incentives to peasants the SeLtellite ar a not only could become self-$ufficient in grain but also could regai 1 its status as an area of s 1lus production The per capi'ta grain production in China i clouded by the great variation in population estimates Because of lack of bette - information China's PO Ulation count is presently be ng held static As far as productio 1 is concerned there appears io have been less change in Chj_na a decri ase of about 4 percent betweln the late th Lrties and 1953 than in the other countries of the Bl c On the ba ds of a static populatio 1 per capita production of gr in in 1953 wai about 229 k l lograms -- far lower than in other Bloc ountries Moreover - 2 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 0935A000300020001-9 - Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T population may be greater than that being currently estim l ted which would make the grain situation even less favorable than it appears In spite of internal exhortation designed to increase gra in production in Communist China it is improbable that in the long run any significant increase in per capita production can be atta Lned The long-term•view of the grain situation in the USSR is not optimistic The European Satellites probably can improve their situation somewhat but at best the quantity of their surpluses cannot be expected to equal those enjoyed before the war The Chinese situation is more or less static with the possibility of becoming worse Therefore except in years of unusually favorable climatic conditions the Soviet Bloc as a whole may be expected to be not more than self sustaining I The Soviet Bloc Grain is the most important class of food and feed products in the Soviet Bloc As food grain contributes on the average more than half the caloric value to the average diet in the European Satellites about two-thirds in the USSR and up to nearly threefourths in Communist China The importance of grain as feed is greatest in the European Satellites and -- because of human competition for grain as food -- of least importance in China Although all of the cowitries in the Soviet Bloc are allied politically each has its own economic aspirations goals md problems Inclusion in the Bloc has not resulted in free exchange of goods among the countries nor has it resulted in Bloc t mi ty n in economic policy and planning The production and utiliza tion of agricultural products is not planned for the Bloc as a whole and there is enough rigidity in each country's agricultur a l economy to preclude a leveling of per capita production and utilization It must be recognized however that in time of emergency the centralized political and military power of the USSR will ati empt - 3 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00835A000300020001-9 I S-E-C-R-E-T I to mobilize thE resources of' all Bloc co·mtr iJes for a connnon cause It is therefor necessary to consider BL c cdpabilities an 'l achievements in the aggregate and to make compariso s when desirecl between these factors or the Bloc and for the NA TO qr for other groups of free cmmtrie s • j A I 1953 Gcain Production ff Total grain production in the SovietJBloc in 1953 estimated at 225 million tons was about 5 perceni bel w the production of 237 million tens estimated for 1952 and 10 wrcent below prewar annual production 1he greatest reduction occurred in the USSR whereas production in China was about the same as in 1952 Production in Eastern EuropE was however higher than in l952 an unfavorable crop year i I j Although grain acreage in 1953 of 2 5 million hectares was 1 5 mi i lion hectares above 1952 adverse we ther in most regions of the USSR and China resulted in less favorab e growing conditions for crops in 1953 than in 1952 Yields for 195 which averaged 10 5 centners per hectare for all grains were low in comparison with 11 1 and 11 3 centners per hectare in 1952 nd in prewar rears reapectively 1 B Significance i 'Bloc population estimated at T87 m llion people in 1953 is 4 million greater than in 1952 and 20 milli m greater than prewar po ulation fer the same area Because of the increase in population I and the decrease in grain production the sp pply of grain for food in 1953 was rot so favorable as it was in 1952 and much less favor i ble trum in prewar years For exampl i2 the gross grain production per eapita is es-cimated at 86 ilograms in 1953 I The USSH Communist China Albania Bqlgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany_ Hungary Rumania and Poland See Table 1 p 20 below for grain tatistics by najor Bloc area and typ1 of grain i -lH Althoug 1 gross production per capita s a bypothetieal concept which is not appropriate for making quantitative deductions concerning actual f od supplies it is a factor t iia t is useful for making comparisons if different years It ie a d vice that changes the unfamiliar production measure of milUon m$tric tons to kilograms - 4 S-E-C-R-J i -T i Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP 9T00935A000300020001-9 I - __ Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T compared with 303 kilograms in 1952 and 325 in prewar yea rs Table 2 II The USSR A 1953 Grain Production See The rainfall pattern in the USSR in 1953 was generally unfavorable for crop production Drought conditions prevailed in the southern Ukraine a most important winter-wheat region The drought coupled with a continuation of the general shift in acreage from coarse grains to wheat resulted in a decrease in total production Production in 1953 estimated at 81 million tons was about 12 percent below the production of 92 million tons estimated for 1952 and 9 percent below the production of 89 million tons in prewar years Tables 3 and 4 If the total grain production for 1953 is related to the total USSR population the resulting factor gross production per capita is considerably below similar factors for 1952 and the average for the late prewar period Table 5 -lE- 1 Bread Grains -lHE-lHE- The 1953 production of bread grains was estimated at approximately 53 million tons compared with 61 million tons in 1952 Low yields were the chief cause of the difference in production because the acreage seeded to these crops in 1953 was only fllie- htly less than in 1952 Yields in 1953 were about one centner per hectare or 12 percent lower than in 1953 Both the acreage and production of bread grains were still below the prewarxxxxx acreage the acreage by 7 million hectares and production by about 8 million tons 2 Coarse Grains xicicxxx Coarse grain pruduction in 1953 is estimated at about 21 million tons compared with about 25 million tons produced in per person a smaller measure that is far easier to visualize and one that makes allowance for changes in population Table 2 follows on p 21 Tables 3 and 4 follow on pp 22 and 23 respectively ' HE-lHE-lHE- Table 5 follows on p 24 Wheat and rye 1938 xxxxxx Barley oats and corn - 5 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T 1952 although the acreage seeded remain d t e same Prewar acreage and production were about 7 million hecta res and 7 million metric tons largerJ reupectively than those estimat t for 1953 Ali hough the acreage and prod uct on of all graj_ns have been below late prewar averages the emphasi placed on the production of whent in the postwar period b y th1USSR has been a major cause of the decrease in the acreage utilize for coarse grain production Unf'a rorable weather in 1953 was a · jor cause of the decrease in yields it is estimated that yie ds averaged only 7 8 centners per hE Ctare compared with an averag1· yield of 8 8 centners per hectare in 1952 3 • Rice and other Grains From an acreage of about 200 hec ares rice production is estimated to have been about 400 000 tons in 1953 about the same as the acreage and production of 1952 ani of late prewar years Yields in 1953 estimated ai 20 centners per hectare also remained about the same In comparison with breai an coarse graine rice production in the USSR is insignificant Thei production of other gr9 ins in 1953 is eBtimated at about 6 mil _ion tons This is about the Jame production that was estimated for 1952 but it is some 2 mil ion tons below prewar levels In 19' i3 however almost 1 million ni ore hectares were sown to these grain than in 1952 Compared to t11 e 11 million hectares sown during thEi late prewar years the 1953 'creage represents a decrease of 2 11illion hectares B Plans The Fifth Five Year Plan 1951-55 c lled for an increase of 40 to 50 percent in grain production over 19 0 During the first 3 years of the p an annual production has not jincreased significantly In f'act produ tion in 1953 was about 4 mill on tons or 4 7 percent belc w production in 1950 the base year desI tite the fact that approximately 4 11illion more hectares were seeq ed in 1953 thEm in 1950 Recent decrees which are intended tolincrease grain production were announced after the 1953 harvest when production fell to the Buckwheat 1aillet legumes and vetch en reporting grain production the U 3SR includes legumes and vetch - 6 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 w' Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T ' lowest levels since 1949 The most important decision on the expansion of grain production issued recently was on 2 March 1954 when the plan to reclaim idle land and extend the production of grain in new areas was announced 1 The plan provides for an expansion of the grain acreage by 2 3 million hectares in 1954 and by 10 7 million hectares in 1955 bringing the total expansion to 13 0 million hectares Envisaged in this acreage expansion is a production increase of nearly 20 million tons The following discussion indicates that although the acreage goal may be reached only exceptionally favorable climatic conditions could result in an increase in production of 20 million tons If normal conditions prevail however production can be anticipated to increase by less than half this amount In addition some 4 million hectares more are expected to be seeded to coarse grains and other crops on land that has recently been used for low-yielding perennial grasses 2 This is a less ambitious project than the plan to expand seedings on virgin land and is more likely to succeed C Significance The USSR depends greatly upon agriculture for fo l feed and fiber about half of its population depend directly upon agriculture for their living The failure to increase or even maintain production presents an alarming picture to Soviet leaders Soviet grain production in particular has failed to return to prewar levels The significance of stagnation in grain production becomes most apparent when it is contrasted with total population which has been increasing by about three and one-half million each year With a 1953 population of 214 million the quantity of grain produced in the USSR in 1953 indicates a gross per capita production of 377 kilograms for the consumption year 1 July 1953 through 30 June 1954 The gross per capita production for 1953 is 13 pereent less than the 435 kilograms indicated for 1952 and almost 18 percent below the 461 kilograms produced per capita in the late prewar period Footnote references in arabic numerals are to source1 1 listed in Appendix C Chiefly wheat and millet ff Population is estimated at 211 million for 1952 and 192 million for 1939 - 7 8-E-C-R-E -T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 I l Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79100935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T Althoug1 not so dramatic as are compa isons of grai ' l to population similar comparisons of coarse grains o livestock n° unbers woulcl indicate m even less favorable ratio o feed per animal which is a factor teniing to reduce productivity sitnificantly mxcept for hogs livestock numbers will not be affected s directly by grain shortages as will animal weights and the prodijiction of dairy products Horses cattle and sheep -- the roughage con umers -- can subsist with little or 10 grain if coarse feed supplits are available Overall decreases i 1 grain production whether gr atest in bread or coarE e grains impinge upon the food supply -• bread grain directly and coarse grai 1 indirectly as it reduces aniitJB l productivity The pro sram to expand wheat productioJ into the lower Volga EconGmic Regio 1 VI and North Kazakh SSR EcJnomic Region Xa indicates that · be USSR is putting greatest eit1phasis upon b c-ead grain production 3 An interlinear reading f recent Soviet decrees however indica· es-tha t some balance between read and coar1 e grains will be naintained by reducing the seeding of bread grains tn their traditional area s of production as expansion takes place in the new margjnal areas Part of the land formerly us1d for wheat in European USSR may be used for coarse grains A shift trongly in favor of bread grain production would be counter to the aims lof the Soviet consumer goods program which is aimed at improving thq level of liv Lng by providing highe - quality foods It is axiomai ic that more mouths can be fed with the grain produced from an acre o land than with the products from a nirr als fed the same amount of grain but the latter provide on the whole a more palatable and pq ssibly healthful diet A balance between these two extremes appears Jo be the courHe the USSR is taking 1 If how1iver expansion of the grain a reages · into IDELrginal areas fails as it is apt to do unless extremely favorable elirnatic conditions prevnil and population continues o increase as it most likely will for some time to come the conswntjr goods program will be hampered AB a result the Soviet planners may be forced into a posi tion of hav Lng to produce for survival 'ljihis eventuality will demand great in reases in the directly cons d crops chief of which are bread grainn at the expense of indirect j consumed crops such as coarse grainn and other feed crops Possi ly the only alternative under these conclitions would be for the USSR 40 become an importer of staple foodstuf s As an importer the USSR vtould be vulnerable to ecorromic sanctions imposed by the food exporttig nations - 8 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 fi00935A000300020001-9 I Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 8-E-C-R-E-T The lower Volga and North Kazakh SSR regions where most of the expansion is to take place are in a belt where the soil is poor and rainfall uncertain The program however entails the reassignment of manpower including managers and specialists already employed on productive collective farms Some machinery being allocated to the new areas could be used effectively in the old areas of production The new area is supposed to get 120 000 tractors in 15 horsepower units in 1954 This compares with 139 000 similar general purpose tractors 15 hp units which were the total deliveries to all of agriculture in 1953 ±_ The USSR appears therefore to be taking a great risk with its manpower and capital Rainfall in the new area ranges between 12 and 16 inches per year Experience has shQwn that two corr lete crop failures usually occur in each 5-year period in these regions of Russia receiving an annual precipitation of 12 to 20 inches 5 In the past extensions to acreage customarily seeded to spring wheat in Asiatic USSR have proceeded slowly because of low yields and frequent crop failures Yields have been about 7 centners per hectare in the years when the crop could be harvested § Increased production from this extension of acre age in 1955 probably will be no more than 6 million to 7 million tons in contrast to the 18 million to 20 million tons calculated by the Soviet government on inflated and unrealistic yield estimates Consequently the cost of this production will be inordinately high ' The more modest program to restore grain crops to idle land and land tbat has recently been used for perennial grass crops in the better agricultural areas of European Russia should be relatively more successful The scale of this program however is too limited to bring about a significant increase in total grain production III The European Satellites Excessive precipitation in the European Satellites in the autumn of 1952 delayed fall plowing and seeding which resulted in a decrease in sown area In addition a dry and cold spring in 1953 reduced the yield of grain below earlier expectations If In EaBt Germany See the map Western USSR Spring Wheat Acreage following p 10 Include Albania Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland and Rumania - 9 8-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T Czechoslovakia and Poland root crops are ha vested at approximately the same time that fall plowing and sowing oc urs This high seasonal workload combir ed with a reduction in farm lahor that has taken place in recent yearE has resulted in a serious drop in winter wheat and rye acreage • I Because of the favorable sowing cond tionb existing during March and April early estimates indicated that the 1 loss of acreage devoted to winter grair s would be made up with SJ ring grains The shortage of farm labor and machinery unpopular collectivization programs and peasant resistance however resulted in disorganization in carrying out spring sowing plans Government announcements of plan fulfillment and its critic j sm pertaining to support of thb 1'new course II indicated that the planned acreage goal for bread grain was not fulfilled The 1952 planned acreage of bread grain was also underfulfilled l1 A 1953 Grain Production Grain production in the European Sat llites in 1953 has been estimated to be 34 8 million tons or 103 perc nt of the poor crop year of 1952 tut only 76 percent of prewar The 1953 grain acreage of 28 5 million hectares was less than 1 perc nt larger than 1952 and 12 percent below the prewar average of 32 5 million hectares Acreage of bread grains was below 1952 an a r sult of adverse sowing conditions in the fall of 1952 and lack of se din the spring of 1953 Coarse grain acreage increased by 3 4 ercent over 1952 as a result of increased plantings of oats and car Yields of bread grain in 1953 average approximately the same as for 1952 In the northern area-lH gro ing conditions were not as satisfactory for grains as in 195f ese conditions resulted in yields of wt eat and rye remaining at or sl ghtly below 1952 levels while coarse grain yields were unchanged Inl the southern area ff yields of all erains were higher than in the poor crop year of 1952 The most significant increases over 1952 were in the yields of corn See TableE· 6--13 pp 25 through 32 belo and production by country Eastern Germany Czechoslovakia ancl Po ffiEHungary F Ulllania Bulgaria and Albania acreage yield d - 10 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 j00935A000300020001-9 I - Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 SECRET ' LU ' ' u g UJ l rl c u cr i I 0 z i 0 z ' C C z L1J en 3 ' ' ' ' ' z ' 'f ' c l Q r 0 J 0 l2 ' 8 z ' ' 0 0 7 'C 79T00935A0003000200 c-crnr--r zi r 2 0 n 0 l Q g M t Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T The gross per capita production of grains estimated at 376 kilograms for 1953 is only a slight increase over the 1952 level of 367 kilograms The prewar average per capita production of grain was 487 kilograms When compared with 1952 and 1953 this lecline readily indicates the failure of the Conmrunist governments to increase the production of grain at a rate commensurate with the growth of population 1 Bread Grains • The bread grain acreage in 1953 estimated at 14 9 million hectares was 300 000 hectares or 2 percent less than the acreage utilized for bread grains in 1952 and 14 percent less than prewar The greatest reduction in the 1953 acreage occurred in East Germa with a 16 percent decrease as compared with 195 2 The average yield of bread grains for 1953 was 12 7 centners per hectare as compared with 12 9 in 1952 and 14 3 i n prewar Rye yields in Poland and East Germany showed the greatest reduction while wheat yields remained approximately the same as 1952 The yields of wheat and rye in the other European Satellites showed increases over 1952 but they still remained below their prewar average Bread grain production for 1953 estimated at 19 million tons is 650 000 tons or 3 percent less than 1952 The 1953 production was also 5 8 million tons or 23 percent below the prewar average of 24 8 million tons produced in the average prewar year 1935-39 average The gross per capita production of bread grain in 1953 estimated at 205 kilograms is 96 percent of the gross per capita production in 1952 and 78 percent of average prewar years Difficulty was experienced by some Satellite governments during 1952-53 in adeq_uately supplying their people with bread With a d ecrease in per capita production for 1953 as indicated above it appears probable that the situation will show no improvement unless wheat and rye are imported in sizeable quantities Poland and Hungary normally net grain exporters have been negotiating for significant imports of grain including bread grain See Table 14 p 33 below Wheat and rye See Table 10 p 29 below - 11 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 ' 8-E-C-R-E- 2 Coirse Grains ' Th2 1953 production of coarse gr ins in contrast with bread grain i 3 estimated to have been large¾ than 1952 but is still below 1951 and prewar levels Production is estimated to have been approximately L5 million tons or 13 percent 4bove 1952 bu- - it is stiJ l 27 percent below prewar averages The production of both oats and barley show increases over 1952 but the most significant increase is that of corn which increased by a proximately 33 percent over 1952 as a result of increased acreage atj d yield ThEi total acreage of coarse graiqs for 1952 is estimated at 12 9 million hectares compared with 1 2 5 I4illion in 195 and 14 4 million in preuar years The increase i i 19 3 acreage over 1952 came as a result of a favorable spring for sowing Jand less of a loss in the corn acreage due to summer drought t ' lan 9ccurred in 19 i2 The average yield of coarse grai s in 1953 is Estimated at 11 6 centners per hectare or 109 percent of 1952 and 82 percent of prewar yielc s Yields of oats and barley in 1953 were approximately the same as 1952 but the corn yield ihcreased by 2 8 percent as a result of more favorable growing and harkr-esting conditions during l 1953 I B Plans I i Grain production in the Satellites har not been meeting planned goals for the p9 st 2 years The Five and Six Year Plans for agri1 culture announced by the various goverrunEnts i called for gr9 in product Lon to reach and in some areas to exceed rewar levels by the end of the plan The increased production of grain was to be accomplished by holding the grain acreage generalljr below prewar levels and increasing the yields significantly The l plan goals however have not been r alized to date The anncunce nt of the rrnew course 11 in agriculture · Jy the various governments is taken to mean an admissj_on of previous failures l The 11ne'v course II in agriculture for E4stern Europe places great emphasi s 11pon the necessity for increas 1ng livestock numbers I I J Barley oat and corn Albania 19' 55 Bulgaria 1953 Czechoslov9-kia 1953 Hw1 ry 1954 Poland 1955 and Rumania 1955 - 12 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 100935A000300020001-9 I I - _ Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T and slaughter weights of meat animals Accomplishment requires an increase in the feed supply in which grain plays a significant role Although there is to be a slight increase in acreage mostly of the bread grains the increased production of both bread and coarse grains is to be primarily a result of increasing yields per hectare It is planned tbat the increased yields will result from j_ncreasing the incentives to the peasants increasing the use of chemical fertilizer and agricultural machinery and a more cautiom collectivization program during the next two years C Significance The European Satellites as a result of a below-average grain harvest for the second year in succession now find themselves in the position of drawing on reserves and of having to be net importers of grain if they hope to fulfill recent promises to the population of a higher standard of living Bread grain production in 1953 in East Gennany Poland and Czechoslovakia was below 1952 With an increased population this situation necessitated intreasing imports of bread grains for East Germany and Czechoslovakia and a resumption of imports for the first time since 1947 fo r Poland in order to maintain 1952 levels of bread consumption Coarse grain production although more favorable than 1952 because of the increase in corn production in the Balkans sti 11 was below government expectations Hungary and Poland bave negotiated for imports of feed grains from Western countries Normally these two countries are exporters of feed grains The net effects of low grain production in 1953 are estimated to be 1 an increase of grain imports by Eastern Europe over previous years 2 a decreased ability of some Satellites to implement fully their consumer goods programs as a result of having to import grains and 3 inability of most Satellites to replenish s tate reserves of grain from which withdrawals were made last year without endangering food and fodder supplies Hungary plans to increase the area sown to bread grains by 5 percent Poland plans to expand grain acreage by some 400 000 hectares The Minister of Agriculture Jan Dab-Kocial in December 1953 claimed that 11 in order to secure the food supply of the cout1try • • we had to import some grain 2 - 13 8-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T IV Communist China A 1953 Grain Production Estimates of grain production for Comm ist China include the following rice wheat kaoliang corn nillet barley and oats All of these grains excepting kaoliang and milliet are shown separately for consolidaticn into Soviet Bloc totals S e Table 15 Kaoliang the millets anc a miscellaneous grain class ajr'e included under the general classifjcation of other grains The area covered by the estimates of grain production exclude the autoromous regions of Tibet and Inner Mongolia the province of Sikang andJ except as ncted Sinkiang I Adverse weather in 1953 resulted ln le ss favorable growing c0nditions for crops than in 1952 During thej growing season rainfall was irregular and apparently below norma 1 in nruch of the rice growing area J n May and June for example c1'rought delayed rice transplanting in no fewer than six provinces This subnormal rainfall area extenc_ed in a rough semicircle 'rom Yunnan in the southwest to Kiangsu on the east coast In much oti the winter wheat area a generally advE rse winter was followed b f a te and severe frost that lowered yiE lds in some of the import1mt vJ heat producing provinces An expansion in the acreage of both rice 1 md wlheat however served to compensate for adverse growing conditions j The ten1 ative estimate of 1953 grain reduction in Communist China is 109 860 000 tons This is less than ia 2 percent decrease from the 111 88' i 000 tons estimated for 1952 ut is 4 percent below the prewar average of 114 471 000 tons ' 'he ice acreage expanded roughly 4 percent in 1953 and the wheat a ere ge increased ·1 iy about 6 percent The combined production of these ains represented 64 percent of all grain productj_on The Chinesii Communists report a grain pr duction tonnage that includes the grains as given here plus peas pulses soybeans and potatoes It i 3 not known if the potatoes ar included in this aggregation on an absolute or on a grain equi alent basis Unforttmately man r intelligence publications us1 the same or similar tonnages for Chi na under the same imprecise h ading Table 15 f llows on p 34 1 The wheat ·production of Sinkiang is incl1ded in the grain product Lon estimate for the first time in 1953 As this is lei s than 500 000 tons i' lteryear comparisons are nots gb ificantly d Lstorted by this additioa - 14 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 - __ Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T In terms of total grain production the increases in wheat and rice acreage were extremely important in offsetting the adverse conditions of the 1953 growing season Wheat and rice consti tuted about two-thirds of total grain production As long as this proportion of the total is maintained the total grain output will tend to remain relatively stable Although the rice and wheat acreage was expanded in 1953 it is unlikely that any of the other grain acreages expanded significantly Total acreage for the listed grains in 1953 was approximately 7 percent over the prewar average Moreover it is difficult to credit an expansion of principe 1 crop acreages larger than the 3 percent expansion tbat occurred from 1952 to 1953 Under these circumstances the grains other than rice and wheat a re carried at 1952 acreage levels Adverse weather resulted in decreased yields and thus in lower production of grains other than rice and wheat This decrease was approximately 6 percent Grain production in 1953 also was lower than the Chinese Communists had planned On 4 February 1953 Chou En-Lai in a re port to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference stated that the grain production goal for 1953 was 109 percent of 1952 10 Adverse crop conditions during the spring and summer caused a revision in September 1953 of this target to 106 percent of 1952 production 11 By September 1953 it would seem that even this goal was optimistic According to CIA estimates actual grain production in 1953 was only 98 percent of 1952 grain output Although not all Chinese claims of recent production are known the Communists have announced that grain production in northeast China in 1953 was only 93 percent of the grain production in 1952 12 B Problems of Supply and Distribution On a per capita basis the production of grain in 19' 53 was 229 kilograms as compared to 233 kilograms in 1952 This iB a decrease of about 2 percent and is below the prewar product Lon of grain per capita by about 4 percent Table 16H gives per eapita production for the various types of grain The acreage yield and production of grain in Communist China are given for a prewar year and for each year from 1950 through 1953 inclusive in Table 15 p 34 below ¾- Table 16 follows on p 35 - 15 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 I Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 I I S-E-C-R-E-T Rice prcduction in 1953 reached 100 ki ograms per capita for the first time ince the Connnunists gained conitrol of China The production of wreat per capita has remained re atively stable at about 47 kilograms or approximately at the prewar vel It is to be noted that a constant pop lation figure was employed in calculating these per capita producyion data If the census current Jr being conducted by the c iine e Communists j_ndicates a population growth the per capita grain outI ut figure will be even less favorable than that shown in Table 1 S i l The quantities of grain produced in 1953 do not in themselves indicate a dete iorated food position Food hortages in a number of localized country districts apparently havd resulted from adverse weather in 1953 but the problems of interproiincial movement of food tuffs probably have been ma de more diffiiult Food sh lpments to urban areas rnay be an even greater problem 1 since the traditional surplus areas of rice and of coarse grains were affected mo t adversely in 1953 To supply the urban population it may have been necessary to dr1w foodstuffs from areas which1normally are more or less self-suffi ient j I The gov-ernment is encroaching to an i creasing degree on the food distribution field Estimates of the mu nbers of people dependent to some degree upon marketing functions perfohned by the government I range as high as 200 million Because of' theigovernment's assumption of marketing functions and delays in its pric stabilization activities lags in supply adjustment have resulted A gpod crop year or a plentiful supply of grain tends to obscure the ecpnomic strains resulting from controlled prices and inept distribution The slight fall in total grain prcduction in 1953 tended to reve l or emphasize the problems inherent 1n the Cornrmmist practice of coptrolling prices and supply movements i I In likE manner the failure of the 195B crop of grains to equal or exceed the J 952 production probably has rel i cted unfavorably on the government's storage or reserve program Stdrage or reserve plans were likely ba12 ed on the achievement of the oodstuffs output goal in 1953 which was scheduled to be 109 percerJi't of 1952 Since production decreafied rather than increased maitjtenance of th€ reserve plan would haVE further worsened the already jprecarious food position of the populat on I I - 16 8-E-C-R-E-T I Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T The size of the reserves that the Communists wish normally to carry are unknown Various indications have pointed to 20 million to 30 million tons of grains above commercial stocks Such reserves however are believed to be relatively small as yet and the 1953 crop does not appear to offer a ravorable opportunity for their expansion C Significance The failure of the 1953 grain crop to increase or even to equal the production of 1952 probably hinders government operations in several ways Exports to the USSR in payment for industrial capital are made more difficult Although grain output wa s not down sufficiently to indicate that the Chinese Comrmmists could not obtain the quantities of grain desired for export internal discontent with the regime's procurement and export program would probably have been less if a larger grain crop had materialized Because signif'icant additions to grain reserves are considered to have been unlikely in 1953 price stabilization of basic foodstuffs and the build-up of strategic reserves for military use may have proceeded at a slower than desired pace Because the Chinese Communists have firm political control internally the decrease in ain output in 1953 is not likely to have signif-icant effects on their intentions Any plans of sufficient importance probably will be carried out Nevertheless some delay may result in the implementation of those plans having a low priority in the economic field - 17 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 '-'' Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T ------ APPENDIX A STATISTICAL T ABIBS - 19 S-E-C-R-E-T ------ Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T -----Table 1 SovieT Bloc O O 0 c5 C Acreage Mi ' 0 I USSR Sutellites Yield Centners r Hectare PToduction Millioo Metric Tons Acreage Yield Millior Centners per Hectare _ecta res Produci ion Million Acreage Million Yiel l Centners Product ion Metric Tons Hect ares per Hect are tric Tons 68 1 34 3 10 8 7 7 8 3 7 0 113 2 7 8 17 i 14 4 i J 14 l 11 4 52 4 28 6 7 6 69 1 29 7 8 3 8 4 6 3 h o 88 6 102 8 e 16 3 13 2 o 6 57 2 25 1 2 5 69-7 29 0 7-5 7 8 7 -9 6 5 8 2 84 8 1o6 2 7 8 a 2 7 15 2 12 5 12 9 10 6 13 3 54 6 22 9 4-9 70 8 28 3 8 2 Million Acreage t-1 illior Hectares Yield Centners per Hecta e Production Million I C Metric Tons 8 6 8 8 7 -l 60 9 24 9 6 o 6 8 o 0 2 27 l 9-3 53-4 21-2 6 1 82 4 107 3 8 6 91 8 1o6 6 o ·7 2 • 19 7 13 2 0 8 15 2 12 5 12 9 lv 6 13 3 19 6 14 9 20 4 o 8 if6 13 J 18 0 12 7 u o 8 6 19 0 i_3 2 o 8 o 6 o 6 13 3 -o s o 6 E 2 14 2 46 o 30 l 13 8 41 5 28 3 lU 33-7 28 3 2l 3 14 o 19-7 20 0 10 6 12 4 12 1 25 4 22 5 17 4 23 8 9 6 11 8 11-1 24 5 21 ' 18 3 21 8 50 7 22-5 15 5 19 6 18 8 46 o 22 5 15-1 19 0 18 7 9 9 11 8 11 4 24 2 22 2 Other Grains Rice 17 8 21 7 45 2 23 8 15 4 19 4 19 2 Subtotal 75 0 1 l 11 4 4 76 4 1 4 l 107 8 12 l 14 2 10b 9 1 0 Bread Grains CJ 'ti Bread Crains Coar Gr inS other Grains w 01 lo6 8 J Total Grains 62 7 51 2 220 9 3 10 6 16 2 99 ·1 66 4 82 9 10 58 4 '4 ·---- -m -e-·- - · - - - 5 - - - - - C d e i Q M 4_J 0 10 5 16 5 61 4 71-1 56 6 45 8 9 5 15 9 72 6 47 4 11 2 10 223 0 213 li See respect i ve country tF 1 bles for yea rs contai ned prewar average • C a in ' - °'' b iii en I ll 80 7 7 6 1c 11 9 33 6 28 4 12 3 31 8 9 4 22 5 18 6 23 1 4' -7 25 1 15 h 8 9 11 3 11 3 22 3 17 4 22 0 24 1 J 0 2 12 l 11 9 24 9 1 i 4 19 4 20 0 See Table 3 for USSR estimates See Table 6 for Euro Pea n Satellite est1m e tes See Table 15 for China estimates other grains include rice for China 53 9 5b 2 0 0 5£ 0 r _ 1n i 9 0 N ' I o 0 'ti Soviet Bloc 0 w Acreage Million 9 Coarse Grains I 0 0 0 'l1r r Subtotal China 0 0 0 l b - -- - cJ Bread Grains Coarse Grains 07 her Grain o 0 Million 'I 0 Subtotal European _ _ j__ 0 0 I 0 Production Yield Centners • - 2 Bread Grains Coarse Grains Other Gra ins iii ll en I 0 0 0 O -------------------------------------------------------------------0 Prewar aJ 1950 1951 1952 1953 _ 0 Es ti mated Acreage Yield 1 and Production ot' Grain Prewar and 1950-5 3 --------ll L - 10 1 110 2 0• J ¼ 9 7 16 4 77 6 49 3 1 6 17 1 11 1 231 3 214 9 10 5 225 4 8 6 9 J ·-- 0 5_ _ - 0 01 0 0 0 w 0 0 0 N 0 N 0 0 0 0 0 I 0 - 20 - I c o S-E-C-R-E-T t S t S 0 I S-E-C-R-E-T t S t S a 0 0 I a Table 2 0 Soviet Bloc ii' ii' 5 ll Per Capita Product3ron of Grains Prewar and 1950-53 Y iD ll ll I Kilograms ll I Grain Type Prewar Bread Grains Coarse Grains Other Grains D D D - - 0 D N El 1950 1951 1952 1953 130 131 124 132 l20 87 lo8 79 92 69 72 93 325 302 286 D D CD - 0 O N ' 99 68 98 303 286 - I O 'O ' Total Grains I 'O - I CD -I 0 0 D O'I 0 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 D a - -I 0 0 Population estimated as follows CD O'I 0 USSR - prewar 1939 192 million 1950 204 million 1951 207 million 1952 211 million and 1953 214 million China - A constant population of 480 million has been used to establish per capita data European Satellites - prewar 95 million 1950 90 million 1951 91 million 1952 92 million and 1953 93 million Soviet Bloc - prewar 767 million 1950 774 million 1951 778 million 1952 783 million and 1953 787 million b 1 Kilogra 2 201 6 pounds 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 ' - 2l - S-E-C-R-E-T ------ S-E-C-R-E-T -----l Table 3 C C USSR a -6' Estunated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain Pl·ewar I' or d l950- 5 3 EJ C a iii 1 C 0 $' ii Ill t 1 e _ _ Grain Wheat Rye Tatf 11 Bread Grains 1 0 0 0 - - Barley oats Coru 0 0 Acre8 1e Million Hectares per Reeta re 43 7 7 6 33 1 7 9 l -3 8 o 9 0 39 2 18 0 68 l 1 1 §2 l 2 J _g 10 7 8 3 7 9 10 5 8 9 ' ··1 0 9 0 17-7 3 0 8 1 8 2 i o 'i' 3 14 5 3 3 19 8 3 e Million He eta res ' o I cc ner'$ Production Million per Hectare Metric Tons 42 9 26 8 8 8 17 3 7 -3 8 7 3L3 23-3 Acreage V MJ U LVJ• Hectares Yield y - no -q 2 r Het tare Prod uction MilliO 'l Metric 'l'ons l y Acreage Million ne _1 c _ 06 2 8 4 38 8 48 2 24 6 9 0 22 l 22 0 Yield Centners C - t 1 rP 7 2 8 5 Production 34 7 18 7 7 8 54 6 70 8 8 6 §2 -2 7 6 _ I e o 7 0 8 8 8 5 7 6 8 2 8 2 14 3 16 1 2 8 7-4 10 5 J O 6 7 11 9 9 2 2 6 7 6 9 5 13 1 2 9 2 8 8 6 16 B 2 9 ll l §2 Q 1 2 g§ 1 21' 9 27 1 Total Other Gra ina 'lj 10 6 Z g u 2 2 g_ J_ u 6 2 u 8 o 1 9 5 6 2- l § o 4 2 2 2 Q i Q g_ 20 0 Q i Q g_ 20 0 9- f l g a b 0 d e 0 ii Ill t 1 1 0 0 0 0 - $' 0 Minion t c fons g§_ §_ ' l'o ti lG ·a i f per Hectare ACre1 ag0 1953 1952 l9 l Production Million Me1 ric Tons i u 0 0 0 49 0 oo -i Yield Centn rs 34 3 Rice Paddy -I MJ l1iOII Metric Tons Acreage Y Mil lion Hectares Total Coarse Ora ins p o Centners 1950 Production 24 4 N ' i Xielci e N ' c Tbej·eai- 1938 has been used as a prewar e creage be sf because Cr A corisiders tnu i u lio t '-1 l f rresentative year For a comparison of 19Jo with 19 3-37 and 19 5 39 baseG used by some Ma lys'ta see Tsbl e 4 Prod uc ion figuru are estimt tes of gr-ain a ctual Y harvested to Stvar bowxlaries Prevar production vas derived by applying average 1elds 1900-l5 to 1938 ad justed a creases Ac ages der i - red i r mos · ished uterie l Yields or 1950-53 bee r tbe same relation 't O selected wes e a ch of t_ ose yee rs as yields bore to sim 11 r selected weather dats tor the historical se -ies 1883 1915 ' lJ Includes buckwheat millet legumes e n d vetch 0 C 'C 0 -I 0 0 u c u l l 0 0 0 0 0 0 c c 0 0 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 I I 0 0 - 22 - S-E-C-R-E-T ------ O O - 0 C1 S-E-C-R-E-T ------ O O 0 a 0 - C1 a Table 4 0 - USSR Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain' Selected Prewar Periods D I» I C1 D I» I C1 1238 D D D - Grain Type 0 D N tJ Yield Production Centners Million per Hectare M tric Tons 12 5-32 Acreage Acreage Million Reeta res Yield Centners per Hectare Production Million Metric Tons Hectares MiiJ ion 9 0 Total Bread Grains Barley Oats Corn 43 7 24 4 7 6 7 9 33 1 19 3 37 2 23 2 7-7 8 3 28 8 19 2 42 1 24 6 8 o 9 1 33 8 22 4 68 1 7 7 52 4 6o 4 8 6 48 o 66 7 8 4 56 2 10 7 19 8 3 8 8 3 7-9 10 5 8 9 15 7 4 0 8 0 17 7 3 4 8 6 8 6 10 0 7 0 15 3 3 4 10 8 20 0 4 o 8 6 8 5 10 8 9-3 16 9 4 3 C -I Total Coar Grains 34 3 8 3 28 6 29 1 8 8 25 7 34 8 8 8 30 5 D Total Other Grains 10 6 6 8 7 2 13 6 5 6 I § 12 0 7 2 9 0 0 2 20 0 o 4 0 1 30 0 0 1 0 2 15 0 2 J 103 2 0 0 J'I Rice Paddy 0 0 0 Total Grains 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 - D Yield Production Centners Million per Rectare Metric Tons N Wheat Rye I Acreage Million Reeta res 1933-37 El D D D 113 2 - 7 8 88 6 81 6 113 7 8 4 i tJ D -I 0 0 C J'I g 0 0 0 0 0 96 0 N 0 0 0 - a Production'figures are estimatesof gra In actiiiilly ha rvested--- --llldatarelate to postwar-boundaries except 1933-37 which relates to ·prewar boundaries b Prewa r production was derived by applying average yields 1900-15 to 1938 adjusted acreages c ill· d I D - cb - 23 S-E-C-R-E-T § - -Q- - - Table 5 Cl Cl USSR a ID C Cl Per Capita Production of' Grain Prewar and 1950-53 a 0 Tl 0 0 Tl 0 Kilograms - - $1 Grain Type Prewar 1950 172 101 192 iD 1951 1952 1953 151 113 184 104 162 $1 iD Wheat ' ID Rye U U U 88 ' ID 87 U -- U Total Bread Grains 0 273 280 264 288 249 2i 46 82 36 71 j j 16 36 68 14 31 56 21 34 63 14 111 -118 99 2 29 435 377 U U N Barley Oats Corn I 0 C U -I 0 0 U j c n 0 0 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 - ________ Total Coarse Grains Tota 1---othe i GFa hi s Total Grains 1 _ - 12 3 2 12 ---- 461 415 __ _ __ 24 392 - 12 I 0 C CJ U -I ------ 0 0 U f a Population estimated as follows Prewar 1939 192 million 1950 204 million 1951 207 million 1952 211 million and 1953 214 million 0 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 « I U - 24 S-E-C-R-E-T L -•--- 'O 'O a 'O 'O S-E-C-R-E-T ------ a - CD Q 0 CD Q 'I Table 6 0 $1 European Satellites y Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 and Preliminary 1953 'I $1 co' I» I ff I» CD CD CD II CD 1935-39 Aver e 1952 CD Acreage Production Yield Thousand Centners Thousand Hectares 2er Hectare Metric Tons Acreage Yield p Production Thousand Centners Thousand Hectares per Hectare Metric Tons CD CD 0 - Grain Type CD N n Wheat Rye Total Bread Grains tJ CD Barley Oats Corn -4 Total Coarse Grains 0 0 CD Total Other Grains Preliminary 1253 g 0 0 Total Grains 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 a b c - 0 CD N n 8 647 8 753 14 6 13 9 12 604 12 211 7 880 7 348 12 3 13 6 9 656 9 998 7 712 7 233 12 6 12 9 9 751 9 295 17 400 14 3 24 815 15 228 12 9 19 654 14 245 12 7 19 o46 tJ 3 696 4 496 6 257 14 9 15 3 12 8 5 511 6 862 8 028 3 125 3 364 5 484 13 0 13 1 7 4 4 054 5 o65 4 o62 3 179 4 021 5 707 13 5 13 0 9 5 4 293 5 233 5 426 -4 14 449 14 1 20 4ol 12 473 10 6 13 181 12 907 11 6 14 952 641 11 1 714 602 11 9 717 222 11 6 695 18 25 5 31 36 23 6 85 37 24 6 91 32 508 14 1 33 637 28 488 12 2 34 784 JI Rice Paddy Acreage Production Yield E Thousand Centners Thousand Hectares per Hectare Metric Tons 45 961 28 339 11 9 CD 0 0 CD JI g 0 0 0 0 0 N 0 Includes Albania Bulgaria Czechoslovakia F a st Germany Hungary Poland and Rumania Calculated by dividing the production by the area Includes buckwheat millet meslin and spelt 0 0 ch ch - 25 - S-E-C-R-E-T ------ •- - S-E-C-R-E-T --- - Table 7 -0 a I 1935-39 Aver i ic T1 0 CD Ill Ill Grain Type Wheat Rye Total Bread G rains I D D - Acreage Thousa d Reeta res Yield Centners per Hectare r o 'C Tote l Grains a --- Hectares V 1 1 Centners per Hectare Production Thousand Metric Tons § c CIA estimate Estimated Acreage ifilH J dJ k _ Hectares ' Yield _ ___ '-'' -- --- per Hectare 85 o 8 3 4 o 7 5 71 0 3 0 98 0 3 0 4 o 10 5 8 3 89 0 Ll I 74 0 10 4 7 0 7 1 7 5 7 6 ·r c 1 4 0 r2 Qrj 8 o 6 3 5 o 8 3 10 0 129 0 12 0 12 0 J 2 o 14l O 148 o 1 0 2 0 13 6 u5 o 12 5 0 5 20 0 159 5 rj rj 9 0 12 0 12 0 95 0 97 o 7 9 12 9 111 0 121 0 11 8 l 2 l l' 6 5 8 I ' 17 6 u rj Based on information available as of 15 April 1954 b d Th _d 41 0 0 0 Prelimjn J 53_ 7 5 Procluci ion Thousand Metrl c Tons si 10 2 95 0 Rice Paddy l _2_52 4 o Corn Tota l Coarse Grains rJ 40 0 Barley Oats D N 'O 'O 0 C Albania Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of GrsJ n 1935-39 J vere ge 1952 and Preliminary 1953 'O 'Y Production rphnusand -t ric Tons 103 0 3 3 ·12 V Acreage Thousand Hectares Yield f Centners pe r · nt t l c _ '- C Production g Tl1ousa nd ' · ' '' 'e N A N A 11 5 9 0 N A N A N A N A 10 5 N A N A I N A N A 12 5 D D N A - 0 2 1 25 u N A N A D N 39 2 284 o y - l I o 0 'C -- ---- ------ ------------- ------------0 O g h i CD 11 3 0 4 o T1 0 Ill Ill 1o6 3 8 5 9 5 125 0 r I 1955 Plan D J2 -I 0 We1ghted average yield total production diYided by total area Probably includes wheat rye barley corn and rice 0 ---- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 w w N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 D D I I - 26 S-E-C-R-E-T 0 0 0 C a a S-E-C-R-E-T 11 11 C C 'Tl 0 'Tl 0 Table 8 if Bulgaria if Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 Pre iminary 1953 and 1957 Plan CD II CD II II II 11 O 1935-39 Aver e O Grain Type 0 O 0 I Acreage Thousand Hectares Wheat Rye Total Breed Grains 'ti Total Coarse Grains -4 Total other Grains 0 0 O c OI 0 0 0 c 0 0 0 0 0 0 fl Acreage Thousand Hectares Yield Centners per Hectar PrDd1 Cctio 'l 9 Throsand Metric Tons Acreage Thousand Hectares Yield Centners per Hectare ProdU tion Thousand Metric Tons 11 7 9 9 1 755 0 238 0 1 500 0 240 0 12 7 10 5 1 905 0 252 0 N A N A 18 3 N A N A N A 1 618 0 13 3 lj 2 163 0 1 740 0 11 5 lj 1 993 0 1 740 0 12 4 lj 2 157 0 i 'i k _ 378 0 131 0 9o6 o 295 0 155 0 800 0 342 0 lo4 0 440 0 295 0 155 0 8oo o 401 0 124 o 744 o N A N A N A 21 5 N A N A 18 5 N A N A 1 415 0 1 250 0 886 o 1 250 0 1 269 0 i _ 13 8 8 9 u o 11 3 lj 11 6 6 7 5-5 7 1 lj 13 6 8 o 9 3 103 0 £ l 127 0 60 0 9 8 22 £ §2 £ 10 0 60 o A 8 o 26 3 2 2 § 2 H 24 o 24 o _ 38 0 A 3 726 0 3 o6o o 2 961 0 3 o6o o 3 510 0 N A N A N A 2 975 0 12 5 lj a llased on information available as of W· CIA est i Jllate e Production 9 Thousand Metric Tons 1 500 0 240 0 b c d f g Yield Centners Eer Hectare 1957 Plan 1 880 0 283 0 Rice Paddy Total Grains Acrea e Thousand Hectares 11 1953 13 9 11 0 1 246 o O Productl on 9 Thousand Metric Tons Preliminary 1 361 0 257 0 274 o 147 0 825 0 Barley oats Corn Yield Centners per lfectare 1952 E 15 April 1954 9-7 lj £ 2 lj O O O -0 O N C I o CJ 'ti O -I 0 0 O t OI 0 0 0 c 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 Rounded to nearest thousand Weighted average yield total production divided by total area Spelt millet and meslin I ID O - 27 S-E-C-R-E-T S-E-C-R-E-T _c - _ Table 9 O O a II C 1935-39 Average Acr' a ge 0 ' 'I ID 'i'housan i Grain 'l'yl'_e Wheat 873 961 17 7 16 4 1 834 17 1 II 0 0 Total Bread Grains Production T11ousand Metric Tons Acreage Thousa od Hectares 800 650 17 7 17 4 3 127 1 1 50 17 6 17 4 l 18'3 620 l' 2 16 7 l 23J 600 16 0 287 140 16 0 2 6l 9 1 360 16 6 5 776 2 810 17-1 a b Total Coarse Grains 1 548 Total Grains 3 382 rr 9 17 1 17-1 g Thouse nd Metric Tans 1 416 lj sf 19_' i_3 Plan 1 - rr r ne Yield Production Thousand Hectares Centners ' l'nousa uu per Hectare 1 131 780 645 17 7 17 4 2 547 1 425 17 6 1 067 17 5 16 6 224- 645 610 135 2 251 4 798 960 O O ' 'I 0 Metric Tons Acreage _ _ - - ·- I l U'--' '-'-''-- • Hectares Yield r1 _ r - II V p -Hectare Production l'l'housand Wetric Tonsl 0 ' 'I ti II l 38o l 122 795 56o 17 8 2 502 1 355 18 9 685 615 125 18 5 18 5 i 6 2 1 129 1 013 219 22 0 1 13'7 275 1 390 17-0 lj 2 361 1 425 18 8 2 679 2 815 U J 4 863 2 780 li l 8 _ 5 236 ij C 19 6 1 558 ID 999 lj IJI II 2 557 0 1 267 - 0 D 0 0 I ' lnformahon available asof 15 Apiir 195 - CL 2 ti l itp d The new Five Year Plan for 1956-60 1s to oe l Ulll JW1L t - C i - l9'5 1i or 1955 O available e Rou ud ed to nearest thousand tons ---u -----y --wel ght- d--a-- IU Jld UC hl Q L_9'_i vided by area equals yield Prelimin Y___l-2 53 -- _ _ _ I lJ e J U 740 160 Corn and Mi xtures sf Centners per Hectare 1 577 1 550 v' G48 I 1 2 2 Ba ·ley 0 EJ Oats I ' Hectares Yield Centners per Hectare Rye IJI 0 l Czechoslovakia Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 Preli mo nary 1953 and 1953 Plan' An interilll program for 1954 and 1955 is under b ay but no plan data for agricultural production are 0 O ---------------------------·-------------- ---------------- --------------- ··-------- 0 0 -I 0 ______Q ___ 0 w J1 J1 l 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I' I' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I I - 28 S-E-C-R-E-T J J J J a a S-E-C-R-E-T t a t a 0 0 - a - a Table 10 Qi Qi East Germar y Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain 1935-39 Average 1952 PreUminary 1953 and 1955 Plan '3 UI t UI t w----------------------------------------------------------------------w 1935-39_ _Average £ - - - - - 1952 'lf Preliminary 1953 1955 Pl '1 - Acreage Thousand Hectaresl Yield centners ver Hectia r l Acreage Thousand Hectares Yield Centners per Hectare Production' Thousand Metric Tons JC - J C U• J -Q _1 7v' l cQ 'T U C _ 't r -- J U C J - I ' J • V' U 2 134 1 300 17 1 2 223 1 200 ij 16 2 1 944 1 803 20 6 r 3 723 1 1 '50 18 7 3 1 276 1 475 24 9 23 1 1 078 1 691 N A N A - I 264 h 553 I 3 152 ii 22 0 19 6 19 3 23 8 eJ 2 769 I169 2 968 r 6 492 2' '19 - 19 2 Baseq_ on information available as o · 15 April 1954 b § c CIA estimate Production has been rounded to nearest whole number See methodology section acreage y 581 l o84 293 1 165 Of 0 g Production' Thousand Metric Tons 17 8 433 732 y' 0 0 Yield Centners per He_ctare ht r VV - 8 d o e• - age Acre Thot sand Recti u-es 1 198 1 11- oo a V Production Thousand Metric _To_nsl__ r f 1 1 958 -- eJ -- 5 234 272 Y 709 'ij 149 17 5 17 5 r 2 1 590 2 590 Acreage Thousand Hectares N p N A o N A 598 1 297 283 1 1130 fJJ 19 3 ffl 2 178 N A 2 605 18 3 f 2 927 9_h -- ci5 Production Thousand Metric Tons _ n 22 0 18 3 19 0 -- Yield Centners ner Hectare -- i W g N A 25 0 7 317 w c 9 g O c O 0 ' J ±1 Weighted average total production divided by total area Includes mixed grains O O g i ' 2 oj- - JI o L 1 W N CD h 7 Summer mixed grai i and corn ' JY m n - o p Probably includes pulses 30 - 29 S-E-C-R-E-T S-E-C-R-E-T Table 11 Hungary Estimated Acreage_ Yield and Producti on ot Grain 1935-39 Avera e 1952 PreJirninary 1953 and 1956 Plan' -0 -0 -0 -0 I Cl a 1935- 39 Average Yield Acreage TI 0 - _ ···--- 1 Grain Type 0 J 1 ectares l fr ------ - - p r Hectarel £ 1952 Production Met i Tons ci RYe 1 656 641 14 9 11 6 2 82 71 6 1 2 297 lj 3 228 Cl Whee t Total Bread Grains Cl _ Barley Oats OCorn Total Coarse Grains 471 226 1 183 9 1 Other Total Grains u 1 880 NRice Paddy 13 9 12 9 19 7 4 186 lj 9 § 2 E _ 6 521 Acreage Yield Production' ' - d· nJC r '11hn11 Hnr1 Production J Thousand Metric Tons Metric Tons 1 357 V_ 502 1 761 V 567 'ij 1 302 ' f 482 'Y 14 3 11 8 1 862 d_ 569 'ij 1 859 ff lj 2 331 v 1 784 ff 13 6 lj 2 431 16 25 3 660 p r Hectare 13 0 10 9 11 0 11 5 lj 579 229 1 215 2 022 1 45 230 1 105 el 1 780 Yield centners ner Hectare 13 2 12 0 16 0 14 9 lj 0 Plan 1956 i c 13 0 11 3 Hectares 1 760 J s Acreage 'Thousand Hectares 445 210 1 105 3 285 1953 Preliminary J'fll rn1c -an -' v 657 291 2 337 9 15 6 lj v' rn v 1 s 587 276 1 768 V Acreage Thousand Hectares Yield Centners per Hectare Calculated Cl Prod uctiona Thousand TI Metric Tons 1 467 5' 512 2 18 2 lj 14 8 'fj 2 670 9 758 1 1 979 7 17-3lj 3 429 0 Y 460 4 N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A 2 631 'O b c 0 d e e Information available g ' § 1 37 N A N A N A 2- Q 22 25 10 0 25 N A N A 4 413 3 605 14 2 lj' Minimum yields Og W · EJ J· Cl 0 0 - N 5 124 a 1 April 1954 CIA estimate Calculated from total bread grains on basis of 73 percent of bread grain area for wheat and 27 percent for rye Calculated on basis of CIA estimated yields or asof ' 0 37 I a- Cl co CD 0 2 1 12 0 lj a 0 For 1956 Plan 75 percent and 25 percent respectively 'E -c 0 ----·-----------·----------------- L - o 0 0 0 Millet and buckwheat _ _933-37 average 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 I 0 - 30 - I 0 S-E-C-R-E-T O O O O a 6 a 6 8-E-C-R-E-T ------ C 0 $1 Table Poland i' D a 0 12 $1 Estimated Acreage Yield and Production of Grain and 1955 Plan' i' D 1935-39 Average 1952 Preliminary 1953 I I I 1935-39 Aver e CD CD D 0 Grain Type Acreage Thousand Hectares Yield Centners per Hectare 'El 1952 Production ' Thousand Metric Tons Acreage Thousand Hectares Preliminary Yield Centners per He ct are Production Thousand Metric Tons Acreage Thousand Hectares 12_55 Plan 1953 Yield Centners per Hectare Production Thousand Metric Tons Acreage Thousand Hectares Yield Centners per Hectare fD CD Product ion CD Thousand O Metric Tons Wheat - - 1 319 5 433 15 3 13 3 2 014 7 214 1 3li8 4 512 12 1 12 7 1 631 5 730 1 375 4 512 12 1 11 7 6 752 UV 9 228 5 86o 12 6 d 7 361 5 887 11 8 1 040 1 983 480 15 9 14 9 11 2 1 655 2 961 540 1 000 1 815 305 12 2 13 1 10 0 1 220 2 378 305 900 1 730 05 13 1 12 1 9 1 179 2 093 284 3 503 14 7 5 156 3 120 12 5 Hm 2 935 33 556 1 556 14 384 8 980 11 264 a a22 11 ·9 10 255 v IJ-v 1 664 5 279 'E v 6 943 10 499 Je N N n N A I 0 C 'IJ 9 000 v - N A 13 2 11 900 g w -- -- --- -- --- ---- - - - ----- -- - -- -- - -- -- - i---------------------------------------------------------t D a Based on information available as of 15 April 1954 b Postwar boundaries o 0 c Production rounded to nearest whole number O d Weighted average total production divided by total area O 0 e Includes millet meslin buckwheat and corn in centners 0 W f Yields of four principal grains given as 12 8 for 1952 and 11 9 for 1953 See source ill· g Calculated Production divided by total area o O 0 h Original Six Year Plan goal was 14 457 000 Mr grain l§ g N N 0 0 CD D 0 0 0 0 I I - 3l 8-E-C-R-E-T ------ -----6-E-C-R-E-T Table 13 C C Ruma nia Estimated Acreage Yield and Production or Grain C C 1935-39 Average 1952 Preliminary 1953 and 1955 Plan' ' I Cl 1935-32 Aver ie C Tl 0 Grain fy ee_ o Acreage Yield l'J 'nousana t enT ners Hectares per Hectare E Pr duction ' l' L'llOUHarlU l letric Tons Acreage J uOU wJ U Hectares Prelimin Y 1252 s J 1952 Yield Pr l tion Vt ilt 1- 1 1 lVl lbO L U per Hectare Metric Tons hieat lye 2 793 259 10 9 9 8 3 048 254 2 340 140 8 4 7 6 1 966 g Total Bread Grains 3 052 10 8 lj 3 302 2 48o LlU it rley cl ts O rn 822 656 3 994 7-4 8 3 10 9 610 544 4 369 489 519 3 315 5 3 5 8 6 3 lj 5 523 4 323 6 1 39 6o 8 6 4 27 0 A g - Total Coarse Grains fl 49 Total Grains her l lice • 2 7 9 Negligible Q_ l f l § §TI_ _v § 2 f _ M Metric Tons Acrefl e ____ m _ • - - ll _ _ _ Yield fr - Hectares r Hectare N A N A 12 5 Production 2 532 9 1 2 317 N A 3 740 259 301 2 o88 610 575 3 570 6 4 7-3 7 2 390 420 2 570 N A N A N A N A 2 878 5 14 0 N A N A 2 648 4 755 7 1 lj 3 38o N A 38 6o 9 7 2 29 3 43 26 N A N A N A 22 31 5 N A N A §Q Ll2§ 11 _ 5 76€ N A 2 382 u N A C l'Tl _ i ---- ------- Tl Metric Tons 0 2 072 N A N A 4 030 i i6 A UI Cl CD CD CD J Based on information available as of 15 April 1954 C tJ - 8· • • • • • • • i V 2 191 126 W· CIA estima e -4 VC L u 1 1 1 i per Hectare Production 9 2 8 4 • CO· LL 'V '- OC1 1 1ou Hectares _Yield 0 9 150 lo6 f creage 1255 Plan CD J_ ____ Rounded to nearest thousand Weighted average yield total production divided by total area Mixed grain buck lheat and meslin g CD CD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N w w w w 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I CD I - 32 - CD S-E-C-R-E-T -----• a O O a O O a c5C S-E-C-R-E-T ------ I a Tl 0 I 0 $1 Table 14 I $1 I Q in Q 1 European Satellites Per Capita Production of Grain Prewar 1952 and 1953 1 I I 0 D D ---- --- 0 - 0 D N 0- Albania Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germ any Hungary Poland Rumania N Tota' f • Bread Grains E l I o CJ 'O 0 I - Prewar 1952 1953 sJ o 44 $8 82 331 266 284 214 233 181 145 201 195 363 247 255 296 283 261 2o8 123 136 263 214 0 205d 0 -I All Grains 0 0 l l 0 0 0 0 Prewar 1952 1953 sJ OI 189 148 195 569 396 462 395 378 379 4o6 712 290 469 541 266 461 433 395 558 284 339 4878 3678 3768 0 N 0 a- 8b c wd Grain productibn of selected area divided by the population in year under consideration Wheat and rye 1935-39 average Bread grain corn barley oats miscellaneous and rice 0 0 I 0 - 33 - S-E-C-R-E-T ------ S-E-C-R-E-T -----Table 15 O O Camnunist Chir a a O 1950 Prewar a Acre5€e g tJ Cl Estimated Acreage Yield a nd Prciiuction of Grain Prewar and 1950-53 Grain Type Bread Grains ii Production Acreage J 1 e i w - J 1951 Production Acreage Yiel l R - - p Centners 9 e Thousand tric Thousand Hectares Centners per Hectare Production Thousand Metric Tons Corn Barley CD CD CD Oats ot r Grain 0 SUbtota l Coarse Grains Rice 1 10 57 22 5o8 22 505 9 64 21 690 22 497 9 86 22 189 23 813 9 44 22 481 2 126 8 88 6 217 6 739 1 036 19 677 13 99 9 77 11 68 8 696 7 871 881 23 8o1 8 372 6 203 949 19 558 12 91 9 19 7-72 10 8o8 6 75l 733 21 847 7 9oS 6 265 959 19 001 13 00 10 72 8 26 10 285 6 719 792 21 729 8 042 6 390 978 19 431 13 41 10 95 8 32 10 783 6 997 814 23 o84 8 o42 6 390 978 19 431 12 30 10 40 8 32 41 272 4 139 4 133 39 525 34 841 41 678 34 8l 50 714 18 776 45 976 18 713 45 177 19 178 1 7 726 19 971 114 471 76 363 107 8o5 75 343 1o6 891 77 832 111 885 ce t rs t '-' -- ✓ Thousand ____ ___ ' ' ' '' e b 74 953 25 36 24 49 24 14 0 tJ Cl 24 89 ii 9 892 6 Cl ' i 21 984 CD -c o 39 336 CD 24 l 3 4B 199 109 86o See Methodolcigy - Ap f ndix B Bread grains in Canmunist China consist Bl most exclusively of 'W'heat tJ ---a-------------- 0 I tJ Cl CD 0 CD 22 3' 5 2l 288 19 996 Tatel Grains Centners per Hectare Thousand Met ric •fans Coarse Grains Thousand Hectares Productio Thousand 14 'tr c Tons 'rJ Wheat Cl Yield per Hectare Q u Acreage f' T'h 11 And I ' ' I 1221 125_2 Yield Acreage Thousanil Hectares Thousan Yield Production Yield Centners O -----·--------- ------------·--·---· CD ·--------·------- L-- w 0 0 01 c o w 0 0 01 0 w 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 w 0 0 0 0 0 0 I CD - 34 - a S-E-C-R-E-T ------ O O O O 0 0 § - -Q- i- - C C Tl 0 Tl $' 0 Table - 16 il - UI Cl CD CD CD - CD Grain N I 0 UI Cl Kilograms 0 ' SI Communist China Per Capita Production of' Grain Prewar and 1950-53 SI Prewar 1950 1951 1952 1953 Bread Grains CD 46 9 Wheat w JI 0 0 0 45 2 46 2 46 8 46 5 N 0 0 0 Coarse Grains CD 0 CD -I Corn Barley Oats Other Subtotal Coarse Grains Rice I I 0 18 1 16 4 1 8 49 6 22 5 14 1 1 5 45 5 83 6 82 3 86 8 - 81 9 105 7 95 8 94 l 99 4 100 4 224 6 222 7 233_ _1 _ 2_28_ _2 21 4 14 o 1 6 45 3 Total Grains E 22 5 14 6 1 7 48 1 20 6 13 8 1 7 45 8 0 0 CD JI 0 0 0 0 0 0 N 'C -I 0 0 CD ' 0 'C CD CD CD 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 I 2 CD a A constant population of 480 million has been used to establish per capita data b Individual 1 tens may not add to total due to rounding - 35 S-E-C-R-E-T ------ t Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T APPENDIX B METHODOLOGY I Soviet 1938 Production and Yields 1950-53 Yields A Prewar Methodology The prewar acreage of the Soviet Union is the sum of the 1938 'l2f regional distribution of acreages republics kr rs and oblasts adjusted to 1945 boundaries plus the 1938 acres gen of each of the q uired territories Rumania 4o Poland 41 Czechoslo-- vakia Baltic States I Germany Finland and Japan The acreages of the acquired territories have been allocated to the new Soviet administrative regions 1945 boundaries formed after the acquisition of these new territories The production in ea ch of the newly acquired territories for 1938 was also taken from official sources and adjusted to new Soviet administrative regions The prewar production of grain for the Soviet Union other than the acquired territories was arrived at by multiplying the acreage for each administrative region by an average yield of each grain This average yield was fonnulated by taking the average for 1900-15 47 The following reasons are given in using this average for the regional yields of 1938 1 The calculated production for the country obtained by the use of 1938 regional acreages and 1900-15 regional yields falls between two independent estimates for the actual 1938 production of grain The calculated total of 88 6 millio tons is one percent above Jasny's estimate of 87 6 million tons and one percent below Volin's-lH - estimate of 89 4 million tons Jasny I s estimate for prewar was based on prewar boundaries His statistic of 76 million tons 48 was adjusted to postwar boundaries by adding on the 11 6 milliontons produced in 1938 for the acq_uired territories ff Volin gives estimates for the five major grains 49 wheat rye oats barley corn for the prewar territory The differential between biological yields and barn yields indicated by Volin for his major spring grains has been applied to the minor spring grairr buckwheat millet spelt and the like yields and pulse yields peas beans lentils This implied discount is nearly 16 percent - 37 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00i935A000300020001-9 I i CR E T S-E- - - - Ii - - - - -- - i i A study of grain yield trends over a 3 -year period 1900-15 1925-40 indicates no upward trend but rat er a slight downward one For this ree son it is felt that the utiliz tion of the 1900-15 regional yiE lds represents 15-year average1s that can realistically be used as yield averages in calculat Lng 13 prewar production base B i Postwar Methodology For the postwar period the produdion estimation problem has become rnore difficult In the first lace it is believed that the percenta ge discount between ''biological gross and barn net yield3 has increased so that the pr¢war computed discounts are not valid in calculating the differenfial between the published ''biological production and actual barn j harvest I Apparently the most valid met hod for estimating postwar grain yields results from a comparison of•past yield per-formance related to weather conditions and the use of these historical relationsM ps to make current yield estimates These yield estimates are ·based not only on current weat¥r data but al so on crop conditions reports gathered from field o servers and Soviet publications 1 I ALer individual yield estimates are made for the five major grains in • ach oblast kray or republic the national average yield for each of the major grains is calculatEtd by applying 1938 regional acreages t each of the estimated yieldsf These acreages act as weights in arriving at national averages t To arrive aJ the production of the five major grains for tt e ye rs 1950·53 t 1e yields obtained by the above method are muJ tiplted by total aGreages for each grain· I I T te production of the minor graips and pulses is estimated by assumir g that the magnitude of departp-re of the major springsown grair estinated yields from the average yields 1900-15 also The adjusted production of 78 8 mil ion tons for the prewar territory plus 11 6 million tons for th acquired territory gives an estima ed 89 4 mj_llion tons from Vol n 's basic calculations These acreages have either been obtained from Soviet publications or ire estimated I - 3e - I S-E-C--R-E-b ----r I Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP 9T00935A000300020001-9 I s _ - Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T applies to the degree of departure from the average for the minor grains and pulses Acreages of these grains and pulses are obtained as indicated in footnote page 37 II Eastern European Satellites The problem of estimating grain production has becon more difficult since 1949 when all production statistics were classified as state secrets by the Satellite governments Inasmuch aE there have been no violent fluctuations in grain acreage the annua l problem bas been primarily one of determining yields of the indj vidual grain to be applied against acreage data Yields have been computed on the basis of current weather data crop condition reports as available from field reporting and official publications This information is then correlated against historical information to obtain yearly deviations The result is a yield estimate for each of the five major grains These are applied against acreages to obtain total production Changes in acreages of grain crops from year to year are obtained by analyzing government plans and criticism of winter and spring sowing programs This information is then combined with what field observation reports are available to make any changes Where spotty checking or past estimates have been available as a result of announcements under the new course the above method of estimating has proved reliable III China This methodology covers the data which appear in Table 15 Explanation of table Communist China -- excludes the Autonomous Regions of Tibet and Inner Mongolia and the Chinese province of Sikang The province of Sinkiang is excluded from all ru ta except the wheat acreage yield and production data of 1953 Inclusion of Sinkiang in 1953 wheat estimates alters acreage and production data by less than 500 000 hectares and 500 000 tons res pectively 50 - 39 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 l I Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 I I I 8-E-C-R-E- 1 A Prewar Data I I For Cbina Proper data are the 1931-317 average For Manchuria data are the 1935-39 average These averager have been combined in a single prewar average figure 1 Wr eat l 51 - I 2 Ccarse grains - corn barley an' separately Cther grains include millet pr and miscellaneous grains All prewar y elds obtained by d ividing production by acreage separately below for source reference is a b c d Barley 52 Oats 53T Corn 54 Millet 55 - average millet roduction for Manchuria e f Proso-millet 56 I Kaoliang 57 -average lraoli ng production for 1931-36 Manchuria is oats are listed so-millet kaoliang are statistical ones Each grain is listed i 1931-36 - I g Miscellaneous grains 58 - the miscellaneous gra ns amount to les than l 5 million tons ancl arerestimated for Manchuria only They ccnsist of buckwheat rye npelt small quantities of oats and barlEy some legumes and mesl n mixed grains 3 Rj ce 59 - non-glutenous an 'l glupenous rice Glutenous rice acreage and production with the exceptr· on of prewar acreage are in all ca es less than 10 percent of the total B Data for 1950 1951 and 1952 Est mctes of individ' al grains are de separately fo China and Manchuria Generally within the frame pf reference provided by prewar acreagE and production the estirnatesj in the postwar years were made on E n analysis of Communist c1aims weather reports and reports of refugees The yield is a statist cal yield obtained by dividing prod-c ction by acreage Each grain ti s listed separately below for sou1·qe references I 1 Wt eat 60 2 Cc arse grains - see 2 under preJar reference j - 40 8-E-C-R-E-'r Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79Tj00935A000300020001-9 I _ Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 8-E-C-R-E-T a b c Barley 61 Oats 62T Corn 63 d Millet- 64 e Proso-millet 65 f Kaoliang 66 g Miscellaneous grains 67 - no information was available on which to base a 1952 estimate- - The estimate carried for 1952 was the prewar average 3 Rice 68 - see 3 under prewar reference C Data for 1953 Estimates for individual grains are preliminary For rice and wheat statistical yields were obtained by dividing production by acreage For the other grains decreases in yields we re calculated on the basis of weather reports and Communist production claims These yields were then applied against 1952 acreages of the various grains Each grain is listed separately below for source references L Wheat 69 2 Coarse grains - see 2 under prewar reference • a Barley - the estimated 1952 production 70 was adjusted to reflect 1953 crop conditions Inasmuch as wheat yield was reported about 6 percent below 1952 71 the barley yield of 1952 was lowered 5 percent to reflect generally poorer crop conditions The acreage was maintained at the 1952 level because of lack of information on which to base a change b Oats - acreage yield and production carried at 1952 levels 72 c- - Corn - the estimated 1952 production 73 was adjusted to reflect 1953 crop conditions Moderate to severe drought was indicated in 1953 for various corn growing areas 74 Acreage was maintained at the 1952 level because of lack of information on which to base a change Yields were decreased by roughly 8 percent this decrease approaching the previously lowest known yield d Millet and kaoliang - the estimated 1952 d ata 75 were adjusted to reflect 1953 crop conditions Reports indicated that general grain production in Northeast China was down about - 41 8-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 I I Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 i I I S-E-C-R--E-T i 7 percent 1 or 1 4 million tons 76 1'his Jecrease was subtracted from millet and kaoliang on the basis of heir relative 1952 output after t ie previously estimated corn 01 l tput decrease for the Northeast h i d been considered The net d crease in the production of millet a id kaoliang totaled 1 1 millio tons e Proso-millet - acreage yield and prod· 1 ction earried at L952 levels 77 I f Miscellaneous grains 78 J no information was available 01 which to base a 1953 estimat1• The estimate carried f or 1953 is the prewar average I 3 Rice 79 - see 3 under prewar reference • • - 42 - i - -9_- -- -r I I Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79i00935A000300020001-9 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T APPENDIX C SOURCES AND EVALUATION OF SOURCES 1 Evaluation of Sources The sources used in the preparation of this report represent all degrees of reliability Furthermore it is a rare Soviet source that gives precise current information on acreage yields or production of crops Starting from this base of varying reliability and questionable accuracy it has been neeessary for all analysts working on this project to weigh suspect information against that found in sources known to be reasonably reliable and against known agr i cultural and economic experience An evaluation of the source is given on all sources in the following list where it is thought to be of value ttention is called to sources numbered 16 20 22 23 31 36 and 37 which unlike others in the list do not refer to particular publieations but rather to funds of information that are available to those engaged in research Some of these data are in published form while others are worksheets or tabulations 2 Sources Evaluations following the classification entry and designated Eval have the following significance Source of Information Information Doc - Documentary - Completely reliable - Usually reliable C - Fairly reliable D Not usually reliable E Not reliable F - Cannot be judged 1 - Confirmed by other sources 2 - Probably true 3 - Possibly true 4 - Doubtful 5 - Probably false 6 - Cannot be judged A B - Documentary refers to original documents of foreign governments and organizationsj copies or translations of such documents by a staff officer or information extracted from such documents by a staff officer all of which may carry the field evaluation Documentary - 43 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 - Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79J00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-•T Evaluatio1s not otherwise designated ar those appear lng on the cited document those designated RR are b the author of this report No RR evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document I · 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 25X1A8a 9 TRUOG E and PRONIN D°7T - The Gre t Jeyth The Hussian Gra nary 11 Land Economics Aug 1953 P• 203 U Eval RR C-3 N Jasny The Socialized Agriculture of the USSR ip 118-122 U Ev-al RR B-2 CIA RR IM-379 Conditions in th1 1 23 Seo l J O 11 12 13 14 15 25X CIA RR PR 15 Weather Crop Yield Cor elations as Applied to Crop Yield Estimates for the Eur an USSR 2 May 1952 L Volin A Surve of Soviet Agr icult e USDA Monograph No 5 Aug 1951 p 109 U Eval -2 CIA RR IM-362 Preliminary Estimate o 1951 Grain Production in the USSR and the European Satelli es 30 Nov 1951 S USDA Foreign Agricultural Service est· t • U 18 Year 19 20 25X 1A8a2 L 22 23 2L 25 26 27 USDA U USDA F reign Agricultural Service es imates U State ucoG Bonn Despatch No 97 6 'Jul 1953 C Ibid Ibid Ibid - 44 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 S Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 2 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Ibid Ibid Army Report RB-326-52 29 May 1952 C USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates U State Bucharest Despatches No 307 30 Dec 1953 No 322 8 Jan 1954 No 339 21 Jan 1954 Ibid ii'uiigarian Trade Review May 1953 p 34 Eval C-3 State Warsaw Despatch No 119 19 Sep 1952 S CIA ORR Worksheets Gn NIE-108 15 Mar 1954 S USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estirrates U State Bucharest Annex 1 to American Legation Press Review No 903 Posevnye Ploshchad SSSR Dinamiki Za 1928 1932-38 GGV Sopostavlenii Sl913 G Statistiche£kii Spravochnik Moscow and Leningrad 1939 Statistia Ruminia Bucharest Statystyka Rolnicza 1938 Warsaw 1939 Zpravy Statniho Uradu Statistickeho Republiky Ceskoslovenske Rad f Zemedelstvi Praha 1933-38 International Institute of Agriculture International Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics 1938-39 Rome 1939 Statistik des Deutschen Reich Band 536 Herausgegebe Statistisches Reichsamt Berlin 1939 Suomen Tilaslollinen Virosikerya 193e Helsinki 193d Agriculture and Forestry Statistical Abstracts 1935-36 1936-37 Japan Urozhay Annual Publications of the Central Statistical Committee Ministry of the Interior St Petersburg 1883-1915 N Jasny · Soviet Grain Crops and Their Distribution International Affairs Vol XXVIII No 4 p 455 Oct 19527°Volin · cit State American Consulate General Hong Kong Despatch No 1030 1 Dec 1953 U Eval RR 2 Ibid State American Consulate General Hong Kong Despatch No 698 8 Oct 1952 U Eva 1 RR 2 Ibid State American Consulate General Hong Kong Despatch No 1658 24 Feb 1953 U USDA Foreign Agriculture Circular 24 Oct 1949 p 2 U Eval RR 2 - 45 - §_- -Q- - -' 1 Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000300020001-9 · _ · Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 S-E-C-R-E-T 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 State Hong Kong Despatch No 1658 Japan Manchou kuo Yearbook 1940 p Eval RR 2 State Hong Kong Despatch No 1658 • cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 1658 • cit USDA Foreign Agriculture Circular 2 Oct 1949 op cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 1658 Q e• cit -State American Consulate General H ng Kong Despatch No 1014 30 Nov 1953 U USDA Foreign Agriculture Circular 8 p Lf U Eval RR 2 State Hong Kong Despatch No 1030 • cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 6913 o ctt Ibid state Hong Kong Despatch No 16 158 qp cit I- Ibid Ibid 66 Ibid 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 25X1A8a 76 7'7 78 79 State American Consulate General H g Kong Despatch No 1494 21 Jar 1952 U Eval RR 2 I State Hong Kong Despatch No 1014 cit USDA Fc reign Agriculture Circular 8 ug 1949 2 £• cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 1030 01 • cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 69B cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 1030 - • cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 69B £El· cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 16 8 • cit State Despatch No 3133 29 May 19531• C Eval RR 2 State Hong Kong Despatch No 16 i8 a' • cit USDA Fcreign Agriculture Circular 2 Oct 1949 e £• State Hong Kong Despatch No 16 i8 op cit USDA Fcreign Agriculture Circular 2IiToct 1949 op cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 1494 t• cit State Hong Kong Despatch No 1014 o cit USDA Ftreign Agriculture Circular ug7 §l 9 op cit I Il - 46 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999 09 21 CIA-RDP79 00935A000300020001-9 -