f £CCL JB £N i 1AL • _' ' Approved For Release 2002 08 12 CIA-RDP79R00890A001100110006-7 NBC BRIEFING 30 November 1959 COMMUNIST BLOC 1959 HARVEST I It is now fairly certain that the USSR has suffered a poor grain harvest1his year -largely as result of drought A We believe that the harvest will fall between 92 and 105 million tons--a decline of some 25 to 35 percent below last year's claimed 140 million ton bumper harvest B our assessment of this year's Soviet harvest based on weather data and on statements by Soviet leaders this autumn progressively backing into indirect admission of mediocre harvest 1 Use of weather dat a -originally provided by Air Weather Service for military needs of SAC--is new technique which actually enabled us to make tentative prediction of a grain crop decline as early as June 2 Last Soviet official statement was at 7 November celebration by Presidium member Aristov who claimed only that more grain was harvested this year than in the good 5X1 • harvest years before reclamation of the virgin soil areas a Aristov's statement leads to our estimated floor of 92 million tons achieved in 1952 the best year before Khrushchev's New Lands era and to our estimated ceiling of 105 million tons achieved in 1957 the worst year of the Khrushchev program b Pravda article on 13 November claimed that this year'e harvest would exceed the 1954 -58 average 113 million tons but this is inconsistent with our other indica- Approved For Reituwa ioo2 08 12 CIA-RDP79R00890A001100110006-7 _ _ - ---- -- --- GQS'EJ£ Bffj JAL JI' # II Approved For Release 2002 08 12 CIA-RDP79R00890A001100110006-7 This year's poor harvest will provide sufficient grain for basic domestic requirements but it will limit the Soviet Un ion's ability to export grain and it will cut further into the too ambitious livestock program A Affect on livestock to be felt next year B Other field crops except cotton which is irrigated also affected III We expect soon to firm up our estimates of Chinese Communist 1959 crop yields We can already tell however that despite Chinese claims of 275 million tons for this year Chinese yields will be no better than last year's estimated 220 million tons A China's 1958 harvest was relatively good but communes caused breakdown of distribution with resultant local hardships 1 Distribution receiving much Peiping attention but not yet solved IV 1959 European Satellite grain harvest will be slightly above that of 1958 an average year but late s ummer drought in Poland and East Germany has resulted in decline in availability of meat and dairy products A This meat and dairy shortage at the root of much recent popular dissatistaction in Poland and East Germany -2Approved For Release 2002 08 12 CIA-RDP79R00890A001100110006-7