l' I J VLIJC'' uu1 I tu u 1 10 11 11 • - 1 lvCILIVI I ll I r Cl l L V I L I 1 L LU t vv- _ - -- - _ - A'i rA« tt i u ublication s Dealing With Soviet Grai Production and Grain Imoorts Title and Content Publication Number · ·and Date IM 71-161 27 Sept 71 The Soviet _Grai Supply 1971 ' ' Even with a near record grain crop of 140-145 million tons in 1971 the Soviet Union will be hard pressed in fiscal year FY 1972 to meet domestic needs and at the same time to continue supplying its client states at the level averaged in recent years The surge in use of grain as livestock feed in the past year e is expected to continue More importantly wheat reserves suitable for consumption as food are believed to be currently near minimum levels ••• i t appears likely that the USSR is in a shaky position The USSR has-already contracted for up ta 4 million tons of wheat imports for FY 1972 from Free World suppliers 11 CIWR 17 Sept 71 1 USSR Good Harvest but Grain Problems Despi-t e indications that the quantity of grain harvested thi year may fRll just short of the previous record insufficient re erves of breadgrains may increase Soviet requirements for grain i mports This situation arises because of a sharp increase in the use of wheat as 1 ivestock feed a higher level of dependence of East European and other client states on Soviet grain and physical deterioriation of ·some·grain reserves • 11 CIWR 29 Oct 71 Viet Economy Dances to Agriculture's Tune nunusually good ' eather during the recent harvest period Luproved the prospects for this year's grain·crop Nevertheless the Soviets are still in the market for Western grain By September they had contracted for about 4 million tons of·Canadian and Austrialian wheat 11 worth about $305 million 11 • · - PublTcat ons re'ceived by-the US Department of Agriculture u 25 x·i ' l'IIU VUJt IJllUII LV Ut IJld 1111 dllVII Ill l 'dll LU ILi IL LU LUL -nAt - j -0-L I-L - I - ·--- ·-- ------ l riefing of Secretarv o ommerce Stanis on the soviet Economy Reports Soviet grain purchases and predicts ·that grain and meat imports will be at least $600 million between· 1 July 71 and the of S 3916 lO Nov 71 1972 Ariculture Slows Economic Growth After a bumper year in 1970 because of unusuqlly good weather agripultural output last year declined by about 1 5 percent ••• the soviets are buying grain and sugar in non-Communist · markets to-cover domestic requirements and export· c-ommi tJnents · · · CIWR 28 Jan 72 25X1 CIB Brief 22 Feb 72 USSR Party and government leaders of the 15 republics met late last week in Moscow with Brezhn v to • • • 'I as5t SS L i tt uc 11110 yt Lu w 1 uLt r yL··a J nt t aused oy tnt CIWR · severe cold ••• If the winterkill is as extensive as in 1969 the net loss could amount to about four percent_ of the planned grain crop or seven million tons--almost as much ·as the USSR planned to import this year COld Hits Soviet East Eurooean Crops 25 Feb 72- Severe cold and scanty snowcover threaten winter crops in the Soviet Onion and Eastern Europe ••• the net loss could amount to about four percent of the planned grain crop or seven million tons -- almost as much as the USSR has arranged to import this fiscal year Last week Soviet foreign_ trade bank officials admitted that further imports may be ne9essary S-4228- Soviet Indebtedness and ·the Role of US-Soviet Trade Soviet indebtedness to the West mainly longterm has grown rapidly in recent years and apparently exceeded $2 billion by the end of 1971 Previous estimates of us-soviet trade growth following the dismantling of trade 14 Mar 72 ·• -2- SECREr 25X1 ' '--•' ' '' - -· ' 25X1 barriers put the level of US exports to the USSR at $400-500 million by 1975 and about $1 billion by 1980 If a new USDA estimate of Soviet requirements for $1 95 billion in US· agricultural products ovei the period FY 72 73 to FY 76 77 is correct however the level• C'f US exports by l 975 might reach $800 million f¢ • ___ - j 9 Soviet Agric lture in 1971 a11_d the OutlQok fo IM 72-48 15 Mar 72 1972 Even though farm production in l971 was near the record 1970 level the Soviet Union spent roughly $650 million-$700 million in hard currency to purchase large quantities of grain sugar and meat in 1971 Z nd early 1972 Imports of grain are likely to·continue and mqy even increase next year because·they are required to support the growth of the Soviet livestock economy so as to provide more meat and milk to the increasingly demanding Soviet consumer 1 -CIIi Note··-- USSR Heayy Damage to Winter Grain Cro s 16 Mar 72 Recent Soviet press reports indicate that unfavorable wav thcr during thA first two months of the year killed about one third of the winter grains sown in the Ukraine and Belorussia S-4249 28 Mar 72 So viet T m port of Cru n and Soybean Meal 0 ID 1bsti tu± g o m12 1 ements tor Q t h e r Fe ed5 in Livestock Rations U_SSR short of all types of feeds but II s·hortage of concentrate feeds is most acute Concludesi that on basis of cost-efficiency USSR has clear incentive to·use moYe corn and soybeans and that interim purchases of US corn and soybean meal would be a quick fix approach to the Soviet feed problem f necessary financial arrangements can be made 11 S-4253 Prospects for Soviet Trade with the West 28 Mar 72 and thG United States During most of thel as·t--Ewo decades the USSR ' has been a net import r of agricultural productsQ While the domestic supply situation is tight for many agricultural products prospects for and speculation about large new purchases center on those commodities for which the Savi ct Union paid $650-$700 million in hard currency in 1971 and early 1972 -- grain sugar and meat Due· to adverse winter weather the outlook for 25X1 ' '· - -- -----· _ - - ·-· '_ _ _ ' ' _ --· - _ ' I -v - - - r _ the USSR I s grain crop in 972 is· uncertain ' owever in view of the USSR's grain requirementsboth foreign and domestic -- even if an average grain crop is obtained it is almost certain that the Soviet Uni an will purchase more grain in FY 72 3 than the 3 5 million tons already contracted for 11 S-426 5 3 April 72 Briefin2 of Secretarv of Aqriculture Earl Butz Soviet consumer programs are concentrating on the Soviet diet The Soviet decision to import $700 million of grains meat and sugar between last July and the end of 1972 shows that they are indeed in a hurry to alleviate the existing hortages '' IM 72-65 28 Apr 72 • The Current State of the Soviet c2_nomy· 11 The fragility of the USSR' s grain and' livestock economy has been expos·ed once again Even with average weather the USSR will probably buy more grain in 1972 • If the weather this spring and summer turns out to be worse than norr -1al the possibility of large additional Soviet imports of foreign grain would of course be even greater ••• A large share of the imports would have to come from the us 11 s JI • • - I ___ _ • CIB Note USSR 17 May 72 Soviet trade officials have indicated a willingness to accept US Comrnodi ty Credit Corporation terms in purchasing US grain but only for a one- o two-year conm1itment •• Under the short-term- pom 'ili tment_ ·however annual purchases could reach $500 million about twice that suggested in earlier talks Soviet Developments ' 6 'Jul 72 Soviets Assess 197 Graiicroo· 11 During a public lecture in Leningrad a Soviet economist admitted that one third of the 197172 winter wheat crop had been destroyed by the severe weather • current estimates·are for a grain crop of'not less than 175 million tons' our agricultural attaches estimate that Soviet production will be 171 million tons CIB Brief 19 Jul 72 USSR Moscow reportedly has purchased for delivery during the next 12 months 1 5 million metric tons of Canadian wheat and 300-400 000 of barley ••• Unconfirmed reports state that fonr million tons of wheat and five million tons of corn worth $500 million have already been bought 25X1 ·- ··- J • - -···---·-·· • • -··--- ·- -- • L JA I under the us pact for delivery by mid-1973 • During the next 12 months the USSR should become h large net importer of grains for the first time since the disastrous harvests of 1963 and 1965 Imports may total 15 million tons 11 24 Jul 72 · USSR Economy at Mid Year Reportedly 122 3 million hect_ares of grainwere lef°t from the fall and spring sowing implying that 11 5 million hectares or onethird of the total planted in winter grains had been used_for forage Dr lost to winterkill CIWR USSR Economv · at Mid-Year Soviet economic growth sagged during the first Soviet Devel- opments 28 Jul -72 half of 1972 although industry was still on the 1971-75 plan schedule ••• As in 1969 agricultural problems threaten the _achievement of five-year plan goals ••• Figures in the mid year report on sown area imply that one third of the winter bread-grain acreage had been lost to winterkill or used for spring forage ••• Brezhnev's livestock program requires a grain harvest substantially higher than in 1971 Soviet Devel9pments 9 Aug 72 VIP Meeting Reflects Concern for· Harves r•An array of VIPs attended a meeting in the Central Committee headquarters oµ 8 AuyubL Lo discuss· harvest progress and other agricultural problems indicating unusual concern over this year's harvest It is estimated to be about 9-10 percent less than 1970 and 197li largely because of severe winter weather and summer drought ••·• As a- res·u1 t • the USSR is buying l_arge amounts of foreign grain mainly wheat for· delivery during the n·ext year ___ · C IB Brief 10 Aug 72 USSR Same as above Some Imolications of the Poor soviet Grain · · Harvest ·Memorandum for Kissinger Peterson and Butz A poor harvest this year estimated to be about 10% less than in 1970 and 1971 is forcing the Soviets to import record quantities of grain So far they have boug t about 21 6 million tons of grain and soybe ns worth almost $1 4 billion from the US Canada and France for delivery in FY 1973 S-4530 ll Aug 72 ' L - --- · - - 5· -c·n·r -r· 25X1 •• · • • • - - - - - • • - • • •- - - - •--••- • -- ·soviet Developments 11 Aug 72 IM 72-124 15 Aug 72 - - - - •_ -' ' '- ' v _- r - Grain Purchases Confronting poor harvest prospects the 'soviets have contr_acted •to purchase by mid 1973 about 21 6 million tons of grain and soybeans worth almost $1 4 billion from the us Canada and France As a result their hard currency trade deficit will rise to more than $800 million in both 1972 and 1973 Outlook for the 1972-Soviet Grain Harvest Because of a combination of winterJtill and drought the preliminary estimate of 1·972 Soviet grain prop·ects is for a decline in the crop to about 135 million metric tons of usable grain 13 million tons less than the l971 harvest To stave off the consequences of this shortfall the USSR has already bough·t more than 20 mil ion tons of grain•fr9rn the West for delivery in fiscal year FY · 1973 up ·1 2 million tons over imports ·of th previous year • The Grain Drain The prospect of a poor harvest this year more -than 10% ·below 1970 and 1971 is forcing the ·soviets to import record quantities of grain So far they have bought about 20 6 million tons of grain worth almost $1 3 billion ••• cind they are negotiating to buy more CIWR 18 Aug 72 USSR Soviet Developments 25 Aug 72 · Brezhnev Travels to Wheat Belt General Secretary Brezhnev arrived in the Kazakh grain-growing center of Kokchetav on Thursday ·presumably to urge farm officials to exert maximum effort in the harvest now underway 11 The situation is precarious · - ·- ·- because of a late-ripening crop and the danger · of frost Soviet Devel-· oprnents 28 Aug 72 · s·ov i et Cam-oaign to Save Grain · For the third time in a decade Soviet lcac1ers are asking consumers to 'save bread ' The campaign began in early August in the Ukraine -- one of the areas most severely affected by this year's poor arvest ••• Aithough the large foreign purchaser of grain this year will partiall offset domestic losses somet additional t 'leasures such as rationing and lowering the quality a bread that were taken in 1963 may have to be employed again 25X1 · SEC c I CIB Brief 29 Aug 72 CIB Brief · 29 Aug 72 Soviet Developments 31 Aug '72 CIWR 1 Sept 72 ·• USSR i Same as Soviet D evelopments ' ar·ticle of 25 Augu$t USSB ·c 11 1n an unusual display of concern over the harvest prospects Party General Secretary Brezhnev has flown out to the key Virgin Lands grain-growing area for conferences with local farm officials 11 Adverse weather has already damaged the crops in the other major grain growing areas and the situation in the Virgin Lands is precarious because the crop is late in ripening and is in serious danger of being hit by early frosts ore Ne sv 1i frQm the Ea on E ron t Continuing his unusual tour of the V rgin Lands grain-growing area Brezhnev addressed a meeting of party and ·economic executives in Novosibirsk on 31 Aug once again focusing on this year's harvest Cl - JSSR Worrying About the Harvest Brezhnev flew to the Virgin Lands for a round of conferences with local farm officials The Virgin Lands have produced an above-average stand ot wheat L it i in s rious danqer of being hit by early frosts Harvesting is hampered by cool and rainy weather Soviet Developments 5 Sept 72 More Soviet Grain Purchases in Pr os-oect 11 The president of a large international grain _trading firm Cook Industries is in Moscow at the invitation of the Soviets to discuss additional grain and soybeans purchases •• The Soviets invited Cook to return to Moscow in _November saying that their agricultural plan for 1973 would then be firm $ Total Soviet purchases of grain and soybeans for delivery by mid-1973 already top 25 million tons mainiy from the Soviet Developments 6 Sept 72 us · §9vj_et Financing of Hard Cqrrency N9eds Thc enormous additional requirements f o hqrd· currency cash associated with recent Soviet gra purchas s have evidently led the USSR to seek· selective foreign loans 11 ' ti l ' - - · • • -• '' ''-t • Some AsEects of Recent Soviet Grain Purchases IM 72-135 6 Sept 72 i' 11 This y'ear· 1 s poor harv st a result of severe winter weather and summer drought is forcing the Soviets to impo rt record quantities of gra in So far they have bought about 25 2 million metric tons of grain and soybeans worth almost US· $1 6 billion mainly from the US for delivery in fiscal year 1973 •• The massive grain imports ••• also reflect a recent change in agricultural · and consumer policy Brezhnev's livestock program aimed at improving the Soviet diet has required large increases in grain supply which have exceeded Soviet grain production even in good yea i s 11 The View from the Kremlin Three Months After s-4575 7 Sept 72 the Summit Because of the poor weather that has plagued the Soviet grain areas this year the 1972 crop will fall far short of covering both domestic req'l irements and export commitments • • As a result US exports of grain and soybeans should reach $650-700 million in 1972 ••• Moreover the delayed 'ripening of grain in the crucial New Land area of Siberia and Kazkhstan could cause above-normal harvest losses during the coming weeks and could generate a need for further iinports 11 CIWR 15 Sept 72 t' Soviet Developments 19 Sept 72 c- 11 eport on the Soviet Ha Grain yields reported by the USSR for areas where the harvest has been completed confirm that poor weather severely damaged the crop in the major grain-growing areas of European Russia •• that will only he partially offset by a good harvest in the New Lands The un·certainty surrounding the final verdict on the· Soviet harvest' apparently has temporarily halted negotiations fo additional grain imports • Soviet purchases of grain for delivery by mid-1973 aiready top 27 million tons 11 · Leningrad's·Questions Concerning the Harvest ' 1'A- - Leningrad lecturer said that some Wes tern reports put the harvest this year at 20 per cent bc lo·w last year's It is known he said that the USSR has bought 7-12 million tons of grain from the us 5 million from Ca nada 1-1 5· million from France and some from Australia and Sweden 25X1 ' _ _ v j l'f VUJCVUUI I lU UC' 10 ll l OLIVI I II I ·- Soviet Devel- ' - opments 25 Sept 72 CIB Brief 27 Sept 72 CU l L V I L I I -I L V L '-JV'-1 1r 1 -v 1 - -'- - ' - Romanian Wheat Too • Various sources in Moscow and Bucharest report 'that the Romanians have agreed to supply the Soviets with as much as 500 000 tons of wheat from the successful harvest this year 11 USSR Slow progress in grain harvesting threatens additional losses ••• If this slow pace is maintaine• the harvest will extend well into October· · when conditions usually deteriorate ••• Thus harvest prospects have deteriorated further since the last major round of Soviet grain purchases in early Augqst Racent reports of negotiations for wheat from West Germany and Romania could reflect a reassessment of the country's immediate rieeds for milling quality wheat Confirmed· Soviet purchases of grai for delivery by mid1973 now stand at almost 27 million tons ••• 11 Soviet Devel-· 'opments 28 Sept 72 Comment on NY Times Article on Soviet Wheat Harvest The New York Times today reports that USDA estimates that the wheat harvest in 1972 will be 75 million tons 25 percent below last year ••• primarily a result of winterkill and summer · drought •• The USDA estimate is virtually the sc1 e as the CrA PR imHte -- 76 million·tons ••• soviet · wheat purchases of 18 million ton for delivery by mid-1973 cover most of this year's loisses and will go far to ensure an adequate supply of milling quality wheat Soviet Devel·opmehts 28 Sept 72 arced Slaughtering of Herqs Reported Deputy Minister of RSFSR' s Meat and Dairy CIWR · 29 Sept 72 C • r Industry says the drought in the RSFSR is the most severe since the 1930s He adds that even some of basic cow herds are being ·butchered Soviet Outlook Gets Dimmer Since the last major round of Soviet grain purchases in early August harvest prospects have gone on deteriorating we now estimate that the 1972 crop of usable grain will be roughly 128 million tons -- down 20 million tons for 1971 Total confirmed purchases of grain stand at about 27 million tons worth over $1 6 billion and there are recent r·eports of negotiations for more wheat from West Germany and Romania 25X1 _l'IV VUJl l UVII lV LJl l ICl t tllll ClllVII IJI c lll • S-4627 29 Sept 72 ··- ---- I •• • - • u u LUv-nJ- l - -0-LI-L i - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - J Soviet Grain -- Purchases anrl Pros ects Since the last ajar round of Sovi t grain purchases in early August barv st prospects have de teriorated even further because of poor weather The 1972 crop·of usable grain is now estimated a roughly 128 illion tons -more than 10 percent below 1971 output _ Recent reports of negotiations for more grain from West Germany and Romania may reflect a reassessment of the country's immediate needs Confirmed purchases now total more than 26 million tons worth $1 y billion CIWR 13 Oct 72 Soviet Harvest Problems Persist The grain harvest is ·still behind schedule • Deteriorating weather conditions jeopardize its completion ••• They the Sqviet now say this year s grain crop will ·be no more than 16_0-167 million tons compared with ·the 181 million tons harvested in 1971 We estimate that gross grain production will be 16 million-tons • f re gn grain purchases· stand at about 28 million tons for delivery by mid-1973 ••• CIB Brief USSR 18 Oct 72 There is a near record lag in completing the grain harvest -- ten percent of 11 0r n had not been threshed as of 9 October 11 ill 25X1