• Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010 08 23 CIA-RDP85T00287R001200160001-3 19 MAY 1984 MEMORANDUM FOR FROM See Distribution List 25X1 -------' Chief Strategic Resources Division Office of Global Issues SUBJECT Soviet Crop Conditions I--- 25X1 1 The attached memorandum assesses the condition of the Soviet grain crop and the impact of recent weather events Additional memoranda will be issued throughout the late spring and summer should changes in weather significantly alter our assessment of crop conditions 2 This assessment was produced by - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1the Agricultural Assessments _ __ '----- a r a n c h ------- S t r a- ----t e g-1 c------ R e s o u r c e s D 1 v 1 s 1_ jon Office of Global Issues 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 I-- 3 Comments and questions are welcome and may be addressed to the Chief Agricultural Assessments Branch I 25X1 25X1 Attachment USSR 1984 Grain Cro in Trouble GI M 84-10097 May 1984 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 • Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010 08 23 CIA-RDP85T00287R001200160001-3 SUBJECT Soviet Crop Conditions --- OGI SRD AAB L _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _____J 29 May 84 25X1 25X1 Distribution 1' - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ J 1 - Ken Froot CEA 1 - Geza Feketekuty US Special Trade Represenative 25X6 1 - John Lenczowski NSC 1 - David Wigg CEA 1 - Elmer Klumpp Agriculture 1 - David Schoonover Agriculture 1 - Keith Severin Agriculture 1 - Terry Barr Agriculture 1 - Charles Hanrahan Agriculture 1 - Anton Malish Agriculture 1 - Byron Jackson Commerce 1 - Andrew Marshall Defense 1 - Alexander Vershbow State 1 - Kenneth Yalowltz State 1 - John Danylyk State 1 - Douglas Mulholland Treasury 1 - SA DDCI 1 - Executive Assistant 1 - DDI 1 - DDI PES 1 - NIO USSR-EE 1 - NIO Econ 1 - CPAS ISS 1 - DD OGI D OGI 1 - C SRD 5 - C SRD AAB 1 - OGI EXS PG C 8 - OGI EXS PG 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010 08 23 CIA-RDP85T00287R001200160001-3 Central lntdligena Agency -- -····· - ' Washlrstoo D C 2050S DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE 19 MAY 1984 USSR 1984 Grain Crop in Trouble summary Drought in the Volga Valley and parts of the Central Central Black Earth North Caucasus regions and Volga Vyatka has eliminated Moscow's chances this year for a near-record grain crop However meteorologic conditions are now showing signs of change We believe that the weather will improve during the next two weeks particularly in the drought area and halt further crop losses in that region There is still time fo the crop to recover somewhat and production could go as high as 200 million tons--5 million tons more than last year's estimated output--if ideal conditions prevail for the remainder of the crop season - --_- 25X 1- -----· ----------·--7 -- This_memorandum was prepared byi Agricultural Assessments-Bra-ncn - -sYra teg 1c·- ·--- Resources Divisgn __ Off ice of Global Issues Comments may be directed t_ I Chief Strategic Resources Division on l _______ J 1 GI M 84-10097 I 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010 08 23 CIA-RDP85T00287R001200160001-3 USSR 1984 Grain Crop in Trouble Following a good start the outlook for the 1984 Soviet grain crop has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks because of adverse weather in a key portion of the grain region More importantly unless conditions turn ar9unc _ _s 9Jn Moscow may well be faced with a major crop shortfall ' 25X1 Grain Crop Developments to Date Winter Grains Our analysis of crop conditions to date indicates that a winter grain harvest of some 60 million tons is likely if normal weather conditions return soon and persist Although far short of the record 86-million-ton harvest in 1978 a crop of this size would be slightly above the estimated annual output of 55 million tons averaged during 1979-83 Total sown area--estimated to be 34 5 million hectares--is up two million hectares from a year ago and we believe that the generally mild winter kept winterkill below average 25X1 Potential winter grain yields have been cut by two bouts of poor weather Abnormally dry conditions persisted from midJanuary to mid-April in parts of the eastern Ukraine the North Caucasus the southern Volga Valley and the Central Black Earth region The US Department of Agriculture Attache observed dust storms and poor-to-fair stands of winter grains during a trip through the region in April confirming our meteorological data Late March LANDSAT imagery of central Krasnodar Kray also showed that winter grains emerged from dormancy in poor condition LANDSAT imagery of 4-10 May and meteorologic data indicate that periodic showers in this area since late April have provided temporary relief but timely rains will be __needed in the coming weeks to prevent any further damage I_____ I I 25X1 ·-- --1 I More serious problems have stemmed from a quasi-stationary high pressure system that has been centered over the Volga Valley since the beginning of May The system was beginning to show signs of weakening when rainshowers occurred throughout the region on 27 28 and 29 May The hot dry weather associated with this system has caused moderate to severe crop stress over the entire valley as well as parts of the Central the Central Black Earth the north Caucasus and the Volga Vyatka regions Reconnaissance satellite imagery shows numerous grass fires--an indication of critically low soil moisture--and poor stands of winter grains The total area affected by the poor weather typically produces nearly one-third of annual Soviet winter grain output Crops outside the problem area particularly those in the Ukraine have received adequate precipitation and in general are developing well Although soil moisture levels in these regions are below the September - April averages for the 1979 - 83 period they compare favorably with 1983 Table 1 _ __ 25X1 --- - GI M 84-10097 ---·---- --------- 25X1 -·-1 - ·---- 5X1 ·---- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010 08 23 CIA-RDP85T00287R001200160001-3 Spring Grains Despite a good start for the second consecutive year prospects for the spring grain crop--sown in April and May and harvested in late summer and fall-- b y _alsg been_ eopardi zed__EY Jle __ -_ecent dovmturn l l weather I _________ -- -7 germination in the affected area was delayed--atleast- one weeKJ because of dry soils Plant emergence was unev n as_weJ_J__ _ About one-£ ifth of the spring crop is now at risk i i L___------ ---- -- -------- - l_ ------ - -- 25X1 25X1 25X1 _l The outlook would be even worse except that the annual spring sowing campaign is progressing well and early crop development outside the problem area as viewed on satellite imagery is good By the middle of May planting was running slightly ahead of the average pace of the past five years Grain sown early often flowers before the summer's hottest weather when unusually hot dry conditions can lead to plant sterility and reduced yields Flowering is the stage of crop development when maximum potential yields are determined Early planting also reduces plant vulnerability to frost damage in the fall i-- 25X1 L_ _ ---- j A Preliminary Outlook for Grain Production and Other Crops With about a quarter of the spring grain crop still to be planted it will be two to three months before a sound estimate of 1984 Soviet grain production can be made Potential grain yields can be affected at almost any time during the crop season o In May and early June during the completion of planting o In June and July when winter and spring grains reach the critical flowering stage of development 0 In August and September as the bulk of grain crop is harvested I I I- - 25X1 J Moscow's grain target of 240 million tons is already well beyond reach however The principal limiting factors are acreage and the crop damage already sustained In 1978 when the USSR produced a record 237 million tons of grain yields per hectare reached a level still unmatched and the area harvested was second in size only to the 1977 record This year plans call for grain to be sown on 123 miliion hectares three million hectares below the average of recent years and 5 5 million less -- - I 3 -- j 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010 08 23 CIA-RDP85T00287R001200160001-3 than were harvested in 1978 2 Moreover we estimate that this year's harvested area of winter grains is likely to be at least one million hectares smaller than in 1978 Winter grains usually yield about 50 percent more per hectare than spring_g_ rains and account for about one-third of total grain output -- -1 L - - _____ _J Even though planned grain production will not be achieved in 1984 a harvest approaching 200 million tons--5 million more than last year's estimated output--is possi le if ideal growing conditions prevail through the summer Indeed prospects for about three-fourths of the grain crop are generally good at this point in time Furthermore we believe that the weather will improve during the next two weeks particularly in the drought area and halt further crop losses in that region On the other hand should the weather deteriorate markedly as it often does in the important spring grain areas of the Volga Valley and Kazakhstan ou put would fall well below the 200 million ton mark L_____ J 2 This year's plan reflects a continuing Soviet effort to expand the amount of arable land put into fallow Although fallowing sacrifices production in the year in which the land is idled it usually results in higher more stable output in subsequent years as long as the fallowed acreage is maintained in the crop rotation schedule 3 The us Department of Agriculture's initial forecast of the 1984 Soviet grain crop is 190 million tons This estimate is based partially on trend analysis and assumes that normal weather will prevail It carries a variation of 20 million tons a range that is expected to encompass the harvest 2 out of 3 times L _______ J ____ j 25X1 25X 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X Table 1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010 08 23 CIA-RDP85T00287R001 00160001-3 USSR Grain Regions - Total Precipitation September - April Region Precipitation mm 1982-83 83-84 Salties Belorussia Western Ukraine North Central Ukraine Northeast Ukraine East Ukraine South Ukraine Moldavia Krasnodar Northeast Caucasus Western Black Earth Eastern Black Earth Central 413 401 280 295 294 194 175 170 307 177 282 168 295 372 277 256 308 329 329 281 271 441 261 237 168 266 Region Precipitation mm 1982-83 83-84 Volga-Vyatka Upper Volga Middle Volga Lower Volga Northwest Urals southern Urals Northeast Urals Western Kazakhstan Kustanay Tselinograd North Kazakhstan Pavlodar West Siberia Altay 244 214 109 171 197 173 156 140 98 165 143 124 226 206 275 158 146 216 272 253 235 158 120 141 155 139 274 206 25X1