Date

Feb 26, 1930

Description

This contractor report deeply informed the thinking of AEC officials. Its chief conclusion was that "in general, it would not be too difficult to build a relatively small clandestine gas centrifuge plant capable of producing sufficient enriched uranium for a small number of nuclear weapons." Industrial countries would have less trouble building and hiding such facilities but, according to Union Carbide, even a nation with "relatively limited industrial activity" could use this technology to produce a nuclear weapon in 8 years.

The Union Carbide study suggested that building a clandestine gas centrifuge plant was a difficult task but that a determined country could do it. What would make the technology attractive to a would-be proliferant was that the centrifuges could be relatively small (less than a foot in diameter) and mounted vertically, which meant they needed little floor space. A building of "modest dimensions" could contain a small centrifuge plant and it would be "difficult to detect, especially in an industrial country." Moreover, compared to the expensive gaseous diffusion enrichment process, the centrifuge method was relatively cheap---four megawatts would be required for the annual operation of a small plant compared with hundreds, perhaps thousands, of megawatts for a gaseous diffusion plant.

To gauge the proliferation risk, Union Carbide looked at countries at three stages of development. "Class X" highly industrial countries with up-to-date educational systems, such as Germany or Sweden, would need about 5 years to get to the point where they could produce HEU. Class Y" intermediate countries with "limited internal industrial activity," such as Israel or Brazil, would require about 6.5 years to reach the point where they could produce nuclear weapons with the help of gas centrifuges. "Class Z" non-industrial countries with low technological levels, such as Cuba or Egypt, would take about 8 years. They would, however, need the assistance of a "Class X" country and would have difficulty building a completely clandestine plant. "

Those countries that found a way to produce gas centrifuges for a nuclear weapons program would have to solve other technological problems. Producing HEU for a nuclear weapon would require the creation of a "cascade" of interconnected gas centrifuges and "there has been no indication that anyone has successfully run even two interconnected centrifuges." This, however, was a problem of "plant design and process control" that could be solved. Moreover, a high-speed centrifuge required "suitable material" capable of withstanding high velocities. A "class X" country could solve these and other problems within the stipulated eight years.

Source

Department of Energy MDR release

Document published in following posting(s):

Early Atomic Energy Commission Studies Show Concern over Gas Centrifuge Proliferation Risk

Jun 23, 2012

S.A. Levin, D. E. Hatch, and E. Von Halle, Production of Enriched Uranium for Nuclear Weapons by Nations X, Y, and Z by Means of the Gas Centrifuge Process, Operations Analysis Division, Union Carbide Nuclear Company, 26 February 1960, Secret, excised copy