____ __ ____ ------ -··· -' ' ____ __ ' -- atmATA sr '---· UNION CARBIDE NUCLEAR COMPANY DIVISION OF UNION CARBIDE CORF'ORATION POST OFFICE SOX P OAK RIDGE TENNESSEE I l ·• United States At9mic Energy CoI llllission Post Office Box E Oak idge Tennessee Attention Mr • S • R • Sapirie Manager Qak idge Operations Gentlemen Trans mittal of Centrifuge Study ' I - I r t '· · i The ac9ompanying report presents the results of a- tudy on the P roduction Qf_enriched uranium f'or nqclear weapons by nations X Y al d Z by means of the gas centrifuge process It contains the inf'9rJI1q tion requested in your letters of Feb_rtta ry 15 and 19 1960 We wish to stress that we claim no special qualifications for translating _U S • _requirements into the requirements of foreign nations The 11 mi tati on of time precluded a thorough' investigation 'of·the problem Nevertheless the eorX' elation which was developed in _the report appears reasonable ·• We shall be glad to provide any additional inf'ormation which you may're _ quire Very truly yours UNION CARBIDE NUCLEAR COMPANY I B Emlet MaDager of Prod ction cc t TSAEC A E Cameron 61 j P Murray_ 62 A M Weinberg C E • Center L· B Jmlet· G• A Ga rrett A _ P • H ber • - - lI When Se parated From Enclosures Handle This · ' ocilineiit as Uriclass i 'if ied -------------------'-----------'------------------- ---' ' - J' This ocument consists of -z-y pag a No s-9 of 2-eopies S r es 9 · JA1 S' Ol O Date of Is ue February 26 1960 Report Number KOA-662 RSOAGTEB eePY iiiiiiiiiiiii - l 'RODUCTION O F ENRICHED URANIUM FOR NUCL Wffi NS - ' iiiii BY N ATIO t'JS X_ Y AND z BY ME ANS OF T aE GAS CENTRIFUGE PROQE$S l l 'I - 1 0 m - o o S A Levin 0 D E Batch _ 0 0 -1 '1 0 N E Von Hall - _ iiiiiiii iiiiiiii Operations_An aJ ysis Div ision G A G rrett Supe intende t iiiiiiii N iiiiiiiiiiiii Dis_t ibutton 1 -50 5 1 _ 52 53 54 55 56 57 5 60 6l c c E ' A E Ca ron qe ter 0 J L B _ Eml et G• A Garrett A P • Ru be R G Jord a n D • M Lang s A Levin J P Murray 62 A M Wein e rg I en en _N ' 11 to ' 0 IT' er ru Ln n i J UNION CARBIDE NUCLEAR COMPANY UNION CARBIDE AND CARBON CORPORATION Oak Ridge Te essee --- -- '--- - - - - K0A-662· -2- PRODUCTION OF ENRICRED URANIUM FOR·NUC -WEAPONS BY NATIONS X Y AND Z BY MEANS OF TEE GAS CENTRIFUGE PROCESS Lt '- I r INTRODUCTION The nations of the Western Alliance have been engaged in a series Qf spora4ic negotiatioI S with tl e-Soviet bloc on the subject of nuclear disarmament spanning the last seve-ral yea rs In order to provide valuable background material for future disarmament conferences it was deemed desirable to conduct a study for the purpose of assessing the feasibility of prod ueing a small _ number of nuclea r weapons either overtly or covertly in a country currently not known to hav e a nuclear weapons program · Two app oa hes to the problem of producing nuclear weapons on a small scale have already been studied a the natural uranium reactor for the production of plutonium and b t e high_speed gas centrifuge process for the production of isoto pically enrich ed uranium It was concluded as a result of this study that the gas centrifuge plant was the shorter and probably the more economical path to a nuclear weapon It also became apparent that in general it would not be too difficult to build a relatively small clandestine gas centrifuge plant capable of' producing suff'icient-enriched uranium fqr a Sll all number of nucle weapons The gas centrifuge process le ds itself to clandesti e operation for the following reasons Most important is the fact that the powe r requirement foi the centrifuge plant under c9ns ideration is relatively small only about 3 megawatts are required for it s operation Secondly one can obtain a relativel y large separation in a single centrifuge thus tlle number of' centrifuges quired for th e plant particularly if' theyare of an advanced de-sign is less than the number of gaseous dif'fusion stages which would be required for this small production goal Sinee centrifuges are mounted vertically·and are less than o e foot in diameter ·they take little floor space and a small centrif'u e plant can be contained in a puilding of modest dimen ions Due to both of these properties of centrifuge plants such a plant would be difficult t o detect es pec-ially in an i J dustrial coUI try e results o f this ce c tri fuge tudy a re presented in Report KB-789 Small CE ntrii'uge PJ ant for Pr-oducing U-235 Weapons L B mJ et Union Carb i de uc1ea r·company Oak Ridge Tennessee December 14 1959 '-- ' - · -- KOA-661 3 In this report an attempt is made to correlate the probability of some country an nth pow r successfully prqducing a nuclear weapon by means of' a cla desti e program involv i ng the construction and operation qf a hidden gas centrifuge plant with the indmrl rial ca pability of that country For this purpose the countries of' int rest have been divided ihto tlµ'ee groups di f ligna ted by X Y and Grqup X c9untries are those which possess a relatively high degree of j eeh nological competence a d which 4a ve a high level of' iI¥iustrial activity · • 1 'fest Germany and -Sweden ar_ t untries_ which would come unde r_ - 1 -i§_ El f i _ ' ieation rGroup Z countries are those which possess relatively little techno logical skill a n d which h aye relatively litile industrial activity ' Egypt and Cuba two of' - Elie- countries in this category t Grou p ' countries are those _which li be tw n and which J iave limited inter qal industrial activity • Brazil and If rael a r-e both cnnsidered as grou p Y cotllltries z re The production facility which will be considered is one ca pable of producing 50 kilpgra ll1$ per year of highly enriched U-235 which should be a sufficient amount of' f'iss io oable material for the fabrication of at least one nuclear -weapon yea r T4e production facility 111ay-b considered as consisting of t separa e processes These a re per l The_feed plant in_which_i g e qre co q centrate_is converted to process gas • 2 The isotope $eparationplant itself in which th concentration ot U 235 is raised fiom _that of the feed 0 7I weight percent to that required for a nqcl r weapon 90 percent 3 The metal reduction plant in which the enriched UF 6 f'rom the · isoi o pe se parat i on plant is co erted to uranium m etal and then _machined to make finished metal parts for the n clear --weapon Two differe t isoto pe eparation plants re-considered Both are gas entrifuge plants One plant is assumed to utili ze centrifuges which e x periment l las shown should be operable witl i out the net essity of' further development work J Th se centrifuges are 3 meters in length and r tate with a peripheral velocity_of 300 meters per second • T4e other plant is assume_d to utili e centrif'uges -of a advanc Sd mec4anical design which are 1 1 meters in length_ and which rotate with a peripheral velocity Qf' 450 meters per second It is postulated that ce p trifuges -of this -tYJ e can be developed within three years The size s of' the fe1 Xl plant an d of the metal reduction plant are not affected by the type of centrifuge in use and are the ijame for both cases - I Estimates ar made of the total length of time n cessary to const ct a d place· in operation each of the two types· of centrifuge plants in those- countries categorized by·X Y and Z • Estimates qf va riations in manpower requirements all d -9v-er-all co E ts of buildin g a complete plant in the various coun tries are also presente·d Th special _problems which are peculiar to each class of countrie s are discussed s epara tely · 11 11111 II KOA-662 -4 ' SUMMARY It is felt t at it is feasibie that the countries described in th s report which do not now qa ve a nuclear weapons program could produce enriched uranium by means of a small gas centrifuge plant A class X country would need no outside assistance • A class Y country would probably have to impqrt some of the hardware necessary to fabricate the centrifuges and also some of the auxiliary equipment A class Z country would probably have to purchase prefabricated centrifuges and almost all of the at lXiliary equipment from foreign vendors In addition a class Z country would need technical advisors from the outside to aid in the construction and-operation of the centrif'u ge plant -- i A summary of the over-all time investment and work f9rce required for construction of the nuclear weapon facility and the cost a d manpower required for its operation is presented in Table I for the X Y and Z nations A detailed cost time and manpower breakdown of the nuclear weapon f' cility into its three separate processes - isotope separation plant feed plant and metals pla t - is presented in Tables II through IV based on U S experience Estimates are given both for centrif'uge plants containing 300 meter-per-second and 450 meter-per-second machines ·A correlation which is used to qbtain factors for converting u s reg_uirements•into requirements of other nations is presented in Figure 5 lt can 'be seen t ha t the time reg_-qired to produce the first atomic weapon in an X Y or Z nation is about 5 6 5 and 8 years respectively These times may be compared with 4 years in the case of the United States The construction of the 450 meter-per-second centrifuge plant how e'V'er can not be undertaken prior to 1963 since it has been assumed that this advanced design will not be developed bef'or e that da te · • The total capital investment which amounts to abo t $62 000 000 and the operating cost of about $7 000 000 per year f'or a 300 meter-per-s cond centrifuge plant in the case of a class Z country would be a burden on the economy of the country A class Z country would have to be highly motivated to undertake such a project However the lower construction cost of about $12 000 000 and operatin cost of $2 500 000 per year in the case-of' a 450 meter-per-second centrifuge plant for the class Z country woUld make the project more feasible ' In conv rting the u S requirements for _manpowe into requirements for class x Y and-Z nations the ma cyower onveraion factor waa applied to both techni- cal and total manpower Hqwever t4e proportio of technical Ii la npower to total manpower actu a lly-may very well be different especially for a class Z nation Tb e physical concealment of the ce trifuge plant should present no problems because of the relatively small size of the plant Th e ground rea of the 300 meter-per-second centrifuge plant is about one- Qal f a ere and t4e ground area of the 450 meter-per-second plant is about one-fourth acre While tl le centrifuge plant might be about th ree storieEi high for conventional construction this would -not be es pec•ially noticeable in indu1 1trial areas of X and Y nations The building he ght could be lowered by using a ·less convenient ----· - KOA-662 -5layout qi' the plant eq_uipment This may be desirable in the case of class Z countries in which a lar e three-story building could·not be easily camouflaged The feed and metal prqcessing are relatively small operations which could be performed within the centrifuge separation plant The power requirement for the plants is very small about 3 mega watts f'or the 300 meter-per second centrifuge plant and l megawatt for the 450 me·ter-persecond centrifuge plant The power could be ea ily supplied -either through conventional power lip es or i-f desired by diesel engine-gener1 1 to i - sets which would be self-containedb The effluents f'rom the plant could be t andled easily The waste stream from the plant over a period 9 f o Q e year which is essentia lly the same amoUitt as the f'ee d C U ld b e si ored in tb ree io-ton UF6 cylinders These -cylinders re 10 feet long and 4 feet in diameter a re of' stand ard ste l const ction • Thus they could be stored c o Q veniently anywhere within the p t The offgases from the feed aµd metal plants are ne-qtralized with caustic a nd easily disposed qf r- i r- -·--·· C T ABUJI G AS CEN l1RIFUGE P IM'T S Y fOR C I ASS x Y AND z NATJ ONS ··•· C I ass Z _Class Y Class X 300 -m sec · E'- m se · Capital I v est nt Dollars · Centrifuge plant 42 000 000 Feed plant Metals plant 900 000 l 300 000 1 300 000 ·240 00 Q 240 00 0 50 000 00 0 1 500 000 29 0_ 0 QQ 8 400_ ooo 60 000 000 1 800 000 340 000 1 500 000 290 090 · ' Total 43 540_ OQO 62 140_ ooo 13 04o ooo 8 5 40 0 0 Q • l 9 900 000 1 Bpo 000 340 000 • '• 'I•'•••• Peak Construction Work Force • • ·• · • t Total no • of men -Tecbnicai· · 66 400 -30 1 500 500 1 800 600 36 9 3 43 ·-- Con1 itrt 1ction Manpower Ma n-Mo ths 2 -000 6 qo o 42 0 00 10 000 65 000 15 000 0ve r-all Con$t r'Uction Time _ Yea rs 3 • 9 3 9 5 _4 5 4 7 2 7 2 5 900 000 3 00 000 115 000 1 900 000 300 000 115 1 000 6 200 000 320 000 120 000 2_ 000 000 320 000 -120 obo 6 400 000 330 000 125 ooo 2 1 00 000 330 000 125 000 6 315 000 2 315 000 · 6 64q oop 2 440 000 6 _855 000 2 555 000 Tech -Totl Te b • T0stl Te·ch • Totl Tech • Totl --- Te ' h Totl 1 300 78 OperatiD8 Cost Dollti rs_ Per Yea r Cen trifug lan t Feed plimt Metals plant Tot al ' operl ting Work Force '' 52 C D tri uge plant Feed plant 430 · 14 2 ·2 Metals p t ' ' ' - 56 Tqtal - 26 2 2 - - - - -6 450 3 0 -- 0- 4 • 9 'I ' ' •' ••'II ••' •' ' ' 62 1 4o -l4 6 l 6 0 500 -- · - -- • 3 7 73 600 20 3 8 3 ----- @ -524 -37 ·194 76 626 · 7 3 I I •• ' • • •• •' ' 3 170 17 31 17 6 4- I ' # ' • Tech Totl •' •• I - ' - '• 8 2 6 • 4 '•' • 37 -' 3 - 200 20 8 • 228 · - ' t· 8 2 ' 0 ·R ' 7 III 5511111 PLANT DESCRIPTIONS Estimates of t4e capital investment operating cost time schedule and manpower requirements for each of the processes of the production facility are presented in Tables II through v A In our previous study KB-789 in making the estimates for the gas centrifuge plant it was assumed that a prototype of the centrifuge was available similar to the one described as Presently Pro posed German in Report K-1368 This centrifuge is 300 cm in length 20 cm • in diameter and has a peripheral velocity of 300 meters per second The separative capacity of the centrifuge at an assumed 60 percent efficiency is 3 6 kilograms U per year This machine has been developed under the qirection of Pr Groth of the University of Bonn This machine is illustrated _in Figure 1 Gas Cent ifuge Plant •' Recently ·a new centrifuge design developed by Dr Zippe an Austrian at the University of Virginia has received considerable attention The work vas done under an C contract and is based on previous work which Dr Zippe performed while associated with the Russia Ii centrifuge project This ew high-speed subcritical centrifuge is relatively very simple in design and 'has to a great extent removed the problems associated with the·bearings and process gas hand ling At present this machi e has attained only an efficiency of approximately 20 to 30 percent For the purpose of this report it is assumed that development work would take place over a threeyear period which would result in $n improved Zippe type centrifuge operating at a higher efficiency and also at·a higher speed due to newly developed materials of construction The centrifuge would be 110 cm in length 20 cm in diameter and have a peripheral velocity of 450 meters per second Tb e separative capacity of the centrifuge at an assumed 6o percent efficiency is 7 2 kilograms·u per year ·Tb is machine is illustrated in Figure 2 Therefore in this report two centrifuge plants have been considered o e plant containing 300 meter-per-second centrifuge$ which could be started in a relatively short time and the other plant cbntaining 450 meter-perseco¢· centrifuge which could be started three Y ears ence • The centrifuge plant description e i ven _below is es entiallj the same as that previous ly presented for the 300 meter-p r-second cen ri f'uge plant in KB-789 Ip tl e case of the 450 meter-per-seco nd centrifuge plant based on the Zippe type cent rifuge some of the process control and auxi l il a ry ± tems may n9'j be necesi iary depending on future developments · D A Hayford and S A Levin competitive Economic-Status of' the Gas Ce qtri f'uge Union Carbide Nuclear Compa rzy Oak Ridge Tennessee December • 19 1957 K-1368 • 4 0 'GZIR111' - ROTATING SYSTEM 01 Upper hollow shaft 02 Rotor 03 Lower hollow shaft 04 Drawing off nozzle 05 Motor shaft 06 Armature 07_ Tachometer assembly and anchoring clamp UPPER GAS SEAL A Gas chamber B Trap chamber 10 Housing of the upper gas seal 12 Gas inlet 16 Evacuation conduit 18 Oil drain MOTOR M 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Motor chamber Motor base plate Upper bearing Stator assembly Cooling jacket of the stator Pressure chamber of the oil piston pivot bearing Packing of the o ii piston pivot bearing Lower cellar bearing Oil collecting main Upper damping bearing Detector choke of the oscillation measuring device SAFETY CASING Casing chamber Oi I catcher Safety casing Cooling coil Screwing ring Seal ring Protective lining Guard ring Gliding plane for anchoring clamp 38 Anchoring clamp for the connection of the lower gas seal with the safety casing 39 Oil collecting main D 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 LOWER GAS SEAL E Blocking chamber F Gas chamber 40 Lower lid of the safety casing 41 Connection for the gas trap 43 Evacuation conduit 45 Oil drain 47 Oil drain FOUNDATION 51 Apparatus support 52 Counter-nut of the lower gas seal 53 Concrete foundation i --- L----- --'- Figure 1 The Present ·German 300 Meter-Per-Second Gas Centrifuge KOA-662 -S- I I f --- KOA-662 -9G A Flexible steel needle B Upper bearing C Magnet mounting D Steel tube E Feed tube F Gas withdrawal scoop · E G Gas withdrawal scoop 0 H Baffle G K Molecular pump L Molecular pump M Electric motor - N Armature H 0 Centrifuge rotor ' ' M '' Figure 2 The 450 Meter-Per-Second Gas Centrifuge to be developed within three years - ---• ·1·1111 P KOA-662 -10- The separation in the centrifuge depends on the countercurrent flow of gas relatively near the core to gas relatively near the periphery_ The centrifuges are coll lected in series to attain the desired enrichment and in parallel to get the desired throughput The 3oo·meter-per-second centrifuge plant would require 2400 centrifuges and the 450 meter-per-second centrifuge plant would _require 1200 centrifuges Ideal plant tapers for these plants are sho'WD in Figures 3 and 4 The centrifuge itself' consists of the following components 1 2 a drive motor a bowl and end caps 3 bearings and shafts 4 process gas seals 5 vacuum jacket blast shield fittings and frame In ddition to the centrifuge itself a certain amount ·of auxiliary ·equipment instruments pipi r i g and other items must be installed These items may be divided into the following groups -- - - '· l Electrical Equipment Even though th e operating_ power requirement of the· process is small about 3 megawatts for the 300 meter-per-second centrifuge plan t and 1 megawatt for the 450 meter-per-second plant the following equipment is necessary · a b c Variable frequency motor-generator sets-for accelerat ion of the centrifuges instrumentation f'or controlling the frequency and startup control equipment · · d Direct current motor-generator sets for braking of the centrifuges e Distribution system to individual centrifuges inclu ing automatic controls for starting operating and stopping of each unit Distribution sy tem for process auxiliaries ' ° f 2 r Step-do'WD equipment main switchgea switchyard and switch house High frequency motor-generator sets for normal operation with the required frequency control equipment Process Controls The controls needed for the operation of the centrifuge plant are those required to maintain· steady process gas flows and pressures and those required to insure reliable mechanical operation of the centrifuges as f'ollo ws · -1111111- - I KOA-662 -11- • -- alllifl f ·- slECltM KOA-662 -12- r'· IIIREr a b KOA-662 -13- Process gas fxow·and pressure controllers Bearing oil pressure and temperature monitors with cell shutdown controls c Vibration level monitor with cell shutdown controls d Process as mass spectrometer leak detectors • -·· 3 Uranium Hexafluoride Handling and Process Auxiliaries a a Seal gas system b Casing gas system c Lub_e oil system Cooling water and coolant system e Vacul l ID system r Process gas feed waste and product system g · Refrigeration system d h i r Instrmnent air and building auxiliary systems Process gas purge system 4 l'rocess Gas Piping The process gas piping for ·the centrifuge plant consists of the process gas eaders and control -val es the prqcess gas header compressor the interheader trall$f r liq es the centrifuge unit-process gas lines a n d contrql valves the by-pass hea ders a1 d valves and the heated h der jackets 5 Process Building The centrifuge process building would be of a type similar to the gaseous diffusion plants The building would ave a floor for ·auxiliaries a floor for an operational area a floor as a pipe galleryJ a main centrifuge floor and an overhead gallery for reaching the centrifuges The 300 meter-per-second centrifuge plant would be in a fou r'--story building with about 24 000 f g_ua re f'eet of ground area The 450 meter --per-second centrifuge plant wouJ d be in a t4r-ee-story-buil ding with about_ l Q00 squa re t'ee-t qf ground ar a 6 Outside Auxiliary Byste ms The outside auxiliary systems include such items aa the _recirculating water system a n d cooling tower steam plant mainteI S nce shops lab9ratory etc • • 11c11r 1 '1111 KOA-662 14' ' Centrifuge Operating• _Cost The principle items that make up the operating cost f'or a centrifuge plantar as follows 1 centrifuge·and-auxiliary systems direct operating labor 2 maintenance labor and materials 3 plant utilities cost plant overhead 4 B Feed P la p t A rough optimiza tion of the combination qf plant and feed _required for th 300 meter-per-sec9nd centrifuge piant resulted in a feed rate of 25 tons U per year Since a relatively small facility is required to prqcess this feed and since the cost -of' the ore conceni rate is unknown the same feed rate was used for the 450 meter-per-second centrifuge plant Briefly the process can be des cribed as follows The ore concentrate assaying approximately·60 percent uranium is treated With HNo3 and the uranium is dissolved The f'oilowing chemical rea cticms occur The uranium is purified by solvent extra ction using TEP in _kerosene as _the solve t Extraction and stripping are accomplished in two 4-inch diameter glass columns each approximately 20 feet in height either agitated-or pulse type col s· W -11 suit • Tankage piping valves pumps and the internal liquid contacting echanisms of the colu mn s are of stainless steel The rejected aqueous nitric acid streams raffinate _are neutralizf d -with caustic potash and discarded The purified u ranyl nitr te solution is eyaporated to remove all free water and the h t e of the uranyl nitrate is cal d in an agitated vessel to produce urani trioxide • Stain less· steel equip nent and prqcess piping are requir ed for all phases -of this step The off-gases from the calciners which contain p imarily nitrogen dio ide oxygen and water are piped to t e waste handling area a tr ated with causti potash LCAl-1 · KOA-662 -15- r ' The uranit lll rioxid is fluorinated directly to uranit1m hexafluoride with elemental fluorine using a flame reactor similar to design to the enriched assay Processing unit in K-1420 · --- '--- DELETED ti e ' U'Ill eacted is caught in an ash r eiv b liedto the bottom of the toWE r ma terial · ti J The uranit1m hexafluoride is separated from the product gas stream by batch cold traps mounted vertically in trichlorethyle e baths • Th bath liquid is cooled by coils in which Freon-22 is evaporating The refrigeration system is a 5-ton 2-stage Freon 12-Freon 22 refrigeration unit • The ur um heXE fluoride is transferred out qf·the traps as· a vapor • Al1 items of equipment and-piping in co tact with uraniJllll hexafluoride are constructt 1d -of Monel The 9 xide hopper and the rotary dispersers are made of steel · r Fluorine s prod ced from two 6 000-atr4 ere Monel fluorine cells and hydrogen fluoride is removed from the flu rine stream by sodium fluo ide The fluorine is cotr4 ressed to 40 psig by a Worthington piston compressor The compressed - gas is stored in a 2oo cubic foot Monel -tank and as withdr wn required · F_luorine piping can be of stee HyQrogen from t e generE tor is pumped ·to the waste disposal system by a rqtary lobe CoJII l'essor Fluorine disposal is cco lished by-m s of a PQtassiumhydroxide SP ray tower Provision is also made in the fluorination system tor evacuation General de ontanp nation_facilities are also avai La bie C• Metal Component Faci i ty d DELETED V c t '5 J a j 91CltlE _ i KOA-662 -16 DELETED Casting skulls will be b ed o oxide leached extracted and ret ed to wet chemistry for precipitation Ma chining chips will be briquetted and recycled to redt ction All massive metal will be returned to casting • The wet chemistry and reduction salvage will be d iscarded · '· •- -- -11111 - l - - -· --- KOA-662 -17TABLE II 300 METER-PER-SECOND GAS CENTRIFUGE P 'T u s Experience Construction Manpower ·and Scheduling Capital Costs Centrifuges installed Piping Ins trumentation and controls Electrical system Process auxiliaries Utilities Building $14 ·304 000 2 400 000 5 400 000 816 000 4 200 000 480 000 1 200 000 Direct construction costs $28 800 000 Engineering design and inspection In irect construction costs r-- Men Peak Manpower Engineering Non manual Manual 50 150 Boo Man-Months Total Manpower Eng_ineering Non _manual Manual 2 200 000 5 000 000 900 3 000 11 000 $36 000 000 Total Til le Re quired 3 years Operating_Manpower and Costs Dollars Per Year 96 0· Direct opera ing _labor Maintenance labor 200 Auxiliary systems labo 7 12 at $3 hr $ 576 ooo 1 200 000 72 000 j 1 848 ooo Direct· la bor Overhead ·Wo ks laboratory technician 8 at $3 hr Technical supervision 24 at $6 hr Technical and scientifi staff 20 at $6 Total labor 1 848 0_00 1 8 000' _ 288 000 240 000 $4 272 000 Maintenance mat rial Utilities an a awc iliary system material Power _2400 kw at 5 mills kw I 1 200 000 120 000 105 120 Total mat rial $1 425 120 Total $5 697 120 - - p 5 0 ·70 --------c 1 ' I · 111111 KOA-662 -18- TABLE III 450 METER-PER-SECOND GAS CENTRIFUGE PLANT u S Experience Construction Manpower and Scheduling Capital Costs Centrifuges ill Stalled Piping Instrumentation and controls Electric system Proc ss auxiliaries Utilities Building fr $2 200 000 500 000 990 000 110 000 230 060 70 000 430 000 Direct con1 3truction costs $4 530 000 Engineering design and inspection Indirect construction costs 400 000-960 000 Total Men Peak Manpower Engineering 20 Non manual 60 Manual 200 Man-Months Total Manpower Engineering Non manual Manual 400 800 2 000 Time Required 3 yea rs $5 970 000 · Operating Manpower and Costs Dollars Per Year ·J Direct opetating labor 32 ' Maintenance labor 60 L Auxilia ry systems labor 4 at $3 hr Direct labor Overhead Works laboratory technician 4 at $3 hr Technical supervision 12 at $6 br Technical and scientific staff 10 at $6 br t O $ 576 ooo JP ' i t 576 000 24 000 144 ooo 120 000 $1 440 000 Total labor Maintenance ma terial Utilities and auxili ry system material Po wer 1200 kw at 5 mills kw 300 000 40 000 Total ma terial 393 000 53 000 $1 833 000 ' $ 192 000 360 000 24 000 - _··· J 7 -- l 91CPII KOA-662 l9- -- TABLE IT FEED·PI Alf1 u s Experience Construction Manpower and Scheduling Capital Costs Men Installed Equipment $ Dissolver xtraction columns Evap rator and calciner Fluorinator Fluorine system Auxiliary chemistry systems 5 600 38 500 28 000 Peak Manpower E ineering Non manual Manual 42 000 112 000 51 800 6 8 45 Man-Months $ 277 900 r- Piping Instrumentation Utilities Maintenance f'acili ty Adm inistratiYe laboratory Building· Total Manpower Engi11eering Non manual Manual 126 500 45 900 30 000 20 000 25 000 250 000 Direct construction costs Time Required $ 775 000 Engineering design and inspection Indirect construction costs ' Total 100 000 215 300 $1 090 600 Operating Manpower and Costs Dollars Per Year 40-Rour Week Operation Labor 6 chemical operators maintenance 1 laboratory technician 1 clerk 2 supervisors at $6 hr 2 at $3 hr $60 000 24 000 $ r 84 ooo 108 144 360 18 months 1 KOA-662 20- r'• TABLE IV CONTINUED Operating Manpower and Costs Dollars Per Year 40 Hour Week Operation continued r ' ---- • Overhead Chemicals Maintenance materials Other mater ials Utilities $ 84 ooo Total $289 910 90 520 17 520 4 380 9 490 U llllf - KOA 662 ' '21 r·T ABLE V METAL COMPONENT FACILITY u S Experience Construction Manpower Capital CoE tB 11 and Scheduling Wet che try process Redu tion bomb a Ca ting equipment $33 000 3 000 26 000 Ma chining and testing 28 000 f'acility Peak Ma Iqiower Engineering Non manual 2 1 Manual 4 Man-Months $ 90 000 Piping 10 000 2 000 22 000 24 000 Instrumentation Utilities r- I Build ing Direct const r uctiori costs $148 ooo Total Manpow r Engineering 18 Non _man-qal 18 Ma nu al 48 Time Required Engineering design 20 000 and inspection Indirect construction Total 34 ooo $202 000 Operating Manpower and-Costs Della rs Per Yea r 40-Hotµ Week Operation Labor 2 operators l 1 maintenanceJ l engineer 1 supervisor at $3 hr $18 000 at $6 hr 24 000 $ 42 000 overhead Materials Total - Men Installed Equipment - 42 000 '25 000 $109 000 #1111-1'1' 12 mon ths __j_ KOA-662 -22 'IV A DISCUSSION Feasibility of Clandestine Operation As ind icated above any nation in groups X Y and Z cQuld if sufficiently motivated build a gas centrifuge plant which would produce sufficient · ·f Lssio J le material for the COJ f ltruction of a nuclear weapon • class X countr y could build a_clandel ltine cascade containing eith -r the presently developed 300 meter-per-second c ntrifuge or containing centrifuges-of the advanced design with no outside assistance and with little drain on its economy A class X country may be seen to have several la r ge universities In general all have conducted research of va rying descrip tionpertaining to problems in isotope separation J t appears quite evident that any type X country has the experienced sci•entists and engineers necessary to bring a centrifuge plant into s-q ccessf'ul operation Similarly a cl ass X country -would have no problem in ob aining the services of skilled machinists for constructing the centrifuges nor in recruiting t r-ai qed operators and maintenance men for running the pl ant Tq e special mate rials requi ed for the copstruction ot the isotope separation plant and related facilities would moat likely be readily available in a class x country or1 if not· could be purchased wi th9ut arousing any suspicion due to the high l el of domestic indu trial activity For example mass spectrometers if' needed could be purchased by a cl ass X country Sa fJ through a university1 for its rese ch departments without inviting attention Furthermore the countries in this category already have or may be expected in the·ve ry near future to have 11uclear power programs Thus these countries will the 'e fore have a valid requirement for uranium -ore It would not be possible to detect tl e small iversion of -qranium necessary to provide f'eed to a small isotope sep ration cascade under tl ese circumstances A A class Y country may be cl j aracterized as a country which possesses technological competence but which has limited industrial activity A class Y country could not build a centrifuge plant without some outside assistance however it could probably adequately disguise the pature of its activities from ·the outside world A class Y country may be a su med to 4ave a sufficien number of scientists a l d engineers to ring a centrifuge to successf'u l completion Since these men may lack specific experie11ce of' this nature it may be assumed that it would take appreciably longer for a _class Y country i o chieve succes ful operation than a class X countrywould _require A c 1 ass Y country -would ve- some dif'ficulty in r ecrniting the skilled maohini$tS operators maintenance men necessary_-tp construct and -ope ate the i otope 1 leparation plant- A class Y count ry would in all likelihood· have· to · impot t much of· the hardware necessa cy· tb fahr Lcate the centrifuges and also some of the auxiliary equipment required for tl -e plant The material o f' construction of the centrifuge bowl would probably ha v-e to be imported _ Howe ver since further machining could b done after delivery the us to which this material ia to be ut may not _be evident • A class Y coun try would probably -also have to import seals and oearings motor-g nerator sets for high f'requency -current process I_ - -- KO A-662 23• control eq ipment _mass spectrometers and perhaps other items of specialized q ature · Thel e orders could b distributed among a large number of'· vendors ·in order to prevent detection of the coru tru ction effort Class Y countries may·well have access to uranium ore either by virtue of a domestic nuclear power pro gram or their own natural resc ni rces If not they would have to procure it elsewher and this may provide a method of det ction Th ere· are however many countries able to export Ul anium ol 'e and one should remember that 25 tons is a relatiyely small q ti ty-_ of ore • -A « lass Z country would find the const t Uction and o peration of a centrifuge ·plant a difficult task Sueh_a·plant would be a burden-on the economy of a clas Z country but not so much as to prevent the co try fr m und r takipg the project A elas s Z country· would need a grea t deal of outside assistance both in manpqwer and in material in order to bring a centrifuge pl a nt tci succesf lful completion Countries in t qis category wotQ_d probably need technical advisors from abroad c9mpetent scientists and engineers to aid in the dev lopment-of an o able separation cascade - Ope r'ators and maintenance men would ha veto be tr ined for their particular jobs A class Z coi µitry wm 1ld probably not have su ff'icient skiJ 1ed machini E ts to fabri ate the centrifuges It would be expected · therefore that a type z country would P'Q l'Cbase _prefapricated centrifuge a eir alternative would be o ra1 n _the necessary ·machinists and to· p chase the la thes drill pl_ esses ap d·other 1 ho_p equiJ ment which would be required for centrifuge man-q f'acture In addition to the centrifuges almo $t all o f the auxiliary equipment required for the plant would have to be p-qr ased from foreign vendors e power requ i rement of the centrifuise plant wh Lch was of little importan e in tb e case of cl ess X an Y countries would be an a ppz eciable percentage 2 to 5 percent of' the el ctrical power usage in a typical class Z country thel 'JllOreJ the pla nt itself whi-ch would occµpy about o --half' a re of' ground would probably be somewhat mq re d iffictil t to hide in a noni dustrial c·ountry In short 1 it appeiµ-s that a class ·z co try could not build a completely clandestin e n-µclear W apO ns facility _ It equld ho e er 1 W ith the golla poration of a cl ass X coruitry build such a plan · but even then it woul_d have much more difficUlty i n _hiding it than wou J d an X 9r Y country · · · s • Deyelop Uent Time A lthough it has been assumed in this re pqrt that a 300 meter-per-second c ntrifuge has passed twough t4e deve opment stage and ·is currently operab le it is important to poi tit o ut th t this assumption should not be interpreted to mean _that a cascade of s ch centrifuges_is c rrently operable Up to the present time there has been no indicatiop that anyone has_successfu lly_run even two intercODI ected centrifuges much less anything_appro ching a useful isotope se aration cascade It has b en assumed th t acy country desiring to build a centrifuge cascade would if neci ss a ry fir t purchase a prototype centrifuge The- lass X _and Y countries _ could then duplicate this prototype and a minimum of development effort on the centri fuge itseif' woul d be required The time required tor the development a f the centrifuge plant re fe rs therefore to the time required to solve the only J KOA-662 24_ -- __ I problems encountered when one attempts to connect-large nuzqbers of' centr fuges _together and run them in the series- arallel arrangement w hich con sti tutes the separation cascade These problems a primari i_y those of plant design and process control The dey-elopme qt of' a t iuccess ful 450 meter- per-sec9nd centrifuge depe -ds to a iarge exte t on the develo ment of a-suit ble material of construction for the centri fuge bowl capable of withstanding the higher peripheral speed • _ It is felt that a devel op-ine t pr ogra m of this natur would b e carried out only i ri a class X c-ountry It has been postulated that tb re years would be ·r e4uired f'or class- X country to achieve this goal Thus Y and·Z countries will achieve 450 meter-per-seeond-centrifuges only_after they -have 1 een developed by a c ass X eountry and then· only if they can obt_ain ei th -the centrifuges or the IJ' S terial_ for their coni itruction from a class X_country i ro e- s Controls At t present time there is _no reliable i q formation about wba _t a cent rif'uge separat i o µ piant control system should be ii ke _ TJ J ere is· no data f' tcm an experimental cascade and no particula r-theoretieal studies on this problem A centritug-e plant be made hydrody qamically stab le i_n the_ 1 1ame $ens as a gaseous-diffusion plant For instance -slight change in speed of all the centrifuges would result in a large surge of' process gas that would have to be removed by proper controls on gronJ s -of centrifuges ± n pa ral 1 e L Futup_e developments will have to q etermine w qeth r the -variations in t he f'lows and_ inven tories between individual centrifuges are harmful enough t o ma k i t cie lirable to add additional controls These va riations be'f wee q i ndivi-_ dual een tri_fuges woUld result i p a loss in the plant separative ca pac ity can r- The amount of co trol that should be included in a centrifuge plant would be deter min ed ideally_ by a n eeon9mic balance between the cost of add itional controls and the v lue of the lost product on A centrifuge pla _11t to pr oduee w apons should be conserv1 tt l 1 ely desigl_led be cause of the high ya lue of production that is bombs D Q peratti on_and Maintenance Be_c use of the lack of kn wledg r e rq ing the relia p-ility of tn e ce n trifuge oy _ r extended periods -of -operation a really ·meazµ e timat o f' operating and -ma l nt µa nc e requirements is izrq ossible_ _ ·The _ operE1 ting _lEJ bor l s deter mined moren by-the necessity_ o f the ava ila b te E ta f'f being a bl e to· handle rt · abno l periods of trouble rather ·than _normal p ri_ods of quiet opera tion U q til-reliab l e operating •dat13 _is available it would be adyisable to allow for a n adeqt -a te staff' of ·operators and perlla_ps la t it may be r_educed Similar o siderati 07 1-s apply - o maintenance ----- KOA-662 -25 -- rE Centrifuge Manufacturing Plant It has been assumed that the development program resulting in the construction and testing of a prototype centrifuge is essentially complete i t present in the case of a 300 meter-per-second centrifuge and will be_ complete three years hence in the case of a 450 meter-per second centrifuge After the prototype design is accepted rnanufacturfng and inspecting p r -ocedures would have to be determined A few machines may be made as preproduction models at a higher-than-production unit cost in order to test manufacturing procedures Construction of a centrifuge manufacturing plant wouid have to be started concurrent with that of the centrifuge separation plant De irably the centrifuge manufacturing plant would be finished in time to coordinate the manuf'acture of the first production centrifuges with the installation of centrifuges which would start about midway in the construction period of the centrifuge separation plant The rather extensive manufacturing facilities required would in general have little fqture economic value and would have to be changed against the centrifuge This additional cost incr ases · the · ba ac centrifuge cost by 25 percent • r· -- ·- - I --- I v CORRELATION OF INDUSTRIAL CAP ABILITY OF NATIONS To estimate the order in which the various nations can be expected to achieve an isoto_pe separation process and the time required for this accomplishment it is nec·ess y to choose some feature or features of a r ation' s economy which are indicati of that nation's i q dustrial competence • The two such eatures which eflect all areas of modern industrial activity are the consumption of electrical e ergy and the consumption of teel Further- more the per pita value of these quantities provides a measure-of t4e level or relative effectiveness o f application of a nation's industry since J er capita consumption is itself an empirical statement of demonstrated_-effectiveness Accordingly the following quantities were defined · Relative Industrial Size S r Relative Indu trial Level L Steel Consumption • Steel Cons wn ption Electrical Energy Consumption U S Elec Energy Co Q Sumption U P-er c·api ta Steel Consumption U S Per Capita Steel Consumption Relativ e Industrial Capability Per Capita Electric Energy Consumption · u S ·• Per Capita Elec Energy Consumption · ys •L The Relative Industrial Capability RIC -was then related to actual time cost ' and man power requirements by-correlating the industrial e xperience of' nations for· which such data were available with the computed RIC' s -of those nations The results of the correlations are sho-wn in Figur 5 in which f ctors for converting_U $ requirements into the requirements qf other nations are shown for man-months required for buildirig a plant the time which will elapse between inception and end-of co ry3truction the number of men engaged in construc_tion or operation of the· plant applicable to peak work force in the case of' co truction tl l e construction or capital cost and the annual opera ting cost In e ch case an estimate mad e for the U S may be multi plied by the appro priate factor of Figure 5 to obtain the corresponding estimate for a nation for which the RIC b a s been computed Tb e RIC was computed for a variety qf nations and i hese are located on Figure 5 Also sho1ro are the _zones which define the X Y and Z categories of nations referred to in this report -1111111- 1 KOA-662 -27Statistical data used in computing the RIC was obtained from 11 Statistical Abstract of the United States ri which contains international statistical data drawn chiefly ·from tne United Nations Statistical Office · This gency 1 s annual publication statistical Yearbook provides a wide variety of detailed statistical data ACKNOWLEDGMENT we wish to acknqwledge the contribt1 tions of M JJa nig_a n d D preparation o f' thi_s l l ort • A Hayf'ord in the r ---- U S De11artment of' Commerce Bureau of the Census stati1 tical Abstract of the United -States rr- 79th anr ual editi_on U• S Government Printing Office 1958 - • I •• __ ___ - · - - 0 1- I 9 a - - K0A-662· 0 _ j- __ J 0 0 -28- -f C I ff 0 -f 7 - 6 5 - A 3 - 2 ' ' · · lo - - t ·9 a- 7 C e 5 r- · · - I ' 0 ·• 4 i' -f 1 3 2 t 9 c a 7 6 5 - 7 --- J • ' - f f C ' 0 4 II1 C 3 I ca 2 ' I 'i ' 0 0 O·