Date

Jun 14, 1977

Description

“Problems” experienced during an Ivory Item exercise on 1 June 1977 led the Joint Staff to recommend that Secretary of Defense Brown and other principals receive briefings on warning systems and SIOP and “decision handbook procedures.” During the exercise, the NMCC’s Deputy Director for Operations was to be “conference manager” and lead a discussion of SIOP execution procedures from a “bolt out of the blue” perspective. There was confidence that the DDO could do that well, but it was less clear whether “they can answer questions on the ‘consequences of execution details’” or about the SIOP’s nuances. Smith reported that he had spoken with Admiral Staser Holcomb about Harold Brown’s thoughts on “exercises involving the President.”

According to the attached material, the SIOP included three alternatives in the event of a surprise attack situation. To estimate fatalities for the surprise attack alternative responses, the Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff used the Comprehensive Blast and Radiation Assessment (COBRA) computer program that “predicts the expected fatalities from both prompt effects (blast and initial radiation) and delayed effects (fallout for a six-month period) for the specific attack option executed.”

Other scenarios concerned “non-time constrained” situations involving a developing international crisis where nuclear employment options could be considered. On the latter, Harold Brown commented that “it would be useful for the President and the VP to spend a morning (at NMCC or ANCC) going through such a scenario.”

On page three of this document, a 16 June handwritten note by Lieutenant General William Y. Smith, Chairman Brown’s assistant, relayed “some thoughts Sec Def has about exercises involving the President.” Using another term for the “Decision Handbook,” Smith wrote, “It boils down to Sec Def, you, Dep Sec Def, Brzezinski getting together to discuss various Soviet attack options and possible US responses, how the ‘Black Book’ helps and is used, etc.” (Note: After his retirement from the military, General Smith became a member of the National Security Archive’s original advisory board.)

Source

RG 218, Records of George S. Brown, box 30, 385 Exercise Ivory Item

Document published in following posting(s):

Ivory Item: Carter First U.S. President to Participate in Nuclear Drill

May 31, 2024